Let's get ready for MLB:

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

in this thread i plan to post some stuff i find from websites to get a feel for the MLB teams, who's gonna be good, who won't be...

if anyone wants to add stuff, please feel free to.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

important info here for those that might have missed:

PEORIA, Ariz. -- San Diego Padres closer Trevor Hoffman had shoulder surgery Friday that likely will cause him to miss at least half the season.

this may cause a significant change to PADRES win total if they can't find an adequate replacement.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

some humour from ESPN:

Highway man of the spring:

Usually in spring training, when they tell a guy to "hit the road," that's not good. But Jim Thome gave that term a whole new meaning when he became the first Phillie ever to hit a batting-practice home run that landed on US 19, the highway running behind the right-field fence at Steve Carlton Field, in the Carpenter Complex.

The Philadelphia Inquirer's Bob Brookover was so determined to figure out how far away that was, he borrowed a tape measure, started from the guard rail on the highway and started measuring.

It was 82 feet to a stream behind the fence, 35 feet to cross the stream, 33 feet from the stream to the fence that outlines the complex, another 33? feet to the outfield fence and then 355 feet from that fence to home plate. Which comes to 538? feet.

"I told Jim, 'We just got a request from the department of transportation,' " Phillies GM Ed Wade told Spring Fever. "'They don't want you to hit during rush hour.' "

"We're thinking of stationing a cop up there," said special advisor Dallas Green. "He's going to hold up a sign: 'Hold on. Thome's hitting.' "

Finally, when asked by Spring Fever if he'd ever given up a home run that landed on a highway, Phillies broadcast-comedian Larry Andersen replied: "No. The home runs I gave up usually hit a plane before they could hit a highway."

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

this is some FUNNY CHIT:

Rain game of the spring:

Out in weather-challenged Arizona, the A's and Brewers got rained out Friday -- but played anyway.

For reasons only their grounds crew knows for sure, Oakland's field in Phoenix was unplayable. But 15 miles away at the Brewers' ballpark in Maryvale, there wasn't a drop of water for, well, miles.

So they simply moved the game to Maryvale and let a couple of thousand surprised fans in for free.

"Then they made an announcement," Brewers coach-witticist Rich Donnelly told Spring Fever. "They said, 'If it rains here, use your rainchecks.' So 2,000 people started looking in their pockets. But they didn't have any tickets -- because they didn't sell any.

"Later, they started calling out lucky numbers on the tickets -- and 2,000 people were all looking for their tickets.

"At one point, I went over to the stands and asked a guy, 'Hey, do you have a ticket for that seat, sir?' He said, 'No.' And he moved."

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

ok, last funny one:

Rerun of the spring"

This dialogue was overheard this spring on an A&E rerun of the NBC TV show, "Third Watch:"

Officer John Sullivan arrives at the scene of a purse snatching in New York City.

Sullivan: "What was in the purse?"

Victim: "Pictures, credit cards, two Mets tickets for tonight."

Sullivan (sounding annoyed): "Was there anything of value lost?"

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

BETTING THE RUN LINE

BETTING THE RUN LINE

copy and pasted:

This article is designed to present information regarding wagering on the Run Line in Major League Baseball. Over 20,000 Major League baseball games played since 1989 have formed the data base used for this study. It takes a great deal of time to go through all of the data and analyze what has happened and we shall be presenting the data to you in segments over the next few weeks, including results broken down by price range.

We begin with an Overview of Run Line betting.

Unlike football and basketball in which pointspreads are used to determine the winners and losers of wagers, baseball has historically been a sport in which bettors merely wager on which team will win the game. As the perceived difference between two competing teams grows, money line odds are used to 'equalize' the chances of a bettor showing a profit over the long run. Two evenly matched teams will be involved in a 'pick em' game. In Sports Books that feature a "ten cents line" you would lay $105 to win $100 on the team you think will win the game. A team that is more moderately favored might be priced as a -140 favorite in which case you would wager $140 to win $100. If you bet on the opponent, the Underdog, you would wager $100 to win $130. As the price of the favorite rises, the 'spread' between the favorite and underdog prices also increases. For example, a -200 Favorite often returns +180 on the Underdog.

Run Line wagering attempts to introduce the pointspread element found in basketball and football wagering to a very limited degree. The Run Line wager involves the laying or taking of one and a half runs with a corresponding adjustment in the price. When you wager on a Favorite and lay the run and half you are wagering that the Favorite will win by two runs or more. A wager on the Underdog at plus a run and a half means that you are wagering on the Underdog to either win the game straight up or lose the game by exactly one run. Obviously you do not have tie games in baseball.

The price adjustments in run line wagering depend upon whether the favored team is at home or on the road. A larger adjustment occurs for Home Favorites since they will often only get at bats in 8 innings if they have the lead after the visiting team hits in the ninth. If the home team trails or is tied in the middle of the ninth inning the odds that they will win the game by more than one run are greatly reduced since it would take a multiple run home run to win by at least two runs since the game would normally end after the go ahead run crosses home plate in the event of any run producing event other than a home run. The road team will ALWAYS bat in the top of the ninth inning regardless of the score so it is easier for the road team to win by more than a run in tight ballgames. In the ninth inning and in extra innings there is no limit on the number of runs the road team can score -- they continue to bat until there are three outs.

A typical example of how the price adjustment works is as follows. A Home Favorite of - 125 often is transformed into an Underdog of roughly + 145 when laying the run and a half, a spread of 70 cents. The corresponding Road Underdog, priced at + 115 straight, is often a Favorite of - 165 when getting the plus run and a half, a spread of 80 cents. If the roles were reversed, a Road Favorite of - 125 would be priced at + 120 when laying the run and a half, a spread of just 45 cents. The corresponding Home Underdog, priced straight at + 115, would be a Favorite of about - 140 when taking the run and a half, a spread of 55 cents.

It is our contention that playing the Run Line and converting a Favorite into an Underdog makes great sense but doing the reverse, taking the run and half with the underdog, is not efficient. Consider the following --

The ONLY way you are hurt when you lay the run and a half and convert a Favorite into an Underdog is when that Favorite WINS BY EXACTLY ONE RUN! In all other situations you are benefitted. When the Favorite wins by 2 runs or more, thereby covering the Run Line, you WIN MORE than if you just played the game straight. You win as if you had played on an Underdog (+ 145 vs. + 100 in the Home Favorite example above or + 120 vs. + 100 in the Road Favorite example). If that Favorite should lose the game you would LOSE LESS than by playing straight (- 100 vs. - 125 in the case of our Home and Road Favorites in our above example). Only when the Favorite wins by exactly one run are you hurt by playing the run line. In such an instance the straight bettor wins while the bettor who laid the run and a half loses.

