League Situation Trends.

[MrChristo]

These are from a database of all games going back to 1998.

League: 18-4 OVER (av. 48.2) as home 7+ favs off away 14+ loss. [NO]
11-0 OVER (av. 53.6) in that sit. when total is 40+!! [NO]
Also a mediocre 3-8 ATS in that situation. (Av. win 4.2)

League: 4-11 ATS (av. LOSS 0.5) home fav, total 40+ off a 14+ ATS loss as away dog. [NO]
Also, NO 0-4 (av. loss 17.6!!!) home fav off a 10+ loss!
NO: 3-11 as fav of 3-9 points.

League: 15-6-1 (av. loss 4.6) away 7+ dogs off away SU win. (Houst)

Scary, but playing Houston +8 and over 40.5 :scared

League: 5-27 SU! (Av. loss 9.7) home 3+ dogs off away 14+ ATS loss as dog. (Ariz.)
1-9 SU (av. loss 7.4) when total 44+.
Ariz: 4-14 SU (5-13 ATS..av. loss 8.8) as home dogs <7.
League: 28-12 SU (Av. win 7.5) away 3+ fav off home 14+ ATS win as fav. (Seattle)

Playing Seattle -4.5 (But will probably add to a teaser.)

League: 2-18 SU! (Av. loss 13.6) away 10+ dog off 14+ home loss. (Cinci)
Cinci: 2-8-1 (Av. loss 12.5) away off 14+ ATS loss.
Oak: 5-0 OVER (av. 53.4) as home 10+ fav.

Playing over 45. (Tease Oak -6)

League: 8-0 OVER this no. (Av. 51.7!!) away 7+ dog off home win but ATS loss! (Carolina!!)
Not sure if I can pull the trigger on the Caro/TB over, but stopping playing the under

League: 22-5 SU...(But only 8-17-2 ATS. Av. win 7.7) as home 7+ favs off SU win as 3+ dog. [Minni]
13-4 SU...(but only 3-12-2 ATS!! Av. win 4.7) home 7+ favs off 10+ ATS away win as 3+ dog. [Minni]
League: 3-13 SU (Av. loss 12.7) away 7+ dog off 21+ SU loss as dog. [Chic]
1-5-1 (Av. loss 13.0) away 7+ dog off 21+ ATS away loss. [Chic]
3-21 SU (Av. loss 11.0) away 7+ dog off any 21+ ATS loss. [Chic]

Tease Minni -2

League: 27-2 SU (Av. win 13.3) as home 7+ fav off home 10+ win! [NYG]!
18-0 SU (Av. 14.9) home 7+ fav off 10+ ATS win. [NYG]!!
League: 0-5 SU (Av. loss 12.4) away 7+ dog off upset home loss of 14+. [Dallas]
4-26 SU (Av. loss 10.9) away 7+ dog off home 14+ ATS loss. [Dallas]
1-7 SU (Av. loss 10.0) if they were fav's. [Dallas]

Play Giants -7.5

So: Houston +8
Houston @ NO over 40.5
Oak/Cinci over 45
Caro @ Tampa over 34.5
NYG -7.5

Tease: Seattle +1.5, Oak -6, Minni -2, NYG -1.5 (4.00 or +300)

**NB: For those interested in playing Washington this week...
...League is 3-12 SU (av. loss 7.0) away off a Thursday night game!

Good Luck all

 

[Vicc Inzagio]

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very interestin' MC, good luck in wk2 !!


vicc

 

[SmashMouth]

Great stuff

 

[PAWAQATSI]

You have been busy Christo!!

Still waiting for your Brownlow thoughts in the other thread.

Good luck with the NFL dude.

 

[MrChristo]

Adding....

Adding....

...Miami @ NYJ under 37.

No trends at work here (except Miami have big history of low scoring second weeks), but expecting a low scoring, tight game.

Also managed to get NO/Houst over 40.

Depending of late line movements (or lack of them ) Carolina/Tampa over will be a double play.

 

[kickserv]

good luck with your plays there Aussy man


good job with the info......but I coulda told ya Seattle was the play.....of course I guess I'm not the all knowing one...so glad ya backed it up with stats


go get em

 

[MrChristo]

Thanks guys. :toast:

Only a single play on the Tampa/Caro over....Got it at 34 tho

I saw last week someone (sorry...can't think who!) was posting 'results' from Madden 2004.
I ran week 2 myself on the PC, and there was one very interesting 'result'.

Houston 31
New Orleans 7

Geez I hope the Saints can scrape together another FG to hit my over as well!

 

[MrChristo]

One more....

One more....

Teams who were shutout in their last game as a favorite are 13-5 O/U. New England is also 10-5 (O/U) off a divisional game the last 3 years and lastly, the league is 10-0 (O/U) since 2001 when the home teams (Philadelphia) last game was a 14 or more points road loss to a non-division opponent and their opponent lost by at least 7 points in their last game.


Philli/NE over 37.5

Can't take credit for this one....comes from a UK based pay service. Usually goes stright in the bin, but actually like the look of this one.
Will go with it.

Right then. That's me done. Hope everyone has a great day.