:mj07: Hilarious. Look fellas, we have ourselves a self-appointed AUTHORITY on baseball! Swell! What on earth did this forum ever do without your superior knowledge of the game?!
Congrats, man. You're a stat geek who can crunch a few numbers. And yes, it's so obvious that the only reason Pineiro started having success is due to a new pitch. Or maybe he started getting laid on a more frequent basis and that helped? Or maybe he started eating healthier in '09 or started a new workout regime and that helped his performance? You call my opinion subjective, but yours is as subjective as anyone's.
And where are your stats for Franklin? You don't have any, so you have to minimize his year. Face it, he was one of the better closers in the NL, but let's not facts get away if it doesn't help your argument, right?
And since you like crunching numbers so much, how about you make a detailed list of all the average/marginally talented NL pitchers who go to the AL and have great years. Then compare that to the number of average/marginally talented pitchers who go from the AL to the NL and have great years. I'm sure all those former AL guys just developed new pitches, right?
Come on hero, we're all waiting.
Ryan Franklin ranked 37th among qualified relievers in FIP this season.
That sandwiched him between illustrious relievers Darren Oliver and D.J. Carrasco.
He walked more batters per 9 (3.54) than he has in any season since his rookie year.
Last season, in the NL, he walked 3.4 batters per 9.
In his AL since his rookie year, he walked 2.76, 1.67, 2.59, 2.74, 2.93 batters respectively.
Did he lose the ability to control his pitches? Who knows? Maybe NL hitters are more patient on the whole.
Franklin's year revolved completely around two things:
His HR/9 rate was 0.30. That's by far the lowest of his career and comes as a result of an home run per fly ball rate that he has no hope of sustaining.
3.2% of his fly balls left the yard. His career average is 10.2%. His previous low was 9.3% with his previous high being 14.6%. Both of those happened in the NL.
This is a rate that he cannot and will not sustain. It's been proven that pitchers have little control over their home run/fly ball rate from season to season, and luck plays a huge role in this.
Given that Franklin's 20% line drive rate was higher than any of his previous 3 seasons, it looks like hitters were still tagging him just as hard (or slightly harder), so there's nothing to suggest that his fly ball luck was anything he caused or could control.
He also had a .269 batting average on balls in play, which is well below the average and is another thing that he has little control over.
Given that he gave up MORE line drives this year and had a substantially lower BABIP than last year (.300+), it's pretty easy to conclude that Ryan Franklin's numbers were...let's call them fortunate.
Of course his FIP explains this. Which is why he was 37th among relievers. But because you probably don't understand why a pitcher can get fortunate, I felt the need to explain it to you.
You want to talk Brad Penny?
He struck out almost 2 AL hitters more per 9 innings than he did in San Fran (6.08 to 4.32).
The difference in his numbers comes as a result of two things:
Batting average on balls in play.
In Boston, his BABIP was a well above league average .336. In San Francisco, it was a ridiculously lucky .209. Once again, pitchers have little control over these things.
Likewise, he stranded 64.4% of batters in the AL. Luckily stranded 81.4% in the NL. This is despite striking out more hitters in the AL. Once again, a factor other than ability causing a fluctuation in the numbers.
John Smoltz?
15% of the flyballs he gave up in Boston went for home runs.
6% of the flyballs he gave up in St. Louis went for home runs.
That is despite hitters making better contact against him in St. Louis (18.7% line drive rate vs 18.1% LD rate in Boston).
He also got 43% groundballs in Boston, as opposed to the pedestrian 36% groundballs he got in St. Louis.
So he was getting more ground balls, walking less people, and giving up fewer fly balls and line drives in Boston, yet his numbers were higher.
That home run to fly ball rate wouldn't have anything to do with that, would it?
I fully expect that these things went WAY over your head.
And as for Vicente Padilla. I'd suspect that if you took any pitcher (Bob Gibson to Yusmiero Petit) and moved him from summertime at the Ballpark in Arlington to the pitcher's haven in Los Angeles, you'd see his numbers improve.
Kind of like the difference in pitching in Citi Field against pitching in Yankee Stadium.
I'd love to see how you explain Jake Peavy moving from a pitcher's heaven in San Diego to a hitter's park in Chicago and posting this difference in numbers:
SD - 3.97 ERA, 19% line drive rate, 41% ground ball rate.
Chicago WS - 1.35 ERA, 14.6% line drive rate, 47.9% ground ball rate.
Wouldn't it be silly if I tried to claim that the National League was better than the American League using Jake Peavy's numbers?
It's about as stupid as what you've attempted to do here.