Just curious what everyone thinks will happen on Monday to the stock price if there is a buyout? Scenarios if buyer or government backed?
Lehman
- Thread starter Doughboy
- Start date
not sure Lehman has been a train wreck stating for a few months (okay most of 2008 the stock has been going in one direction), that everything was fine, and then going anywhere to raise funds.
the banks looking at it do not have large amounts of money to spend especially Barclays and they will want to write the real estate loans down, maybe 10-20 billion more in writedowns.... who knows for sure.
would believe the price goes below $3, and closer to zero. the wild card is what the governement does and how much money they are willing to backstop for a deal... if it was not for the govt. Bears sharesholders probably would have got 0 instead of $10.
after all of this is over there will be another debate wether the govt. should have played in part in back stopping these deals.... for now believe they acted correctly in Bears case...though some great points can be made on the other side of the agrugment.
LEH goes to below $3 close to zero, then they look around and see who is next..... not sure but would not own MER. at least until things become more clear.
thanks
selkirk
the banks looking at it do not have large amounts of money to spend especially Barclays and they will want to write the real estate loans down, maybe 10-20 billion more in writedowns.... who knows for sure.
would believe the price goes below $3, and closer to zero. the wild card is what the governement does and how much money they are willing to backstop for a deal... if it was not for the govt. Bears sharesholders probably would have got 0 instead of $10.
after all of this is over there will be another debate wether the govt. should have played in part in back stopping these deals.... for now believe they acted correctly in Bears case...though some great points can be made on the other side of the agrugment.
LEH goes to below $3 close to zero, then they look around and see who is next..... not sure but would not own MER. at least until things become more clear.
thanks
selkirk
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LEH is bankrupt and their shares are close to zero 21 cents.
MER was bought out for $29 a share on Sunday by BAC. though it is an all stock deal so the final price will depend. MER closed 17.06. +.01
thought MER was also going to head close to zero, much like AIG seems to be doing. read some analyst reports and they believe it is a great move (for the most part by BAC). BAC wanted, needed a brokerage and they have a great retail operation. the only problem I see is that BAC could have got MER for less than $10 if they had waited a week or two.
would mean less share to issue for the deal...some people claim they did not want to risk another firm taking a run at MER however most large financial invesment firms would not have the balance sheet, and it is next to impossible to finance any deal at this time. probably a good long term move, but they really should have waited and got a much better deal. BAC 26.55 -7.19%
now have to see if the fed drops rates by 25 to 50 basis points.... would hold them steady however they may drop them to help the financials out even though it would be only temporary help.
thanks
selkirk
MER was bought out for $29 a share on Sunday by BAC. though it is an all stock deal so the final price will depend. MER closed 17.06. +.01
thought MER was also going to head close to zero, much like AIG seems to be doing. read some analyst reports and they believe it is a great move (for the most part by BAC). BAC wanted, needed a brokerage and they have a great retail operation. the only problem I see is that BAC could have got MER for less than $10 if they had waited a week or two.
would mean less share to issue for the deal...some people claim they did not want to risk another firm taking a run at MER however most large financial invesment firms would not have the balance sheet, and it is next to impossible to finance any deal at this time. probably a good long term move, but they really should have waited and got a much better deal. BAC 26.55 -7.19%
now have to see if the fed drops rates by 25 to 50 basis points.... would hold them steady however they may drop them to help the financials out even though it would be only temporary help.
thanks
selkirk
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- Feb 12, 2000
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Personally, I think BAC is a great long-term buy after today's sell-off. I'm currently looking at selling $25 puts for $1.00 expiring this Friday.
For the long run, BAC at $24 is a good price to own this at, imo.
Add in that currently the October $25 puts are selling at $2.40, you are virtually looking at owning BAC for $21.60.
For the long run, BAC at $24 is a good price to own this at, imo.
Add in that currently the October $25 puts are selling at $2.40, you are virtually looking at owning BAC for $21.60.
