Let's have some fun......

[kneifl]

Shorting the chit out of the homebuilders stocks. These stocks are falling like a rock off of a cliff and don't expect them to go back up soon.

Some advice....

Short names like TOL, LEN, BZH, MTH, etc.

Or you can just short the homebuilders index, XHB which is my favorite thing to do

I'm ready for 2008, and I'm going to be a big bear about it and have a big bear party once I start to buy to cover when the dow is in the gutter....

kneifl

 

[kneifl]

Made a nice mint shorting some of those shares....

Bought back @ $20.35 today. Market is now turning for the worse, expect the DOG to hit $60 soon, very soon. Bought DOG today at $58.50.

kneifl

 

[selkirk]

kneifl do you plan on shorting certain stocks and the markets over the year, or do you just expect worse news than expected in Jan-March?

I would be very bullish however though I expect billions more in write offs the situation could even be worse. I am following a bank that will probably have to take a 2 billion dollar loss, believe that is already in the stock and would be a great buy if that is all, however there is also a chance of another 3 billion loss, not a short however will wait until the picture is more clear, do not have to buy at the lows anyways.

thanks
selkirk

 

[kneifl]

Hi Kirk -

I think shorting is the way to go in Jan-March but not for the whole year. The financial situation is a mess a long with the mortgage and homebuilder crisis. Shorting the XLF, IYR, or XHB all are GREAT plays. Also, I believe their will be a drop in the market mid feb or mid march. January will probably be a bullish month as it usually is which gives us a perfect shorting opportunity. After March, I will probably get on some of my favorite stocks in Early April and trade them back and forth until December.

Just my strategy. Good luck out there this year Kirk, made a small fortune on RIMM options going into earnings - paid for Xmas and then some my Canadian friend.

kneifl

 

[kneifl]

Good time to be a bear in the market??

Told you so

Catch some shares of Apple when it is at it's cheapest near the end of this week. They have an earnings report around 1/20. They'll blow away their earnings and probably raise guidance. A great opportunity for profit here.

Stay short XLF and XHB/IYR. More of a bear market to come. The dow could hit 11,900 before this mess is cleared up.

kneifl

 

[kneifl]

SKF

SKF

Bought earlier today at 123. Come join in on the fun. It's a wild ride:00hour :00hour

kneifl

 

[djv]

Been working the DOG myself. On those home buliders. I think if I can get TOl down about another buck I might start buying slowly on other drops. Setting it up for a two year play. I mean this is cheap already. Talk about cheap BIDU. Im about ready to go back in.

 

[kneifl]

Hi djv -

Smart move working the DOG. I swapped out of the DOG yesterday (when the market was up about 100 pts) into SKF in the am and caught about a 6 or 7 dollar move. One of my better trades this month.

TOL was one of my better shorts this year, but it is currently underpriced at $16-17. Way too much land and a good balance sheet. If you were to go long for a few yrs, this would be a good stock to buy now.

Here is one to watch. I plan on shorting AIZ on Tuesday. It will fall like a rock off of a cliff by the end of next week. Currently about 63.

I'm not even playing a call spread with AAPL going into earnings right now, market is too volatile and it seems like it could be a waste of money.

kneifl

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

Bought earlier today at 123. Come join in on the fun. It's a wild ride:00hour :00hour

kneifl

sounds like a REALLY fun time....

thanks for taking us on this ride......

 

[Mags]

Hi djv -

Smart move working the DOG. I swapped out of the DOG yesterday (when the market was up about 100 pts) into SKF in the am and caught about a 6 or 7 dollar move. One of my better trades this month.

TOL was one of my better shorts this year, but it is currently underpriced at $16-17. Way too much land and a good balance sheet. If you were to go long for a few yrs, this would be a good stock to buy now.

Here is one to watch. I plan on shorting AIZ on Tuesday. It will fall like a rock off of a cliff by the end of next week. Currently about 63.

I'm not even playing a call spread with AAPL going into earnings right now, market is too volatile and it seems like it could be a waste of money.

kneifl

Jon - what do you know about Assurant? Curious why you are shorting it...

FYI - I was an executive there for 17 years before I left to start my own consulting practice....

 

[kneifl]

Jon - what do you know about Assurant? Curious why you are shorting it...

FYI - I was an executive there for 17 years before I left to start my own consulting practice....

It's about 5 or 6 points off it's 52 week high. It's another financial I think that will tank. I know the market pulled up all of the financials this past week with it's 0.75 bp rate cut. Watch what will happen when the fed only cuts 0.25 bp on 1/30 when everyone is hoping for a 0.5 bp rate cut. The financials will come crashing down, and everything else will follow. We have not hit a bottom yet.

kneifl