Let's start prayin' now....

Nole

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Isabel is gonna be a killer. You folks in the Carolinas need to start preparing. Looks like it will slowly turn north. Heck, we may get a bunch of wind and rain, with the size of this sucker.

I drove down from Tallahasse to So. Florida when I saw Andrew's size to help my dad get ready. Luckily he was north of the center.

Don't screw around folks. I mean it or I'm gonna come over there and smack ya. :)

Ajoytoy, ppabart, you hear me? :director:

nole
 

Nole

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Good stuff S-Love. Looks like the Carolinas will get wet but Virginia and D.C. are gonna get smoked. Either way, lot of rain, lot of flooding.

Be careful folks.

nole
 

KotysDad

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Wow, that storm track comes right up the mouth of the Chesapeake - practically right in my back yard.

These hurricanes are fascinating to me from a strictly science point of view - the way they can build strength only moving at about 10 mph. It's a shame they cant die out as quickly as they start and skip all the death and destruction that comes along with them.

I think the last two class 5 hurricanes that reached the US were Andrew in 92 and Camille back in the late 60s.

I hope Isabella takes a major northeast turn and just heads back up the Atlantic without reaching land.
 
S

S-Love

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Supercane Isabel
9/14/2003 9:31 A.M.
Buzz Bernard, Sr. Meteorologist, The Weather Channel

In the western Pacific, Hurricane Isabel would be called a supertyphoon. Thus, this exceptionally powerful Atlantic hurricane--with an exceptionally large eye--certainly earns the designation "supercane." Isabel, an extremely dangerous category 5 storm, continues to churn relentlessly in the direction of the continental U. S. It's beginning to look more and more like Isabel will strike the Eastern Seaboard, probably someplace north of South Carolina, before the week is out. Although Isabel may no longer be a category 5 at landfall, it's likely to still be a major hurricane with winds in excess of 100 mph. Not only that, but a building high pressure area north of Isabel may well tighten the pressure gradient on the northern and eastern sides of the storm, thus producing a large area of potentially damaging winds.
The first signs of Isabel's approach will be building surf along the East Coast, mainly from the Carolinas northward. During the day Wednesday, wave heights may increase to over 20 feet along the Mid-Atlantic Coast and as far north as the southern shore of Long Island. Today, with Isabel still several days away from the U. S., large ocean swells and dangerous surf are battering portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.
 
S

S-Love

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Tenacious Isabel Swirls Toward East Coast


By ERIK SCHELZIG, Associated Press Writer

MIAMI - Hurricane Isabel churned in the Atlantic as a Category 5 storm early Sunday, still several days from land but on a course unpredictable enough to worry residents along a large stretch of the East Coast.

"It's looking more and more likely that this is going to be a big event for the eastern United States," National Hurricane Center (news - web sites) meteorologist Eric Blake said Sunday. "But it's so far out that you can't really pinpoint it."


At 5 a.m. EDT, Isabel had maximum sustained winds of 160 mph and was centered about 340 miles north-northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, moving west-northwest at 13 mph.


Forecasters' computer models predicted it would continue on that path into Monday, then turn toward the Carolinas, possibly making landfall Thursday or Friday somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic region. However, forecasters note that hurricanes can be unpredictable, and long-range forecasts have large possibilities for error.


Still, some East Coast residents were preparing for the worst.


Even with plywood at its highest prices in a decade, Steve Myers had a steady stream of customers looking for supplies to board up windows in and around Georgetown, S.C.


At the 84 Lumber he co-manages there, a half-inch-thick sheet now costs about $20, but that's "cheaper than a $300 window," Myers said.


In coastal Georgia, the Chatham County Emergency Management Agency encouraged residents to review their hurricane plans, which should include adequate supplies, updated insurance coverage and evacuation routes.


"It's still a long ways away (but) we have to prepare as if it's coming here," said agency director Phillip Webber.


South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford and other state officials were briefed Saturday by the state Emergency Management Division on emergency preparations. The state went on an elevated alert status Friday.


Water management officials in Florida were worried about some of the already-swollen rivers and lakes, because a direct hit from a hurricane could cause severe flooding.


The U.S. State Department issued a travel warning advising tourists to avoid the Bahamas because of the storm, and large ocean swells and dangerous surf conditions were forecast for the Leeward Islands in the northeastern Caribbean.


The last Category 5 Atlantic hurricane was Mitch in 1998, which killed about 11,000 people in Central America. The last two Category 5 hurricanes to strike the United States were Andrew in 1992 and Camille in 1969.


