I thought this was good reading.......
Wait a second ... it's already Week Ten? How did that happen? Suddenly we're just weeks away from Miami's annual holiday swoon! Actually, you know what? Starting this week, I'm guaranteeing eleven straight Fridays of football columns, or your money back. Even if you aren't paying anything.
Before we get to this week's effort, we need to take care of a few things:
District Attorney? Well, according to FOX you're all unemployed now.
As you probably heard, Fox cancelled "Skin" after just three episodes, breaking "Falcone's" record for "Most promos shown during a prolonged sporting event versus number of actual episodes that made the air." Just a jaw-dropping turn of events. I actually didn't mind the show -- if anything, Ron Silver's over-the-top performance killed it more than the absurdly enjoyable premise. They should have hired a campier actor for the porn czar -- someone likable and devious, yet someone who rated high on the Unintentional Comedy Scale.
Who would have been better? Well, Jack Wagner would have been ideal, but it's tough to drag him off the golf course. Burt Reynolds could have been fun. Same with Jason Alexander. Ian Ziering was probably too old. You could have talked me into the Put The Lotion In The Basket Guy. But at gunpoint, I'd probably choose Dr. Michael Mancini from Melrose Place -- he would have been perfect for that role. And you know why? BECAUSE HIS FATHER IS THE DISTRICT ATTORNEY!!!!!!!!!)
If you wondered why I picked every favorite last week, here's what happened: After going through my weekly "Who am I picking?" process (which includes Starbucks, Wednesday's USA Today, a pen and paper, and one of those 17-dollar frappucino thingies), I only had three underdogs -- Indy, New Orleans and Houston. That's never a good sign. So I made the picks again, and I came up with the same three underdogs again. Whenever that happens, I err on the side of caution and take every favorite, since it's obvious that I have no feel for the week.
Of course, my three underdogs ended up covering, and I would have gone 9-5 instead of 6-8. The lesson, as always: I'm an idiot.
I'm afraid to mention anything about the Pats. Terrified, even. But a few things surprised me about Belichick's safety call in Denver. For one thing, with three minutes to play, it was the only move -- you give up the deuce, gain 30 yards of kicking position, and you still need your field goal. So why did I realize this immediately, and yet Madden never mentioned it once, and Michaels brought up the possibility just as they were about to snap the ball? Really? They're paid to do this, and I'm sitting on my sofa next to the Dooze -- who was chewing her paw at the time -- and the word "safety" entered my mind 30 seconds before them? How does this make sense?
(Wait... don't answer that.)
Second, why is everyone treating this "safety" decision like Belichick unveiled a new formula for nuclear fusion? It was his only move! You had to do it! Have we really reached the point where any intelligent, thoughful coaching decision has to be celebrated? Are things THAT bad?
(Wait... don't answer that.)
And third, in that same spot, given the same options, Grady Little would have punted out of his own end zone. Let there be no doubt. No, I'm not still bitter or anything.
Onto this week's picks (home team in caps):
LINK OF THE WEEK
Thanks to the Oregonian, here's a transcript of Bonzi Wells's impromptu press conference with local reporters this week, one day after he flipped off a fan at a home game.
I won't ruin it for you ... but just so you know, my next fantasy team is going to be called "The Black Flashes." Enjoy.
NY GIANTS (-10.5) over Atlanta
Here's where the "Smoking Hot Second-Half Teams" emerge -- the teams that start slow, turn things around, then roar to the finish like Peter North. It always happens around Week 9 or 10, there's always one team in each conference, and I can almost always identify them without fail. Well, the Giants are one of them. Talent? (Check.) Early-season stumble? (Check.) Easy schedule (Not exactly.) Showing signs of coming on? (Check). Coach with a midseason history of pushing his chips into the middle of the table, then getting everyone to ante up? (Check.) And now they get to fatten up against the hideous Falcons.
(That reminds me, does anyone else think that Atlanta's players are dying to win a game, just so they can pour Gatorade on an unsuspecting Dan Reeves? No, no, I told you, I have a bad heart... ahhhhhhhhhhh! They've probably been planning this for weeks. "Whoops, sorry, Coach, we totally forgot." Yeah, right. Keep an eye on this one. This has all the makings of a "CSI" episode.)