Conversely, the ONLY way you are helped by taking the runs and a half is when your team LOSES BY EXACTLY ONE RUN. In all other situations straight plays on Underdogs are more beneficial. When your Underdog loses, as they are expected to do, you LOSE MORE by taking the run and a half (-$165 in the case of our Road Underdog above or - $120 in the case of our Home Underdog) than by playing the team straight (lose just $100). When that team pulls the upset and wins you WIN LESS by taking the run and a half since you would normally be getting, for example, + $115 on a straight wager but are getting just + $100 when taking the run and a half. When the team loses by exactly 1 run the straight bettor loses while the bettor who played the plus a run and a half wins.

The central questions to be asked and answered are "How often do Favorites win by exactly 1 Run?" and "How often do Favorites win by 2 Runs or more"?

We have studied the results of over 20,000 Major League Baseball games and in the next few weeks we shall be presenting data that looks into these questions and the many sub-questions. But for starters let's share with you the following data that shows, by percentage, just how often the four possible scenarios have historically broken out for both Home Favorites and Road Favorites --



Percentage of games which produce
the following Result . . . . . HOME FAVORITES ROAD FAVORITES
----------------------------------- -------------- --------------
Win by 2 Runs or More 39.1 % 43.6 %

Win by Exactly 1 Run 18.4 % 11.6 %

Lose by Exactly 1 Run 11.0 % 16.4 %

Lose by 2 Runs or More 31.5 % 28.5 %


Note that we have split the losses into groups of exactly 1 run and more than 1 run. There really is no need for this distinction since a loss is a loss is a loss when it comes to playing the Favorite. Only the 1 Run win has significance. What we want to show is that although between 28% and 30% of all games are decided by 1 run, ONLY those in which the FAVORITE WINS BY 1 RUN have an impact of the result of betting the Run Line!

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS Return to Top


Signed 2B-R Junior Spivey to a two-year contract. [2/23]

This is a nice gesture by the Diamondbacks, because it doesn't really eliminate arbitration headaches as much as it gives a player without leverage a little bit of security. As our forthcoming PECOTA cards, featuring Nate Silver's really interesting Similarity Index and Similarity Scores (very different and significantly more valuable than the old Similarity Scores that generated trivia but no concrete information) tell us, Spivey might be coming off a great season in his age-27 year, but he also ends up being somebody whose season is most comparable to Damion Easley's 1998 or Charlie Neal's 1959. After those uninspiring examples, you can work your way down a bit to get to Phil Garner or Robbie Thompson or Vance Law. Now, I don't know about you, but to me that seems like a very strong hint that overall, you have a picture of a guy who is coming off a great season at the age you should expect great seasons, and then...you have to wonder. Everything should favor Spivey having a useful career; I particularly like the Garner or Law comps for that much less sophisticated wishcasting.

BOSTON RED SOX Return to Top


Agreed to terms on a two-year contract with 1B/OF-R Kevin Millar. [2/20]

Signed RHP Robert Person to a minor league contract with a spring training NRI. [2/22]

The Red Sox still have questions about who will be in the last two slots at the bottom of the rotation. John Burkett wasn't a major asset last year, Casey Fossum may or may not be an answer, and then you get to the perpetually hanging-on Frank Castillo. So it makes sense to haul in Robert Person, on the off chance that his elbow will be fine all season. As Will Carroll explains it, last year's shoulder problem was a classic compensation injury, where he incurred a relatively minor shoulder injury compensating for an elbow that has been a far more persistent problem. Flash Gordon and Jason Isringhausen have both come back from similar injuries pretty quickly, so there's a chance that Person could be healthy enough to contribute. Whether we can feel safe about using one-inning closers as comps is another story. Still, since he was a quality starter in the not-too-distant past, it sort of makes sense to take a flyer. As for Person, waiting got him a better gig. He could have gone to Pittsburgh or Baltimore or something. Now, on the off chance that everything goes right, he could be the fourth starter on a playoff team.

MONTREAL EXPOS Return to Top


Signed INF-R Trace Coquillette to a minor league contract with a spring training NRI. [2/24]

Normally, in a situation like this, I'd break out a cheap crack about Rodney Scott's unavailability after his tragic gig as a Spinal Tap drummer. However, Coquillette is only going on 29, and unlike Wilton Guerrero, he might actually do things that help a ballclub in some concrete fashion. When you're at the bottom of the barrel hoping for pennies, you don't get picky if they have maple leafs or Lincolns on them.

NEW YORK METS Return to Top


Signed 1B-B Tony Clark to a minor league contract with a spring training NRI. [2/20]

Signed LHP Donovan Osborne to a minor league contract with a spring training NRI. [2/22]

If nothing else, Steve Phillips is always busy. I'm sort of surprised at myself, but of the two signings, I'm a lot more positive about Tony Clark. Is he done? Sure, he might be, but he was also useful as recently as 2001. But more importantly, if Mo Vaughn wallows around in noisy mediocrity or worse, gets hurt, the Mets don't really have another internal alternative, and this is a division where 85 wins will contend. So the Mets sign Clark, rather than get caught short-handed down the road, then either have to make a deal from a bad spot, or do something radical like move Piazza and split the catching duties between Jason Phillips and Vance Wilson. This was a nice bit of risk assessment, although if Clark has a bad camp, he may not stick. There are reasonably good odds on a lousy spring, given that he's a big, slow slugger, and perhaps representative of the type that Bill James reasonably posited flames out in his early 30s.

Meanwhile, the Mets are chasing butterflies and fancies with Donovan Osborne. I know it's fashionable to be promoting everyone as a potential Chris Hammond wannabe, but Hammond was remarkable and healthy, while Osborne is born to be broken.

OAKLAND ATHLETICS Return to Top


Signed LF-R Ron Gant to a minor league contract with a spring training NRI. [2/21]

Gant is banking on being what he's been for awhile, a nice platoon partner and part-time player, and a fine fill-in if your starting left fielder goes down or struggles. He makes an interesting contrast to Clark (see above), in that he's seven years older, but still more valuable. But that also goes back to Gant's beginnings. He might have been a bad second baseman, but he was athletic enough to play the position and steal bases and hit triples, the sort of thing Clark gets to watch other people do. In themselves, those sorts of things don't describe Gant as much as they statistically reflect the better athlete. So even though Gant still strikes out a lot, and is essentially a talented Three True Outcomes hitter, he's still here and still has obvious value, even though he's the one pushing 40, and Clark is a lot closer to his days of starring.

