Let's try these...

[buddy]

714....(noon)....seton hall +12' v BC.....win (+1/2 ATS)

791....(5:30)....WISC-MILW -10 v clev st...win

797....(7:00)....marshall +1 @ OHIO.....loss (ugly)

817....(7:00)....ODU -12' v jimmy madison.....win

830....(8:00)....N'WSTRN -5 v michigan.....win

845...(10:00)...SDST +3 v new mexico.....loss (ugly)

886....(8:30)....jax st +12 @ TENN ST.....win

Adding:

795....central mich +14.....loss (ugly)

852.....UNLV -3.....win

All times EST

Final tally 6-3

(The ugly losses have my attention.)

 

[nchiappetta]

Tom,

Can you tell me why people are liking Marshall here. I view them as a bottom feeder of the MAC and Ohio as a middle of the road team with some impressive wins in the conference (I guess they also have some soft losses too.) 7-3 in their last ten with a road win at Buffalo and Detroit, and quality conference wins at home against the likes of BG, Miami, Toledo, and W. Michigan. I thought the points here would be somewhere around 5-6. Any thoughts?

 

[buddy]

Given the last four outcomes for each team, this line seems to be soft. Marshall has been in the role of a dog their last few games and has one meager loss/cover to show for their effort. Ohio, otoh, is 3-1 SU / 2-2 ATS. What concerns me is their game against Akron. Ohio was a 5 pt home chalk and lost outright by 20. From a recent won/loss standpoint, reason and logic might point in Ohio's direction. But I smell a rat in this matchup, and I think the rat is offering a cheesy 1' pt. Bottom line - this just looks "too easy" for Ohio.

Question for you - What should you do if it sounds like a duck and looks like a duck?

 

[nchiappetta]

Thanks for the insight....it is a duck then.

However, I also like the theory that the linesmakers make lines to get people to jump based on the previous game or two outcomes, thinking that the public is most likely to remember the last game or two (which coudl have just been a down day for a team) and not look at their entire resume of games. Even your capping methods say to go back 10 games, in which Ohio is 7-3 SU/6-4 ATS. Marshall on the otherhand is 2-8 SU/4-6 ATS.

I laid big on Ohio last night so I am obviously rooting for the Bobcats. Good luck on the day Tom.

 

[buddy]

Good luck, Nick.

I just hope you're spending time in review or at least saving the game cards so you can do it at a later date.

 

[buddy]

I wrote..."Question for you - What should you do if it sounds like a duck and looks like a duck?"

Answer - You'd better "duck" or you're gonna' get your head blown off.