Line movement note

[Nick Douglas]

I'm about to get some sleep but I made a quick check of the 3/24 NBA lines and I want to post something. When I checked at about 10 pm PST, Here was the spread and moneyline on the Bucks:

Oly: +4.5, +160
Pin: +4 +104, +172
CRIS: +3.5, +150

Now here are the lines 3.5 hours later:

Oly: +3, +140
Pin: +4 -110, +158
CRIS: +3, +150

Obviously the Bucks have been bet hard. Almost to the point that you can scalp Pinny's own line against itself just 3.5 hours later.

They are on a b2b, 3 in 4 with a big win in Sacramento the night before. Seems like a classic letdown spot but assuming a Miami win in Orlando (which they will know the result of before tipoff) they will be just 1 game ahead of 6th (and a 1st round meeting with Detroit rather than New Orleans) if they lose. Last west coast trip Bucks had a big win vs. Portland and then came out flatter than yesterday's frisbee vs. Clips right after. Milwaukee papers had plenty of quotes the next day about how the perf was terrible, etc.

My point in all of this is that I think that was "sharp" money pounding the Bucks overnight. Now, the value in Milwaukee was at 4.5 when it opened but for those of you who don't believe in line value, this appears to be a clear cut case of being able to follow the sharp money and make a wager that makes sense to boot.

In the interest of full disclosure I am not betting this game because I am a great fan of the Bucks so I choose not to bet sides on their games.

 

[CrazyHorse]

Thanks for the info Nick!

I had targetted this as a go against spot for the Bucks this weekend. Just like you said they should be in a classic "let down spot". Also throw in the fact before they played Sacto they played the Lakeshow sunday nite and lost by 1 in OT so to me this seems like a great spot..4th game in 5 nights...off close OT loss to Lakers then a win vs the Kings last nite.

At any rate I have already put 30 on GSW for the 1st half and 100 for the game. To be honest I expected the line to be closer to GSW -1.5 or 2. After all the Bucks were 2 pt road favs over Phoenix the game before they played the Lakers. And GSW is only 3 games ahead of PHO in the standings. I just figured they were obviously factoring in let down and 4th game in 5 nites, thus the line being 2 pts higher than I expected. It is worrisome about the line movement. But this is a spot I will bet against the Bucks 100 out of 100 times.

Also I was born in Milwaukee myself. I like to see them do well but I need the money more. Thanks again Nick for the info.

 

[gsp]

This indicates to me that the money is going on Mil and the line is still going down. I will have to take a wait and see attitude on this one.

 

[Sports Psychic]

Other factors to consider here is it is not mentioned but Michael Redd has a hip pointer he suffered about a week ago and coicincidentely has been struggling with his shot the last couple games. Damon Jones has been having problems with his back and this has limited playing time for him in the second half of games. Bucks are already thin at the point with TJ Ford out and you are seeing brevon Knight playing more and tonite Eric strickland will have to probobly play more. Really like G.State tonite.I think Bucks wear down late in the game.

 

[yyz]

I can't see any value tonight. I can understand the argument for going against the Bucks, but the way they have been playing on the coast, would you be surprised if they won?

I would wait for a better spot.

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Interesting that there is a lot of traffic on this game -- I already had GOLDEN STATE as a strong play before seeing this thread. My reason for betting GS with a large wager is pretty simple:

-- The bottom rung of West Conference teams tend to play very well against East teams (clearly an interior conference). They seem to look at the games versus East as "winnable" whereas games versus their own conference are much tougher. I had Utah the other night playing in Cleveland-- everyone was going bonkers on the Cavs and Utah (dead last in the division) kicked the sh*t out of them on their how court by double digits.

-- It all comes down to some teams playing very well at home, and other struggling on the road. MILWaukee (a very strong home team) is a dismal 11-24 SU on the road. Meanwhile, the Warriors are 21-13 on Oakland. If the Warriors got to play that soft Estern Conference schedule, they would probably be a .500 team.

-- Warriors went through a 9-game losing streak a few weeks ago, and are now over that psychological baggage. This team plays fired up ball at home, proven by their dismantling of San Antonio on the home court a week ago.

Golden State is a gift here at -3 / -4 This line whould be -6.5 given the dispairty of home/away records.

-- Nolan Dalla

 

[ocelot]

Off the wall prediction: Warriors win by 9

 

[Valuist]

Milwaukee has a very strong dichotemy re: conference games and non-conference games. The Bucks are 29-15 ATS vs the East but only 7-17 ATS vs the West.

 

[Nick Douglas]

Golden State must *really* be a gift now at -2.5.

 

[Dominator]

Erm.. is it just me, or have most of you missed the main reason why the lined have moved so much on Bucks ?

Warriors center Erick Dampier didn't practice Tuesday because of the stomach flu.

I would say that he pretty much makes up for the 2 point move.

I also liked GS at first look, but if Dampier doesn't play I will pass on this game..

 

[THE ONLY ONE]

Troy Murphy is also questionable for the Warriors. Speedy and Nick "the quick" are both still out of action which leaves the "has been" Avery Johnson and Dunleavy running the point. This is a helluva tough game to call IMO but if I had a gun to my head I would take the Bucks.

 

[Nick Douglas]

What a call by ocelot.

 

[ocelot]

Thanks Nick...too bad I didn't play it. Wasn't one of my system plays.