With the A's, Gant makes for a good insurance policy in left, as well as a platoon partner for Erubiel Durazo or Scott Hatteberg in the DH slot. He'll more likely draw platoon duties at DH and perhaps left initially, but if Terrence Long continues to do a convincing impression of Mitchell Page's career-long swooning spiral from a solid rookie season, he won't last as the everyday left fielder. The leading alternative to Long or Gant is Adam Piatt, who is interesting when healthy, and Eric Byrnes, who will have trouble pushing past such august company while also fending off a challenge from Rontrez Johnson for the fifth outfielder's job. All in all, it's another camp where Billy Beane has collected a large number of bats (I haven't even brought up professional hitters like Billy McMillon, Olmedo Saenz, Mitch Meluskey, or even Jason Grabowski, all guys who can hit in the majors), and where Ken Macha will have a lot of flexibility in picking and choosing his roster.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES Return to Top


Placed INF-R Pat Meares on the 60-day DL. [2/23]

This was a double payoff, emphasis on pay. First, the Bucs get the 40-man roster spot back, since Meares fulfilled his job of generating an insurance payment, and can now ride off to whatever land beyond where the sunset is, where people can find Operation Shutdown in happy action. Like...Tampa Bay, perhaps. Anyway, more basically, the Pirates needed the spot back to add a player whose value wasn't summed up on the bottom line, as they were planning to sign Reggie Sanders as this article was being clacked upon my keyboard. The notable thing that the Sanders signing will achieve is screwing the Yankees, who will almost certainly have to play and/or eat Rondell and Buffalo for weeks and months to come, as one more window for potential dumpery slams shut.

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS Return to Top


Confessed that OF-R Alex Ochoa has elected to depart for greener pastures in the land of Godzilla, signing a contract with the Chunichi Dragons. [2/19]

The Cardinals are in a situation screaming out for a trade, because otherwise this is just another one of those self-hobbling little roster accidents that seem to pile up on the LaRussians because they feel the need to carry two catchers who can't hit and seven relievers. So now that Ochoa is gone and J.D. Drew is still hurt, the Cardinals are left with options like Orlando Palmeiro, So Taguchi or Kerry Robinson for a spare outfield slot or two. And those are all the bodies on the 40-man roster, no less; the NRIs include Todd Dunwoody and Jon Nunnally. Kurt Abbott has stumbled around in the outfield now and again, so now that he's a NRI, he might even get taken seriously as a multi-position scrubeenie.

You can elect to be optimistic, because funky things happen in the game as a matter of course. You can't rule out Nunnally finally resurrecting his career, or Palmeiro continuing to do what he does best and being a nice OBP source. Maybe Kerry Robinson will be useful instead of Alex Sanchez Lite. Maybe So Taguchi has a talented friend at loose ends on the other side of the Pacific who will come and take his place. But more basically, the Cardinals have offensive issues if Drew misses a significant portion of the regular season, because Tino Martinez and Fernando Vina aren't threats, and the non-Marrero catchers even less so. Losing Ochoa right now hurts, pure and simple.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS Return to Top


Signed LHP Kirk Rueter to a two-year contract extension through the 2005 season. [2/19]

It's a $12 million deal, with $3 million in bonuses, $4 million due in 2004, and $5 million due in 2005. So basically, it's a nice reward for a solid citizen who's been sort of the Giants' modern little knockoff of Herb Pennock, a good starter on a team armed with the offensive demigod of his day. That's not a knock on Rueter, but life is a lot easier when runs are a little more available for you than they are for the other guy. Rueter's skills have been valuable: he's basically taken his turn every fifth day for six years, and while he's not as extreme as somebody like Bob Tewksbury was, he's basically a control pitcher. He's a little more deliberately wild, because he's always going to have to be careful.

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

Last Updated Sat Mar 01 05:46:37 EST 2003

Home Advantage = 0.2242



Team
Rating
v. Top 5
v. 6-10
v. 11-16
1. Oakland (102-61) 5.7968 19-16 11-17 14-12
2. Anaheim (107-68) 5.7830 19-19 16-19 14-8
3. NY Yankees (101-60) 5.6981 12-10 16-15 15-9
4. Atlanta (101-61) 5.6554 5-6 15-9 39-25
5. San Francisco (102-71) 5.6457 11-15 28-20 15-13
6. Arizona (94-66) 5.5120 11-16 13-17 17-10
7. St. Louis (100-68) 5.4951 8-12 11-6 20-17
8. Seattle (91-68) 5.4732 26-21 7-5 12-9
9. Los Angeles (92-68) 5.4259 15-16 15-11 17-12
10. Boston (91-69) 5.4114 20-21 4-11 15-9

Team
Rating
v. Top 5
v. 6-10
v. 11-16
11. Minnesota (97-72) 5.2894 13-23 8-7 10-3
12. Montreal (83-75) 5.1569 10-14 7-12 27-21
13. Houston (82-77) 5.0726 4-11 13-21 9-9
14. Toronto (78-82) 5.0321 18-21 12-21 3-10
15. Florida (79-81) 4.9532 12-14 8-10 24-23
16. Philadelphia (74-80) 4.9508 10-14 9-10 19-26
17. Chicago WS (79-82) 4.9129 7-20 9-6 15-16
18. Texas (72-88) 4.8996 16-32 10-17 13-10
19. NY Mets (73-84) 4.8918 10-20 7-12 30-33
20. Colorado (72-85) 4.8618 11-15 16-34 15-12

Team
Rating
v. Top 5
v. 6-10
v. 11-16
21. Cincinnati (77-81) 4.8265 5-13 12-22 14-19
22. Cleveland (74-85) 4.7459 8-15 8-11 13-21
23. San Diego (64-95) 4.6069 9-19 20-30 10-14
24. Chicago Cubs (66-92) 4.5774 4-6 12-20 17-19
25. Pittsburgh (68-89) 4.5710 6-12 9-19 14-20
26. Baltimore (65-93) 4.5275 13-25 12-20 12-19
27. Kansas City (60-99) 4.3035 5-18 6-15 9-23
28. Tampa Bay (54-103) 4.2160 8-29 8-22 13-18
29. Milwaukee (55-103) 4.2003 2-16 10-19 15-27
30. Detroit (55-102) 4.0918 4-24 7-10 7-26

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

When teams win, they also cover the run line (win by more than 1) 72.0% of the time. The percentage is much higher for road teams, who cover the Run Line 76.5% of the time (when they win). Home teams cover only 68.1% of the time. Those percentages go up when the team is a big favorite. Big favorites of more than -2.00 cover the run line 74.4% of the time (78.6% on the road). Small favorites between -120 and -105 cover the run line 70.5% of the time. So being a big favorite increases your chances by about 2% and being on the road increase it by 4%.

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

Run Line Winners
No. TEAM WINS RLWINS PER
1 BOS 93 80 86.0
2 CHA 81 66 81.5
3 NYY 104 83 79.8
4 HOU 84 66 78.6
5 CLE 74 58 78.4
6 KAN 62 48 77.4
7 ARI 98 75 76.5
8 STL 101 77 76.2
9 COL 73 55 75.3
10 TEX 72 54 75.0
11 MIL 56 42 75.0
12 SEA 93 69 74.2
13 CHN 67 49 73.1
14 ATL 103 75 72.8
15 SDG 66 48 72.7
16 PHI 80 58 72.5
17 TOR 78 55 70.5
18 FLA 79 55 69.6
19 SFO 105 73 69.5
20 OAK 105 73 69.5
21 ANA 110 76 69.1
22 MIN 98 67 68.4
23 TAM 55 37 67.3
24 BAL 67 45 67.2
25 CIN 78 51 65.4
26 NYM 75 48 64.0
27 MON 83 53 63.9
28 LOS 92 58 63.0
29 PIT 72 45 62.5
30 DET 55 32 58.2

 

[ndnfan]

BASEBALL NOTE

2002-03 Major League Baseball free agent signings
---------------------------------------------------

Free agents signing with a new team
-----------------------------------

PLAYER/POS NEW TEAM PREV TEAM TERMS
---------- -------- --------- -----
Juan Acevedo, rhp NY Yankees Detroit 1 year, undisclosed
Edgardo Alfonzo, if San Francisco NY Mets 4 years, $26 million
Sandy Alomar Jr., c Chicago (AL) Colorado 1 year, $700,000
Brian Anderson, lhp Cleveland Arizona 1 year, $1.5 million
Shane Andrews, 3b Minnesota Boston 1 year, undisclosed
Carlos Baerga, if Arizona Boston 1 year, undisclosed
James Baldwin, rhp Kansas City Seattle 1 year, undisclosed
David Bell, if Philadelphia San Francisco 4 years, $17 million
Jay Bell, if NY Mets Arizona 1 year, undisclosed
Jason Bere, rhp Cleveland Chicago (NL) 1 year, $1 million
Pedro Borbon, lhp Los Angeles Houston 1 year, undisclosed
Mike Bordick, ss Toronto Baltimore 1 year, $1 million
Ricky Bottalico, rhp Arizona Philadelphia 1 year, undisclosed
Paul Byrd, rhp Atlanta Kansas City 2 years, $10 million
Tony Clark, 1b NY Mets Boston 1 year, undisclosed
Royce Clayton, ss Milwaukee Chicago (AL) 1 year, undisclosed
Greg Colbrunn, if Seattle Arizona 2 years, undisclosed
Ron Coomer, if Los Angeles NY Yankees 1 year, undisclosed
Deivi Cruz, ss Baltimore San Diego 1 year, $1.2 million
Omar Daal, lhp Baltimore Los Angeles 2 years, undisclosed
Jeff D'Amico, rhp Pittsburgh NY Mets 1 year, undisclosed
Mike DiFelice, c Kansas City St. Louis 1 year, undisclosed
Ray Durham, 2b San Francisco Oakland 3 years, $20.1 million
Shawn Estes, lhp Chicago (NL) Cincinnati 1 year, $3 million
Jorge Fabregas, c Tampa Bay Milwaukee 1 year, undisclosed
Mike Fetters, rhp Minnesota Arizona 1 year, undisclosed
John Flaherty, c NY Yankees Tampa Bay 1 year, undisclosed
Cliff Floyd, of NY Mets Boston 4 years, $26 million
Andres Galarraga, 1b San Francisco Montreal 1 year, undisclosed
Ron Gant, of Oakland San Diego 1 year, undisclosed
Joe Girardi, c St. Louis Chicago (NL) 1 year, $725,000
Doug Glanville, of Texas Philadelphia 1 year, $1 million
Tom Glavine, lhp NY Mets Atlanta 3 years, $35 million
Tom Goodwin, of Chicago (NL) San Francisco 1 year, undisclosed
Tom Gordon, rhp Chicago (AL) Houston 1 year, undisclosed
Marquis Grissom, of San Francisco Los Angeles 1 year, $4.25 million
Mark Guthrie, lhp Chicago (NL) NY Mets 1 year, undisclosed
Joey Hamilton, rhp St. Louis Cincinnati 1 year, undisclosed
Chris Hammond, lhp NY Yankees Atlanta 2 years, $4.8 million
Dave Hansen, if San Diego Los Angeles 2 years, $1.3 million
Pete Harnisch, rhp Cincinnati Colorado 1 year, undisclosed
Lenny Harris, if Chicago (NL) Milwaukee 1 year, undisclosed
Bill Haselman, c Detroit Texas 1 year, undisclosed
Rick Helling, rhp Baltimore Arizona 1 year, undisclosed
Felix Heredia, lhp Cincinnati Toronto 1 year, undisclosed
Dustin Hermanson, rhp St. Louis Boston 1 year, undisclosed
Jose Hernandez, if Colorado Milwaukee 1 year, undisclosed
Roberto Hernandez, rhp Atlanta Kansas City 1 year, undisclosed
Todd Hollandsworth, of Florida Texas 1 year, undisclosed
Tyler Houston, if Philadelphia Los Angeles 1 year, $1 million
Mike Jackson, rhp Arizona Minnesota 1 year, undisclosed
Jeff Kent, if Houston San Francisco 2 years, $18.2 million
Chad Kreuter, c Texas Los Angeles 1 year, undisclosed
Jon Lieber, rhp NY Yankees Chicago (NL) 2 years, $4 million
Graeme Lloyd, lhp NY Mets Florida 1 year, undisclosed
Esteban Loaiza, rhp Chicago (AL) Toronto 1 year, undisclosed
Keith Lockhart, if San Diego Atlanta 1 year, undisclosed
Albie Lopez, rhp Kansas City Atlanta 1 year, undisclosed
Mark Loretta, if San Diego Houston 1 year, undisclosed
John Mabry, of Seattle Oakland 1 year, undisclosed
Pat Mahomes, rhp Pittsburgh Chicago (NL) 1 year, undisclosed
Fred McGriff, 1b Los Angeles Chicago (NL) 1 year, $3.75 million
Ramiro Mendoza, rhp Boston NY Yankees 2 years, $6.5 million
Kent Mercker, lhp Cincinnati Colorado 1 year, undisclosed
Dave Mlicki, rhp Milwaukee Houston 1 year, undisclosed
Brian Moehler, rhp Houston Cincinnati 1 year, undisclosed
Bill Mueller, 3b Boston San Francisco 2 years, undisclosed
Greg Myers, c Toronto Oakland 1 year, $800,000
Charles Nagy, rhp San Diego Cleveland 1 year, undisclosed
Alex Ochoa, of St. Louis Anaheim 1 year, undisclosed
Jose Offerman, if-of Montreal Seattle 1 year, undisclosed
Troy O'Leary, of Chicago (NL) Montreal 1 year, $750,000
Jesse Orosco, lhp San Diego Los Angeles 1 year, $800,000
Keith Osik, c Milwaukee Pittsburgh 1 year, undisclosed
Orlando Palmeiro, of St. Louis Anaheim 1 year, undisclosed
Steve Parris, rhp Tampa Bay Toronto 1 year, undisclosed
Eduardo Perez, c Milwaukee Cleveland 1 year, undisclosed
Robert Person, rhp Boston Philadelphia 1 year, undisclosed
Jeff Reboulet, if Baltimore Los Angeles 1 year, undisclosed
Steve Reed, rhp Colorado NY Mets 1 year, undisclosed
Mike Remlinger, lhp Chicago (NL) Atlanta 3 years, $10.65 million
Ivan Rodriguez, c Florida Texas 1 year, $10 million
Rich Rodriguez, lhp Anaheim Texas 1 year, undisclosed
Rey Sanchez, if NY Mets Boston 1 year, $1.3 million
Reggie Sanders, of Pittsburgh San Francisco 1 year, $1 million
Terry Shumpert, if Los Angeles Colorado 1 year, undisclosed
Ruben Sierra, of Texas Seattle 1 year, undisclosed
Matt Stairs, of Pittsburgh Milwaukee 1 year, $900,000
Mike Stanton, lhp NY Mets NY Yankees 3 years, $9 million
Lee Stevens, 1b Tampa Bay Cleveland 1 year, undisclosed
B.J. Surhoff, of Baltimore Atlanta 1 year, undisclosed
Julian Tavarez, rhp Pittsburgh Florida 1 year, undisclosed
Jim Thome, 1b Philadelphia Cleveland 6 years, $85 million
Mike Timlin, rhp Boston Philadelphia 1 year, $1.85 million
Ismael Valdes, rhp Texas Seattle 1 year, undisclosed
John Valentin, if Baltimore NY Mets 1 year, undisclosed
John Vander Wal, of Milwaukee NY Yankees 1 year, undisclosed
Dave Veres, rhp Chicago (NL) St. Louis 1 year, undisclosed
Ron Villone, lhp Arizona Pittsburgh 1 year, undisclosed
Bob Wells, rhp Tampa Bay Minnesota 1 year, undisclosed
Rick White, rhp Chicago (AL) St. Louis 1 year, undisclosed
Jamey Wright, rhp Seattle St. Louis 1 year, undisclosed
Todd Zeile, if NY Yankees Colorado 1 year, $1.5 million

 

[ndnfan]

Free agents re-signing with their previous team
-----------------------------------------------

PLAYER/POS TEAM TERMS
---------- ---- -----
Brian Boehringer, rhp Pittsburgh 2 years, $3.8 million
Pat Borders, c Seattle 1 year, $500,000
Darren Bragg, of Atlanta 1 year, $450,000
Dave Burba, rhp Cleveland 1 year, undisclosed
Frank Castillo, rhp Boston 1 year, $800,000
Norm Charlton, lhp Seattle 1 year, $500,000
Roger Clemens, rhp NY Yankees 1 year, $10.1 million
Wil Cordero, of Montreal 1 year, $600,000
Chris Donnels, if Arizona 1 year, $425,000
Jeff Fassero, lhp St. Louis 1 year, $1.5 million
Steve Finley, of Arizona 2 years, $11.25 million
Julio Franco, 1b Atlanta 1 year, $600,000
Mark Grace, 1b Arizona 1 year, $2 million
Jimmy Haynes, rhp Cincinnati 2 years, $5 million
Dave Hollins, if Philadelphia 1 year, undisclosed
Darren Holmes, rhp Atlanta 1 year, $700,000
Jamie Moyer, lhp Seattle 3 years, $15.5 million
Terry Mulholland, lhp Cleveland 1 year, undisclosed
John Olerud, 1b Seattle 2 years, $15.4 million
Dan Plesac, lhp Philadelphia 1 year, $2 million
Todd Pratt, c Philadelphia 1 year, $850,000
Shane Reynolds, rhp Houston 1 year, $1 million
Armando Reynoso, rhp Arizona 1 year, $650,000
Jose Rijo, rhp Cincinnati 1 year, $500,000
Rudy Seanez, rhp Texas 1 year, $750,000
Frank Thomas, dh Chicago (AL) 4 years, $22.5 million
Steve Trachsel, rhp NY Mets 2 years, $8 million
Robin Ventura, 3b NY Yankees 1 year, $5 million
Matt Walbeck, c Detroit 1 year, undisclosed
Chris Widger, c NY Yankees 1 year, $800,000
Woody Williams, rhp St. Louis 2 years, $14.9 million

 

[RAYMOND]

I CAN NOT WAIT FOR THIS BASEBALL SEASON, I CAN FEEL IT IT IN MY BONES THAT THIS IS GOING TO BE A GREAT YEAR! BATTER UP

 

[JT]

I really like the Padres as a sleeper team but with Hoffman missing half a year I have kinda cooled on them but still see improvement. Burroughs I think will step it up and Nevin is back. Plus a nice young pitching staff. Also think Pittsburgh will be better this year to a degree as division to tough for them to take. Benson being healthy really helps. We shall see...

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

So you have decided to bet baseball this year. Every article you read preaches about the profits you can make. Sports Handicapping Services point out and offshore sportsbooks admit that all the sharpies make the most profit during the dog days of summer. And you have come up with a battle plan that is sure to build the bankroll. It is a simple plan with little ingenuity and sure-fire way to make coin. Right? You are going to play the top pitchers and teams all season long. After all, on the money line, there no spread to beat, you just have to get the win. Top pitchers on good hitting teams are abundant and your going to follow them all season and cash in. Wrong!

The easiest way for your bankroll to get burned during the baseball season is to ride the big favourites. Consider the following. With most premiere pitchers in the majors, you are going to have to lay between $160 and $240. So, on average we can deduce that you are going to play 2 units to win 1. We have calculated that a winning percentage of over 53% will turn you a profit. However when using the numbers previously listed all of a sudden magic winning percentage number has jumped to about 66%. Is it worth it? I would argue its not.

The key to making money in baseball is to look for value. Top pitchers do lose. The world champs will go on extended losing streaks. Homerun hitters will strike out. And finally, big pitchers will lose. The value in being on these games is tremendous. We are not for a moment insinuating to blindly play on big underdogs. That would be foolish gambling, and Strictly Sports Winners tries to instil the knowledge that this game we play should be considered investing. Risking a large sum of money for a high risk return of a small amount is worthless. But, risking a small amount of money for the potential of big profits is inviting.

In baseball, more than any sport, selecting winners should be based on current form. Yes, other factors should be taken into consideration. But finding a hot hitting team playing a team with a big name pitcher that has not been up to form recently is some of the best value found throughout the year at your offshore book.

Often times it may not even be the star pitcher that lets you down. There exist so many intangibles in a ball game that can truly reduce your odds of winning and remove any value you may see in laying a big number. We can mention poor managing decisions, weak bullpens, bad defensive plays, inexcusable baserunning errors, and shoddy defence as just a few.

To play on big favourites, you would need an enormous bankroll and patience not chase big losses that dent your bankroll severely. Easier said than done. We should be looking for consistent small profits over an extended period. With baseball being such a long season, with an abundant amount of games being played it is realistic to say that there are many, many games that offer us good value without having risk big units for marginal profits. We are firm believers that it is very rarely in the sports investor's best interest to ever lay more that $150 on any baseball games. In reality a better profit can be turned over time playing small dogs that hit between 45% and 50% and your winnings would represent a bigger percentage of return on the dollars originally invested.

It sounds twisted in a sense but makes perfect sense. Baseball does offer the potential for the most profits but you have to remember that it does also bring the unrealised possibility of complete bankroll destruction. Don't run the big risks. Play with discipline and patience and reap the benefits of baseball long term. If not careful, your baseball season could become a long-winded nightmare. Wager wisely, and profit often.

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

Hee Seop Choi (1B - Chicago Cubs) - Choi should see the bulk of the playing time at first for Chicago, but manager Dusty Baker has a reputation for playing veterans over rookies, and with Eric Karros on the bench, the situation could be a little bit muddy. Still, Choi's numbers last season at AAA were a very solid .287 with 36 home runs, 97 rbi, 94 runs and a handful of steals. He is the future first baseman for the Cubs.

Jack Cust (OF - Colorado Rockies) - Cust has a huge upside as a slugger, and can crush the ball. Like most players with a home run cut, he strikes out a lot. The nice thing is that he also walks very often. At AAA last year, he managed 23 home runs, while striking out 121 times and walking 83 times in 359 at bats. He also swiped six bases. Colorado gave him a trial with the big club at the end of last season and he did not look very ready. Cust's downfall is that he is a defensive nightmare at every position he has been tried out at. If ever there was a guy meant to be a designated hitter, it's Cust. If he stays in Colorado, he'll hit a ton of home runs, but glove may severely limit his playing time.

Jose Reyes (SS - New York Mets) - Reyes will be in the majors at some point this season, and could already be there from opening day on. He'll be making a huge jump from AA to the bigs, but the Mets believe he's ready. A natural leadoff hitter, Reyes has great speed and stole 58 bases for the Mets last season (between A St. Lucie and AA Binghamton). He also has a little pop in his bat which added eight home runs to his record. He still strikes out often, but when he puts a ball into a gap, he will get at least two bases.

Aaron Heilman (SP - New York Mets) - Heilman is another Met who will make his big league debut in 2003. Right now, he looks like a good bet to lock up the fifth starter's spot, but probably would benefit from a few more months in the minors. His numbers at AAA last season were a solid 3.28 era and a better than 2:1 strikeout to walk ratio. He averaged 6.39 k's per nine innings.

Marlon Byrd (OF - Philadelphia Phillies) - Here is a guy who will compete for the Rookie of the Year award, and will quickly make Phillies fans forget Doug Glanville. Byrd is a lock to start in center field on opening day. He's got power and speed, and probably will bat sixth or seventh in the lineup. Think .280, 20/20 with 60-80 RBIs.

Zach Day (SP - Montreal Expos) - Day is not a true top-tier pitching prospect, but he's ready for the big show, and should end up on Montreal's roster. He'll probably compete for the fifth starting job with Rocky Biddle, and could put up halfway decent numbers.

Jason Lane (OF - Houston Astros) - Lane is ready to play in the majors, but the acquisition of Jeff Kent - forcing Craig Biggio to the outfield - will complicate matters greatly. He has a lot of upside, and following the trade of Daryle Ward to Los Angeles, he'll probably be the Astros' fourth outfielder. Lane has occasional power and can steal a few bases, but he is not in the class of Byrd as an outfield prospect.

Joey Thurston (2B - Los Angeles Dodgers) - Thurston has a lock on the second base job with the trade of Mark Grudzielanek to the Cubs, and will hit for average, add a handful of home runs and show very good speed. He hit .334, stole 20 bases and hit 12 home runs last year. If he can keep up the good work, a .300/15/10 season doesn't seem out of line.

Kurt Ainsworth (RHP - San Francisco Giants) - Ainsworth comes into this season ready to compete for a job in the Giants' rotation. The only problem is that San Francisco is already loaded with developing pitching talent, and has two other players - Jesse Foppert and Jerome Williams - waiting for the call-up as well. Ainsworth is the most polished of the lot. He sports five quality pitches, which he uses well. The key critical comment concerning him is that he tries to rely too much on finesse.

Lyle Overbay (1B - Arizona Diamondbacks) - The leading candidate to take over the regular first base job in Arizona, Overbay promises to hit for an incredible average (.345 last year, his lowest average in four years in the minors), and last season had his best power numbers with 19 jacks. Instructors have tried to get him to sacrifice some average for power, and it might be paying off. His defense is suspect, however, which may lead to more playing time for Mark Grace. Still, don't cross this guy off the list for Rookie of the Year honors.

Wilson Betemit (SS - Atlanta Braves) - Betemit is just waiting for the call-up and will break into the majors at some point this season, but probably not by opening day. He's a good shortstop, and scouts think he could put everything together and be a five-tool player one day. I don't think it will be this season, though.

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

Michael Cuddyer (OF - Minnesota Twins) - This future star has been chomping at the bit for a shot at the majors. He got a taste of the big leagues last season and is ready to do a lot more. Cuddyer should have a legitimate shot at stealing a job this spring. If he gets to play everyday, he could be a Rookie of The Year contender. His AAA numbers last season - .309, 20 hr, 12 sb, 53 rbi - suggest he can be a five-category contributor.

Jon Rauch (SP - Chicago White Sox) - A dominating right-hander who has potential ace material, Rauch was Baseball America's Player Of The Year in 2000, but spent 2001 on the bench following shoulder surgery. He bounced back nicely towards the end of 2002 and looks poised to break out in 2003. Rauch has four solid pitches, and at 6'11", his delivery will give batters fits.

Franklyn German (RP - Detroit Tigers) - German should be a lock to make the Tigers' 2003 opening day roster. He's the closer of the future and the future could very well be now. Don't count Matt Anderson out of the mix yet though, and since these two relievers are two of the most valuable players Detroit has at the moment, don't be shocked if one or both end up changing teams.

Travis Hafner (1B - Cleveland Indians) - Trafner is the player slated to replace Jim Thome at first base. He was a top prospect in Texas, but was not going to get a chance to play. In Cleveland, he's the man. His AAA numbers were remarkable, including a .342 average, 21 home runs, 77 rbi and 79 runs in only 401 at bats. Hafner could find himself in the middle of the Indians' order this season.

Rocco Baldelli (OF - Tampa Bay Devil Rays) - Baldelli has torn the cover off the ball in the minors and should have a lock on the starting center field job in Tampa. Baseball America's Prospect of the Year in 2002 has power, speed and is a pure athlete. He'll hit some rough spots adjusting to major league pitching, and has a reputation for being a very free swinger. However, his numbers in the Arizona Fall League have shown improvement. His biggest weakness may be a poor arm.

Rafael Soriano (SP - Seattle Mariners) - Almost a lock to have a spot in the Seattle rotation, Soriano throws a 95-97 mph fastball, a fantastic slider, and a changeup which has been described as 'dominating.' He pitched almost 50 innings in the bigs last year before straining his shoulder. Following rehab, he seemed to be back to his overpowering self. Expect to see even better things from Soriano this season.

Mark Teixeira (3B - Texas Rangers) - A true five-tool prospect, Teixeira just needs a place to play. The Rangers re-signed Herb Perry, and Hank Blalock may still have the edge as the top third base prospect. Rumor has it that one of these guys may find himself elsewhere by opening day. If so, keep an eye on Teixeira - he could hit .300 along with 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases. If he plays in Texas, add a lot of rbi's to that as well.

Omar Infante (SS - Detroit Tigers) - A spray hitter who has great speed, Infante will hit for a decent average, and should win the starting job this spring. He's a gold glove candidate with top level defensive skills.

Dewon Brazelton (SP - Tampa Bay Devil Rays) - Expect to see Brazeltonn in the Tampa Bay rotation this season. He has three solid pitches with a 95-mph fastball, a good changeup and a nasty slider. He could in fact turn out to be the surprise ace of the Tampa Bay staff. He probably won't win a lot of games, but could put up true 'Ace' numbers in the other categories.

Hank Blalock (3B - Texas Rangers) - Blalock stumbled last season in his first shot at the majors. Most of us thought that he had simply been asked to do too much, too soon. However, it was revealed soon after his early struggles that he had bone chips in his elbow. A year later, he remains a top prospect, with the chance to hit for a .300 plus average with 30 home runs. The Rangers have a logjam at third and Blalock might try another position or end up on another team. Watch him. He should get another shot at significant playing time.

Also keep an eye on: Darnell McDonald, OF (Orioles); Ryan Ludwick, OF (Rangers); Billy Traber, LHP (Indians); Brandon Phillips, 2B (Indians); Joe Borchard, OF (White Sox); Michael Restovich, OF (Twins); Lew Ford, OF (Twins).

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

World Series Winner

Dan: Oakland! All the pieces are in place, and now the A's have playoff experience, too. Their starting pitching may be the best in the majors, so mark them down as the team to beat!

cwebb: Arlo and others might see the Yankees as the early favorites, but the Diamondbacks should triumph one more time before their pitching aces retire.

Arlo: Having kept Jose Contreras out of Boston's hands, the Yankees look ready for another run at a title. Staying focused might be this team's biggest worry.


Surprise Team

Dan: The Cubbies. It may just be wishful thinking, but if they can keep their stellar rotation healthy, they have a shot at contending.

cwebb: The Cubs. Let's face it, they have a great young pitching staff that will make trips to Wrigley nightmares for opposing teams.

Arlo: With a move to parts unknown looming, Montreal will come together like last season's Twins and stay in the playoff hunt until August. For the first time in years, sell-outs will be the norm for the Expos... at least in Puerto Rico.


AL MVP

Dan: A-Rod. It's simply his turn.

cwebb: Following another outstanding campaign, Alex Rodriguez will pick up the trophy many felt should have been his last year.

Arlo: Alex Rodriguez will lose out again, as the voters realize that no player means more to his team than Pedro Martinez.


NL MVP

Dan: Vladimir Guerrero. Barry Bonds will finally show signs of aging, clearing the way for the reign of Vlad.

cwebb: Vladimir Guerrero. I knew it when I picked him for my fantasy squad three seasons ago: he's the biggest five-stat stud in the game.

Arlo: Vladimir Guerrero will finally receive the credit that fantasy owners already give him...


AL Cy Young Winner

Dan: Barry ZZZZZZito... The scary thing about Zito is that he's still getting better.

cwebb: Freddy Garcia. The Mariners need their ace to step up and lead this team, and Garcia will deliver.

Arlo: Pedro Martinez. If he can avoid injuries (and yes, that's a big if), he has no equal in the AL.


NL Cy Young Winner

Dan: This might be the biggest surprise among the major award winners, but I think Roy Oswalt may be the best pitcher in the NL today. Now that he has more experience under his belt, he'll be unstoppable.

cwebb: Curt Schilling takes it this year as voters get tired of the Big Unit and recognize Schilling's outstanding ability. And yes, he'll deserve it.

Arlo: The Big Unit will take this award home one last time. Sorry, young guns - you'll have to wait until next year for the changing of the guard.


AL Rookie of the Year

Dan: Mark Teixeira. His debut will be a shining one, without any Blalock-esque stumbles.

cwebb: Matsui. Just because of all the hype.

Arlo: Hideki Matsui won't win the MVP award like Ichiro did, but he'll be at the head of this year's newcomer class.


NL Rookie of the Year

Dan: Lyle Overbay. While many are hoping he'll hit for power, it's his average that will make him a rookie success.

cwebb: Aaron Cook. Two Rockies pitchers as back-to-back rookies of the year? Stranger things have happened...

Arlo: Marlon Byrd still has a lot to learn, but he'll pick up this award on talent alone.


Comeback of the Year

Dan: Mike Hampton, although I may be letting my heart cloud my judgment here.

cwebb: Kevin Brown, if he can display even a fraction of the skills that made him one of the greats of the game just a few years ago.

Arlo: Mike Hampton won't quite replace Tom Glavine, but a solid season will make pitching in Coors seem like nothing but a bad dream.


Biggest Bust

Dan: Kevin Brown. Of course there is a slight chance he will be fully healthy and pitch like his old self again. But the more I think about it, the more I feel he'll be on and off the disabled list again, and frustrate more fantasy owners than opposing hitters...

cwebb: David Wells. The only question remaining is: how will he disappoint?

Arlo: Don't make the mistake of counting on a 3.23 era from Kirk Rueter again. Even in a pitcher's park, Rueter spells trouble for a fantasy pitching staff.


What We'd Like to See Most

Dan: Great Baseball...nothing simpler than that. For the players to go out there and give their best, while we lean back and just enjoy the greatest game on earth.

cwebb: The Cubs winning it all. The Bears didn't make it to the bowl, so it's up to the Cubs to bring joy to Chicago.

Arlo: A solid comeback by Rick Ankiel. This kind of talent shouldn't go to waste.

All of us: A long-term agreement that will keep the game free of strikes, lockouts and work stoppages for years to come.

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

At this point, every team in the Major Leagues is good. Everyone is tied for first place in their respective divisions and all is well with the world. But when it is all said and done, many of those teams are going to be bad, and some will be downright ugly.

The good teams in baseball took steps in the offseason to get even better, thanks to the plethora of top-of-the-line free agents and players available through trades. The NL champion San Francisco Giants may have improved the most, adding Edgardo Alfonzo, Ray Durham, Marquis Grissom, and Jose Cruz, Jr.

Durham will try to fill the void left by Jeff Kent, who left for Houston. Though Durham is not known for his defensive play, he is a speedy lead-off man who will get on-base consistently. Edgardo Alfonzo will be as sure-handed as David Bell, whom he replaces at third, and will also provide more spark at the plate, provided that his back problems don't hamper his playing time as they did last year with the Mets.

The most important on field supplement will be Jose Cruz. Not only will he improve the team defensively in the outfield, but he will provide stability in the lineup and provide Barry Bonds with more opportunities to swing the bat at the dish.

Even though the Giants lost Bell, Kent, and pitcher Russ Ortiz, they have greatly improved over last season's numbers. Their pitching staff will be steady enough and their offense will put them at the top of the NL West.

The Giants' World Series opponents, the Anaheim Angels, took a very different approach to the offseason than the team they defeated to capture a title. The Halos did not add one player to the team that improves them for a run this season. The only losses were Dennis Cook, who was usually only visible through the "dugout cam," Orlando Palmeiro, and Alex Ochoa.

Although the very same Angels team won them a World Series last year, the other teams that they beat to get to the final series have improved, leaving us to wonder if they can make a magical run again.

The New York Yankees had another impressive offseason, making more additions than an elementary school math teacher. The Bronx Bombers signed reliever Chris Hammond to replace Mike Stanton whom they lost to the crosstown Metropolitans.

The Yanks also picked up Japanese slugger Hideki Matsui, Cuban pitching phenom Jose Contreras, utility man Todd Zeile, former Cub Jon Lieber, Antonio Osuna, and former Tigers closer Juan Acevedo.

The Yankees may arguably be the most improved team this offseason, along with the Giants, after losing Orlando Hernandez, Stanton, Ramiro Mendoza, and Shane Spencer. The loss of Mendoza, though it seems like a defeating blow, may not be such a bad thing. Ramiro had a history of injuries and inconsistency with the Yankees and can be replaced by Steve Karsay or Hammond.

Contreras has had a shaky start this spring, but will most likely improve once adjusted to the atmosphere of the major leagues. Matsui, used to the pressure of the media while playing for the Japanese equivalent of the Yankees, will probably thrive in New York and has already shown evidence that he is for real after an impressive spring start.

The bad teams in baseball were also dealers this offseason, as the Mets added several players and the Phillies made a bid to run wild in the NL East. Houston also gained ground with the addition of Jeff Kent. The Mets, even after adding Tom Glavine and Cliff Floyd, haven't seen many bright things this spring, other than their blinding orange uniforms. Glavine will be a stable starter and will bolster the NY rotation, but it won't be enough to bring them out of the gutter that is the National League East. Floyd was shaky last season, and has only had one year where he put up great numbers.

The rest of the Mets outfield consists of Timo Perez, Roger Cedeno, Jeromy Burnitz, and Tsuyoshi Shinjo. Cedeno and Burnitz will likely be the other starters and both are coming off of terrible 2002 seasons.

The pitching staff of New York isn't good enough yet to lead them to a title. The offense has improved with the addition of Floyd, but also lost ground after Alfonzo signed with San Francisco.

The Phillies are one team that did improve overall. After signing the most coveted free agent this offseason, Jim Thome, the Phils immediately went after David Bell to fill the void at third left by the departed Scott Rolen. They also seemingly stole away Kevin Millwood from Atlanta, who needed to dump him because of salary reasons.

Philadelphia's young rotation is good enough to keep them in games and their offense should give them the extra boost they need to rise to the top of the NL East.

The ugly teams in the majors stayed just that -- ugly. The Brewers, Royals, and Devil Rays will continue their runs at baseball's losing streak and lowest runs-scored records while losing their only talent because of money troubles.

One "ugly" team that might make a run at success this season is the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Bucs have always shown signs early in the year that they might make it, but then will quickly fizzle out into the backdrop of baseball ugliness. This year, with a healthy Jason Kendall, Reggie Sanders, and with the possible addition of Kenny Lofton, the Pirates might have the pieces they need to get over the hump.

Several teams left out, including Boston and Oakland, will stay right where they are now. One vital piece away from the gold. The Red Sox will hold steady at the second spot in the AL East, where they have been for years now. Pedro looks impressive now, but when he quits early in September, Boston will slide back down to where they have always been, one spot behind the Yankees.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nevin set to have shoulder surgery; could miss entire season
March 9, 2003, at 01:55 AM ET


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Peoria, AZ (Sports Network) - San Diego Padres outfielder Phil Nevin is expected to have surgery on his shoulder after he dislocated it on Friday while making a diving catch in a contest with the Chicago White Sox.

The team is unsure how long Nevin could be out of action, but it has indicated that the 32-year-old could miss the entire season and definitely will not be ready for opening day.

Nevin, who was taken to the Kino Medical Center, was injured when he dove down the left field line and made a backhanded catch. More than a dozen people gathered around Nevin, who remained on the ground for eight-to-10 minutes before being helped off the field.

Last season Nevin hit .285 with 12 home runs and 57 RBI in a year in which he struggled with arm and elbow injuries.

In 2001, Nevin batted .306 in 149 games with 41 homers and 106 RBI.

PADRES ARE LOOKIN WORSE ON PAPER.