Dawgball would just stay out of the way for now. though large gains can be made in a recovery and you never know, just do not want to go long in the same week as two one goes bankrupt and the other a forced sale.
also AIG is going to zero, (well when a stock loses half the value in one day never a good sign.)... BAC may turn out to be winner and they now have all the pieces except they paid too much for MER, probably by at least 50%.
also what is on MER balance sheet the market has given its verdict. BAC may have looked it over but there is still fear. Have not bought or sold puts on financials for a few months, (most of this year). like some of the stocks just hate the nieghbourhood.....for now.
thanks
selkirk
also AIG is going to zero, (well when a stock loses half the value in one day never a good sign.)... BAC may turn out to be winner and they now have all the pieces except they paid too much for MER, probably by at least 50%.
also what is on MER balance sheet the market has given its verdict. BAC may have looked it over but there is still fear. Have not bought or sold puts on financials for a few months, (most of this year). like some of the stocks just hate the nieghbourhood.....for now.
thanks
selkirk
AIG Big drop in pre market today--might not fit into "investment" catagory but have made wagers with a lot less risk reward prospect.
On the prmise of Ins Co taking care of their own made wager before the bell at anything under $2 and got 1000 shares @ $1.75
Your order to buy 1000 of AIG has been executed at $1.7500. Reference Number XXXXXXXXX
On the prmise of Ins Co taking care of their own made wager before the bell at anything under $2 and got 1000 shares @ $1.75
Your order to buy 1000 of AIG has been executed at $1.7500. Reference Number XXXXXXXXX
decided to sell 400 shares and get 600 free.
Your order to sell 400 of AIG has been executed at $4.2300. Reference Number
Your order to sell 400 of AIG has been executed at $4.2300. Reference Number
fortune favours the bold
both trades would have had a good start today... will look at them next week, this friday options expire and see where I stand.
one good item about Dawgball put is if the stock got put to him then he could sell covered calls two three months out, the premiums on most US financials are good.
would never have the courage to buy AIG this morning but that was a great trade DTB. and probably now worth seeing if they can pull it out, still believe they are in a great deal of trouble however if the government steps in to some degree.....
two very good trades, mentioned in this thread,...I am just waiting, look at them next week.
note: MS came out with good numbers, so this short term rally should have some legs for the week.
amazing how quickly this market can change, just wait a few days.
thanks
selkirk
both trades would have had a good start today... will look at them next week, this friday options expire and see where I stand.
one good item about Dawgball put is if the stock got put to him then he could sell covered calls two three months out, the premiums on most US financials are good.
would never have the courage to buy AIG this morning but that was a great trade DTB. and probably now worth seeing if they can pull it out, still believe they are in a great deal of trouble however if the government steps in to some degree.....
two very good trades, mentioned in this thread,...I am just waiting, look at them next week.
note: MS came out with good numbers, so this short term rally should have some legs for the week.
amazing how quickly this market can change, just wait a few days.
thanks
selkirk
Took a hit on BAC trying to time it also-- so only batting 50%. 
Have dealt with AIG many years and pretty familiar with them--insurance laws very strict on assets on ins portfolio side--just didn't know how bad loans side was. Was thinking moreso of buyout from elsewhere rather than gov. As much as Buffet likes ins stocks won't surprise me to see him try and buy piece of insuracne side if worse comes to worse.
Have dealt with AIG many years and pretty familiar with them--insurance laws very strict on assets on ins portfolio side--just didn't know how bad loans side was. Was thinking moreso of buyout from elsewhere rather than gov. As much as Buffet likes ins stocks won't surprise me to see him try and buy piece of insuracne side if worse comes to worse.
- Feb 12, 2000
- 10,652
- 39
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My business partner was watching CNBC during lunch on Thursday when they broke the news of the short freeze. He went in and bought a nice chunk of MS @ $14.
Immediately put half of it on limit sell order of $21 thinking it would take some time... two hours later, clipped 50% profit on half the trade...
Then put limit sell order on the rest of it @ $27.50 on Thursday.
Gap open, the rest of the shares sell at $30.08...
Time: about 19 hours
Overall profit: 82% :scared
It pays to be really lucky sometimes...
Immediately put half of it on limit sell order of $21 thinking it would take some time... two hours later, clipped 50% profit on half the trade...
Then put limit sell order on the rest of it @ $27.50 on Thursday.
Gap open, the rest of the shares sell at $30.08...
Time: about 19 hours
Overall profit: 82% :scared
It pays to be really lucky sometimes...
I bought some NCC yesterday in the mid $2's. I have heard grumblings that they could be acquired, but who knows if they get bought at $1.50 nowadays, but gonna take a chance for $2 in profit if bailout gets through.