The Atlantic hurricane season began June 1 and ends Nov. 30.
 

fletcher

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Don't take this is as joke like i did with andrew being in fl for 17 years, i livied in countryside about 26 miles inlad myself and a bso officer named andy pentacoast had to wide it out in my bath room and had nothing i mean nothing left have wrote a thread like this before if you ever want to see one live and what it does during and after come to my house when at super bowl party in vegas have 3.5 hours of tape taken by me i would never again be that stupid lost it all that is why i have the house in new smyran beach now right on beach but not much has hit around there in 100 years still get nor easterens that do damage but nothing like andrew, so if the say to go you go trust me the tape and playwood do nothing i had a shell with no roof and a blaze with a palm tree all the way through it will send it to jack and see if he can get it posted blazer was about 60 yards from where it was parked.

If you wait to long you are screwed willimgton outerbanks some of the islands around virg are just to hard to get off of hell miami to palm beach on 95 and turn pike was at a stand still really don't know what 75 was like going up to ft.myers and st.pete but sure it was all mess up to drive also, listen to a idiot who thought they were safe being 26 miles inland not a chance did the tape plywood and had storm shutters, that did not keep the roff from pealing off or sliding glass doors from poping just like a floursent light bulb when you drop it,all it did was make house with more objects to fly and we went 4 days with out water had a little but jerks were selling it for 10 buck a gall and ice 5 bucks a bag took ng and fema a few days to make there way in and had to stay in tents because you could not drivre roads to get out even if you had a car, look up andrew and i am sure there will be pictures it was unreal no trees left nothing. so please if you live around there go inland and if it does not hit you great but if you wait you could be in trouble also hotel inland will sell out smart people leave dumb people like me stay becuse i had seen the scares so many times before and nothing happend but it only takes one time skeeter1 can tell you. just be smart and safe good luck hope it moves but never count on it.

eric
 

dawgball

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When is this likely to hit DC? My wife is going up there this weekend.
 

Nosigar

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Folks, please do not underestimate ths hurricane or anyone. Been through several of them myself. You really never know where the direct hit will be until the last minute, but even if you don't get a direct hit, the winds, tornados, flooding and power outages are always an issue.

Even if you suffer no physical damage per se, Power Outage can be severe at points many miles away from the eye. Have spent 3 to 5 days without electricity, and that can be a pain. Just use common sense. Best of luck.
 

Nole

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Dawgball, I'd be cancelling my wife's trip if I were you. Peace of mind is a beautiful thing. Not sure if she's going there on business or to visit but there are always other times to get up there.
As Nosigar has stated, power outages are just about guaranteed with a storm like this. I also have been through a few hurricanes there in the panhandle. No power sucks!
I think the one thing I remember more than anything is how stupid people drive when traffic lights are out. It's an automatic 4-way stop but the folks that are on the "main" steet could gives 2 shits whether the light is out or not. Bottom line is you are depending on the other guy.
Hope this helps.

nole
 

acehistr8

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While I agree you can never take these things lightly, I think you have to understand, you will never know overreaction to weather like there is by residents of the DC/Baltimore area. Growing up in NH, panic was 24 inches or more of snow. Here on any given week its holy chit 2 inches of rain, better freak out and empty the stores of all the TP, water and milk in a 25 mile radius.

The bottom line is twofold. One, at least in this area, the forecast is still 72+hours out (for DC). According to the National Hurricane Center on the Weather Channel today, this is the fringe of what they can estimate and the average error in where a hurricane will be when forecasting 72 hours out is 300 miles. Thats a pretty wide zone. Two, lets say it hits land in NC at 110mph winds, by the time it gets to DC its going to be a tropical storm at most, right? But man people around DC love getting cranked up over shit like this, makes for great newswatching, lots of live news feeds from the toilet paper isle at Safeway showing empty aisles.

For people in NC or in the direct path of where it may make landfall, please be carefull. People should be prepared and stocking up on all the necessities like water, flashlights and batteries. Its just that in DC you hear wolf cried so many times during the year related to weather, eventually you stop listening. but I still have all my chit together, flashlights, candles and most important pet food. In case you have to pick up and go somewhere, dont forget the little ones!
 
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fletcher

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yes 72 hours away and so was andrew and it just took a little wobble to bring it into us in s.fl and by then it was almost impossiable to get out.

noe i for got about the traffic lights down in miami and lauderdale it was like a demo derby at major cross streets and they were out for a few days.

nosigar can tell you about the water scalpers i think he was down there when i was and so was biggy trust me more things can happen then your mind can think of. a wobble here or there can make it hit where you think you are safe trust me not safe and 24 hours does not cut it it is tight because if a 24 hour is givien everyone who is going to go will be getting gas and clogging the roads and it will be tuff to find lodging inland ask the people in cent fl they got swamped. tues night would be my get out time if it looks like it could be 100 miles north or south of you.
 

Bluemound Freak

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I was a mere Sophomore in College when Hurricane Opel hit the shores of the Gulf Coast! I was in Auburn Alabama which is 3.5 hours from the coast and I thought the thing had landed on Toomers Corner! I could not imagine what it would be like being on the coast while one of these babies were tearing down on you! I was out of power for a week and had trees down and roofs blown off and was over 100 miles from where it hit land! Guys hit the road if you have the time, which I think there is plenty!
 

acehistr8

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I'm not making light of or downplaying what you went through Eric, I'm just saying theres geographically a big difference in a hurricane hitting coastal Florida or South Carolina at max speed and the impact it has and the chances of one hitting inland Washington DC at max speed. In Florida, yeah you get the max brunt no denying that. The Potomac/Chesapeake is a cold body of inland water so you would never get something like this sneaking up on us and continuing to gain strength like it could in the Atlantic. For folks in NC/Outer Banks there is still a huge danger and yes we will probably get clobbered with storm conditions. All I was saying is in the past when tropical storms and hurricanes have come up the coast like this, they peter out for the most part. The max winds have already decreased by 30 mph so by the time it hits land and moves to DC at 8mph what we will end up with is a really bad storm. Our real danger would be if the storm skirted the coast building over water then ducking inland, that could be very bad, but right now they dont think that will happen. And hey I hope they are right but there isnt much I can do to control the weather other than stock up on supplies which we have. Being prepared is the best we can do right now.

Understand too that if you told everyone in this area right now to evacuate, you could not do it in 72 hours the gridlock and traffic would be that bad. So for those of you used to evacuation routes and hurricane plans and all that, nothing like that exists here there are really 3 main routes out of town which cant even handle a normal days rush hour let alone a full on evac.
 
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fletcher

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ace i was meaning more for the people around outter banks and sc maybe south virg, you are right about the cool water taking steam out but i was saying for people in the nc and sc aera not to trust the forcast because of a wobble in your aera nor easterens are more of a problem and been though a few of those in fl big waves lots of wind but nothing like when they get up around you and higher in the winter. if i was in the nc aera i would be ready to go dc will be fine except for all the tornados they spawn off but that happend inland up to a few 100 miles i hope it makes a fast turn and goes up and skirts at worst but just don't think that will happen and no dc balt could not get out 72 maybe less then that would be the worse fl only has a few ways out till you get passed vero on the west cost have to get to ft.myers and then have a shot in the keys forget it if it comes you need to be ready to roll.

good luck to anyone in the aera there will be wind and rain far in land if it makes a direct hit on the coast some where.
 

SixFive

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those hurricanes sound awful. I'm glad I've never been around one first hand.

Ace, on you point of D.C. citizens overeacting to weather, you should see Kentuckians if we have any snow forecast. You can only park within about a quarter of a mile of the WalMart, people are stocking up their cupboards, the stores run out of generators, etc. it's just ridiculous. Best time to go out and eat is on a snow day. Have the restaurant to yourself assuming the employees of the restaurant showed up :rolleyes: People where I work that live all highway and less than 5 miles away will call in for the weather. Ridiculous!
 

Nole

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Boy 6-5, you're right about that. These folks here in K-ville totally "freak" if a freaking snow flake blows by. My co-workers will say, "I have to go home early, there's a blizzard coming!" Pisses me off most when my boys are in day-care and the school comes a calling, "we have to close early because of the approaching snow." Guarantee you its barely a dusting. Gotta take off work but how can I do that when suddenly everyone at work lives in the mountains and they have to leave before they get snowed out of their homes. What a croc!

Looks like Isabel is losing some steam. That's great news!

You folks in the Md./Va. area still should prepare for some power outages though. That's about a guaranteed LOCK! Did I say the "L" word? :)

Take care.

nole
 

ajoytoy

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Re: Let's start prayin' now....

Nole in Vol Land said:
Isabel is gonna be a killer. You folks in the Carolinas need to start preparing. Looks like it will slowly turn north. Heck, we may get a bunch of wind and rain, with the size of this sucker.

I drove down from Tallahasse to So. Florida when I saw Andrew's size to help my dad get ready. Luckily he was north of the center.

Don't screw around folks. I mean it or I'm gonna come over there and smack ya. :)

Ajoytoy, ppabart, you hear me? :director:

nole
finally saw your thread nole....thx s-love for the tracker....we seem to be OK in central NC, BUT you never know with these things...i am sure that there will be some crazy weather regardless here.....hope everyone gets thru this one safely!!

take care all
 
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