WASHINGTON (+3.5) over Seattle
Speaking of terrible coaches, it's Steve Spurrier! So lemme get this straight ... NFL coaches who only work seven-hour days won't be as successful as coaches who work 15 and 16-hour days? That's insane! I never would have imagined that! And it's a bad idea to leave your QB completely unprotected, so he takes 20 to 25 vicious shots per game? Get out of here! That's crazy talk!
So why am I picking them this week? Because I don't trust the Seahawks. Because I hate giving away that half-point. Because the Skins can't possible be worse than they were last week -- when Dallas gave them four turnovers and they still weren't in the game. And because the Skins players will be working overtime to save Spurrier's job.
(Hey, wait a second... what the hell am I thinking?)
Seattle (-3.5) over WASHINGTON
There. That's better.
(And just for the record, either this will be Koren Robinson's breakout weekend, or the weekend I break out of jail -- because I killed someone after seeing Koren Robinson catch 2 passes or less for the 10th straight week. There's no in-between.)
Arizona (+7.5) over PITTSBURGH
Here's what happened with the Cards over the past two weeks, and it's very simple: When you expect to win, you earn the right to be there to win. More importantly, you've earned the right to EXPECT to win. And you've earned much more than that.
Smith could use his extra free time to consult "Playmakers" on the Leon Taylor character.
One more thing: Will anything be worse than that moment 2 weeks from now, after Marcel Shipp's 4th-straight 100-yard game, when Emmitt Smith and Coach Mac have the following exchange:
--Emmitt: "Coach, the trainer says I'm good to go."
--Coach: "Uh, jeez, Emmitt, um, maybe you better take another week, you don't want to rush these things..."
--Emmitt: "No, no, I got a clean bill of health. I can start on Sunday."
--Coach (walking away): "Wow, that's great. Really, that's good news. Keep me posted."
--Emmitt: "Wait, where are you going?"
--Coach (running): "I think I left my lights on... I'll be right back!"
CINCINNATI (-5.5) over Houston
How 'bout this for a stayaway: "David Carr with a sprained ankle" takes on "Jon Kitna as a 5.5-point favorite." That's like choosing between Brooke Burns and Brooke Burke, only the complete opposite. Whatever. I feel bad for jinxing the Bengals last week. My apologies.
(By the way, is it wrong that I was in the shower last week thinking about how Corey Dillon ruined not one but TWO of my roto seasons, and I was trying to think of ways to get him back, so I decided I would find out his home address, then sign him up for something like 100 different magazine subscriptions with the "Bill Me Later" option? And I spent about 10 minutes concocting this plan before I realized that he was driving me insane? And yes, I'm married and I have a job. Let's just move on.)
Tampa Bay (-3) over CAROLINA
Tampa won the Super Bowl last season. Now they play hard every other week. Hey, it happens. It just turns out that this is the Other Week. And it's Payback Time for that absymal loss to the Panthers in Week 2, the one where Kris Jenkins blocked the game-winning extra-point and I lost my two-team tease (unforgivable). So here's what I'm doing: I'm taking the money I would have won on that tease, plus the money I lost, and I'm betting it on the Bucs. The Karma Gods will pay me back. In fact, I feel so strongly about this, I just capitalized at least six words that didn't need caps.
One more thing on Carolina: it's highly, highly, HIGHLY possible that these guys aren't very good. They were beyond lucky in Week 2. They were just as lucky in Week Nine against the Saints. And they beat the Jags in Week One on a Delhomme fourth down heave (in traffic, no less). This team was three plays away -- repeat: three -- from being 3-5 right now.
And yeah, there's always some luck that goes into football from year to year, as the 2001 Bears proved to a tee. But this feels different to me. Couldn't you see them finishing the season 8-8? Let's just go ahead and anoint them the "Team That Collapses Down the Stretch" team and get it over with.
Chicago (+2) over DETROIT
Let's just say that Fox isn't spending the extra money for a sideline reporter on this one.
no titans fan, but they are good. no running game ? they haven't had one for two years.
