Just to play devils advocate.....not saying your pick is wrong, but you could also look at it like:
Toledo knew they were going somewhere as they knew they were going NITing. They realistically found out about 7pm and their bags were packed. They knew they weren't going to the NCAAS. Marquette is pissed about being dumped by the NCAA selection committee. And Marquette knows the same nothing about Toledo. Plane ride is no more than an hour.
good luck with your play