LIVE UNDERDOG: Motivated UCF right at home

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LIVE UNDERDOG: Motivated UCF right at home

Rutgers, expecting nicer destination, shaky St. Petersburg Bowl favorite




Before the bowl dominoes started falling and dismantling some teams' postseason plans, Rutgers coach Greg Schiano had created a schedule centered around a post-Christmas matchup against a team from a major conference.

Practice schedules were drawn up and recruiting trips mapped out based on the Scarlet Knights' expectations of playing sometime after Christmas.

As fate would have it, however, the chips fell in such a fashion that Rutgers was relegated to a bid in today's St. Petersburg Bowl against Conference USA entry Central Florida.

Not exactly what Schiano and his team had in mind.

Motivation can play a prominent role in the early bowls, and the Rutgers-Central Florida game appears to fall in that category -- one team perhaps wishing it was somewhere else and the other primed to play an opponent from a bigger conference.

The site of the game also puts a check mark in Central Florida's corner because St. Petersburg is approximately 100 miles from its campus.

Central Florida is coached by George O'Leary and led by running back Brynn Harvey, a sophomore who has rushed for 1,077 yards and 14 touchdowns.

In recent years, Big East bowl favorites of 61/2 points or fewer are just 2-6 against the spread (ATS). With motivational, site and technical edges all on their side, take the Golden Knights as 21/2-point underdogs.

More bowl plays over the next seven days:

NEW MEXICO BOWL, Today

? Wyoming (+11) over Fresno State -- If this game was played in September or even midseason, Fresno State might be the more attractive side. But the bowl season is a different animal.

While the Bulldogs have basked in the glow of challenging top-flight Bowl Championship Series competition during coach Pat Hill's tenure, they are cast here in their less desirable role of laying double-digit points.

Fresno State has failed to cover in its past five attempts as a bowl favorite, and one should expect Wyoming to be highly motivated in just its second bowl appearance in the past 16 years and only its 12th in program history.

MAACO BOWL LAS VEGAS, Tuesday

? Brigham Young-Oregon State (Over 581/2) -- Money has come in under the total since this game opened in Las Vegas, but I still believe these high-flying offenses will put up points. BYU averages 34.8 points per game, and Oregon State comes in at 32.4.

Neither squad does a great job of pressuring the passer, and quarterbacks Max Hall and Sean Canfield are likely selections in April's NFL Draft. Oregon State, led by Jacquizz and James Rodgers, averaged 35 points per game in Pac-10 play.

POINSETTIA BOWL, Wednesday

? Utah (+4) over California -- In this type of matchup, it is difficult to imagine the Pac-10 team bringing the same collective amount of energy to the table as its Mountain West opponent.

Although not on the same level as some of its recent editions, Utah has been a solid bowl performer in the past, recording a 9-3 ATS mark in its past 12 postseason appearances. It does not hurt that Cal's top offensive playmaker, Jahvid Best, is not expected to play because of injury.

HAWAII BOWL, Thursday

? Southern Methodist (+15) over UNR -- Former Hawaii coach June Jones wasted little time in raising SMU's program from the Division I scrap pile, getting the Mustangs a ticket into the postseason in his second year.

SMU is treating this minor bowl appearance as its Super Bowl and should get the royal treatment in Jones' return to the Islands.

Meanwhile, UNR faced Fresno State and Boise State in two of its final three regular-season games and probably will not bring the same intensity.
 

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Beware of disinterested favorites in bowl season

Beware of disinterested favorites in bowl season

Beware of disinterested favorites in bowl season
Anticipating a trip to Las Vegas excites most people. Oregon State football coach Mike Riley might be an exception.

Riley's life would be more intriguing now if he were preparing for the Rose Bowl. But the Beavers fell short of Pasadena, Calif., by losing to Oregon 37-33 on Dec. 3 and stumbling a few steps down the Pacific-10 Conference's bowl ladder.

Welcome to Sam Boyd Stadium for the MAACO Bowl Las Vegas, the granddaddy of all the pre-Christmas bowl games.

Brigham Young (10-2) is making its fifth consecutive bowl appearance in Las Vegas. Oregon State (8-4) is preparing for the second-place team from the Mountain West Conference. It's an attractive matchup of ranked teams, but is either team excited to be here playing under the Tuesday night lights?

If you're considering betting on any or all of the 34 bowls, the motivation question requires speculation.

"It's one of the larger determining factors in starting to find the right side of a game," Playbook.com handicapper Marc Lawrence said. "You don't want to be on a team that is disinterested or disappointed in the bowl game, especially the disinterested favorite."

Because it smelled the Rose Bowl but just missed out, "Oregon State probably would be the classic case," Lawrence said. "I like the BYU side of the game for that reason."

Lawrence added more reasons for backing the Cougars, who are 2-point underdogs at most sports books. For those who prefer the 'dog, the best line available is plus-3 at MGM Mirage books.

In his comprehensive "Bowl Stat Report," