Last home game

T

The Big Tease

DUKE SUCKS
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It has been a good spot for many teams. I am going to post these and then research how many seniors each team has then post that...hopefully from there we can decide which teams this will play against and play for.


Kansas
Rutgers
Southern Illinois
Dayton
Butler
Memphis
Oregon
San Diego
Seton Hall
Illinois Chic
NC Charlotte
W Kentucky
Florida St
Charleston
Fresno St
Nebraska
Detroit
Austin Peay
Santa Barbara
Oregon St
N Mex St
E Washington
Drexel
Davidson
Indiana St
Wright St
S Alabama
Ohio
Wash St
E Tenn ST
Tenn Tech
UTEP
So Miss


If I have left some out or made any mistakes, please correct me

Thanks
 
T

The Big Tease

DUKE SUCKS
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OK...I did the work on this, hopefully it will help us. I obviously dont know who starters are on all teams, but I can definatly tell who is important on a team, so I will list all seniors on the stat sheet this year, and mention how many of those are valid contributors and those that are role players that rarely get in the game.


Kansas - 2 starters and a role player(Collison Heinrich)
Rutgers - 2 starters (one is the best player)
S Illinois- 2 contributors and 2 role players
Dayton- 3 contributors
Butler- 4 contributors and 2 role players
Memphis- 3 contributors and 1 role player
Oregon- 1 contributor and 1 role player
San Diego- 4 contributors and 1 role player
Seton Hall- 3 role players
Illinois-Chic- 1 contributor and 3 role players
Charlotte- 1 contributor and 1 role player
W Kentucky- 3 contributors
Florida St- 1 contributor and 3 role players
Charleston- their best player and 2 role players
Fresno St- 3 contributors and a role player
Nebraska- Their best player and a role player
Detroit- 2 contributors and 2 role players
Austin Peay- 2 role players
Santa barbara- 1 contributor and 1 role player
Oregon St- 3 contributors (w/best player) and a role player
New Mex St- 2 contributors and a role player
E Washington- 2 contributors and a role player
Drexel- Their 2 best players and a role player
Davidson- 3 contributors (w/best player) and a role player
Indy St.- 1 contributor and a role player
Wright St- 4 contributors (w/best player) and a role player
S Alabama- 2 contributiors
Ohio- Thier 3 best players, but one is hurt
Wash St- 3 of thier better players and 2 role players
E Tenn ST- 1 contributor and 2 role players
Tenn Tech- 5 contributors
UTEP- no one to speak of
So Miss- 1 contributor
 
B

buddy

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I ditto what Major Marty just said.

Stuff like this is not easy to put together and takes a lot of time and effort.

In addition, this is very valuable info.
 
T

The Big Tease

DUKE SUCKS
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Next step....I use a website, which I wont mention, BUT the guy uses information and compares a teams home performance against their road performance. Then he creates that teams overall "home court advantage" Because each team is different, you cant just add 4 points just becasue they are at home. Some teams, believe it or not, play worse at home!!! here are those numbers of the teams playing their last home game in order of the best team at home to the worst team at home. The number listed is the actual home court advantage of that team based upon stats from this year.


Southern Miss +15.25
Wright State +13.76
Nebraska +11.87
Florida St +11.49
Austin Peay +10.07
Indiana St +9.86
W Kentucky +9.75
Tenn Tech +9.65
Washington St +8.72
Kansas +8.36
Oregon +7.76
Charlotte +7.57
S Illinois +7.45
Butler +7.12
Seton Hall +6.96
Santa Barbara +6.88
Dayton +6.67
E Washington +6.45
UTEP +5.79
N Mex St +5.12
S Alabama +4.60
Detroit +3.91
Fresno St +3.83
Ohio +3.63
Ill-Chic +2.34
davidson +2.00
Rutgers +1.35
Memphis +0.07

Now believe it or not, these teams play worse at home!

E Tenn ST -1.80
Drexel -3.89
San Diego -5.22
Oregon St -6.97
Charleston -7.09
 
P

P3uttt

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Many thanks here too BT....using your extensive research I am going to go small on Oregon St -1 which I hope to be a nice senior party tonight. :)
 
T

The Big Tease

DUKE SUCKS
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Now...you will have to be your own judge to interpret these ratings. For instance....College of Charleston is a very good team. BUT they have a terrible home court advantage rating. It is not neccesarily because they are a horrible home team....they are an excellent road team. Check their road ATS record. I think it is 9-0. They are 10-2 at home.....but they are 10-4 on the road. So the number is not neccassarily indicitive to how well they play on the home....the number can be used to determine if a team can cover on the road.

Oregon St for instance has a rating of -6.97. It is not because they are a good road team....but they are certainly better on the road. They have trouble winning winable games at home....example UCLA the other night.
 
T

The Big Tease

DUKE SUCKS
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Alright so, now I know who is playing their last home game. I also know who the good home teams are. Now I need to see who those teams are playing and see if they also struggle on the road. You can do this by using thier opponants home court advantage number...and figure that if that team has a high home court advantage number, that team is pretty dependant to get wins at home, and may struggle on the road. Here are the games we are looking into. I will list the home court advantage of each team in ( )

Okie St (+1.45) at Kansas (+8.36)

Notre Dame (+4.01) at Rutgers (+1.35)

Creighton (+6.14) at Southern Ill (+7.45)
***This one looks like a play***

Fordham (-.66) at Dayton (+6.67)

Wisc-Milw (+12.27) at Butler (+7.12)
***BIG TIME PLAY***

Cincinnati (+2.58) at Memphis (+.04)

UCLA (-8.92) at Oregon (+7.76)

Gonzaga (+.61) at San Diego (-5.22)
***Definately not a play***

West VA (-.28) at Seton Hall (+6.96)

Youngstown St (+15.86) at Illinois Chicago (+2.34)
***Probably a play***

DePaul (+4.68) at Charlotte (+7.57)
***Looks like a play***

Mid Tenn St (-2.18) at W KY (+9.75)

Virginia (+7.16) at Florida St (+11.49)
***Definately a play***

Ga Southern (+.69) at Charleston (-7.09)
***Doesnt look like a play***

Nevada (+6.08) at Fresno (+3.83)

Iowa St (+4.48) at Nebraska (+11.87)
***Looks like a play***

Cleveland St (+4.34) at Detroit (+3.91)

Morehead St (+2.15) at Austin Peay (+10.07)
***Statistically not a great play, but I like it anyways***

UC Irvine (-1.63) at Santa Barbara (+6.88)
***Also, not great numbers-wise, but I like it***

USC (+2.25) at Oregon St (-6.97)

N Texas (-6.71) at New Mex St (+5.12)

Idaho St (+9.49) at E Washington (+6.45)
***Looks like a play***

George Mason (+4.59) at Drexel (-3.89)

VMI (+1.21) at Davidson (+2.00)

SMU (+4.58) at UTEP (+5.79)

S Florida (+11.84) at Southern Miss (+15.25)
***GREAT PLAY***

E Illinois (+8.63) at Tenn Tech (+9.65)
***GOOD PLAY***

App St (+2.65) at E Tenn St (-1.80)

Washington (+5.25) at Wash St (+8.72)

Marshall (+6.65) at Ohio (+3.63)

N Orleans (+14.11) at S Alabama (+4.60)
**Possible Play***

Wisc GB (+14.10) at Wright St (+13.76)
***DEFINATELY A PLAY***

Ill St (+3.06) at Indy St (+9.86)
 
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prospector

prospector

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Big Tease,

just to be clear ...

we are always looking for a play on the home team

and there is reason to believe that "last home game" is a good play

is that correct?

every angle that gives us an edge is worth the look. and this one certainly requires a lot of effort.

appreciate all the hard effort!
thanks!
 
T

The Big Tease

DUKE SUCKS
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Mar 9, 2000
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All system plays follow:

Florida St -3.5
S Illinois PICK
Butler -5.5
Illinois Chic -19.5
Charlotte -7
Nebraska -1
Austin Peay -2.5
Santa barbara -5
E Wash -11
Tenn Tech -9
S Alabama -5
Wright St -4.5
So Miss -1.5
 
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D

djv

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I believe you may have for got one. So Miss? thks for all this work it is real info as i call it.
 
T

The Big Tease

DUKE SUCKS
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Definately a system worth playing from here on out.


Of the 33 teams that were playing their last home game today...those teams went 28-5 straight up:eek: :eek: :eek:


Those teams were 21-12 ATS


My selections which were based on a home court advantage figure as well went 9-4 ATS, BUT the 4 losses were all on favs that missed a cover by a couple of points (S Alabama, Wright State, Butler)


Looks like a good system, so I will see if it pulls any plays for tomorrow.
 
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