Line Movement Article

soul train

Go Mets!
Forum Member
Jan 10, 2005
8,807
20
0
My how things change in the preseason. Just check out the line movement for today?s Hall of Fame game between the Chicago Bears and Miami Dolphins and you?ll see for yourself.

The Dolphins opened as 1 ?-point home favorites when the line was released at most online sportsbooks early last week, but the spread has shifted more than a field goal since then and Miami now sits at +3 for tonight?s nationally televised contest on ABC at 8 p.m. ET. The annual Hall of Fame game will be played at Fawcett Stadium in Canton, Ohio.

Even though it`s preseason, this is still a pretty big move," says professional oddsmaker Keith Glantz. "Not that the books are in as much jeopardy as they`d be in the regular season with this sort of move, but still the books would certainly like to win this one."

Lines tend to move more in the preseason for a few main reasons. One is that books set lower limits for preseason games, which means it takes less action to move a line. Most sharp handicappers also agree that the spread is affected more by breaking news and information in the preseason than at any other time of year.

The widespread belief seems that the Bears will improve this season after an injury-riddled 2004 campaign. Glantz says Chicago is getting some solid support with Super Bowl futures action at odds of about +7500. Miami, meanwhile, hasn`t even settled on a starting quarterback and the club is looking to erase the sour memory of last year`s 4-12 season.

Still, this line movement remains a bit of a mystery.

"It (the line move) really doesn`t make much sense to me," says Glantz. "The Bears` starters will be playing less than a quarter while Miami`s QB controversy continues as (A.J.) Feeley and (Gus) Frerotte will share the duties tonight."

Don`t feel bad if you`re puzzled by the line moves, too. Seems it`s a common theme for this game.

?I usually don?t put a lot of stock in consensus reports, but I have checked a few and at those particular sites the majority of the action is on Miami,? says Covers Expert Shawn Torrey. ?However the line is moving the other way. Take that for what it`s worth, but personally I find too many question marks surrounding both these teams tonight to favor one side or the other. I?m playing the total [set at 33 1/2].?

The Dolphins are operating with a new coach, Nick Saban, and the most recent news is they are putting an added emphasis on preseason play.

?Saban will no doubt want to win his debut like Bears coach Lovie Smith did last year, ? says Torrey. ?Miami is riding the emotional high of sending Dan Marino to the Hall of Fame too, but on the other hand, Chicago is working through the basics of a new offense and working with only the first few chapters of the playbook.

?The Bears will be improved this season, but this steam may be a little overheated."

The last time these clubs met in a preseason matchup was in 2002 when Miami won 24-22 but failed to cover the spread as a 2 ?-point home favorite. The combined 46 points easily topped the 32-point total.
 
Bet on MyBookie
Top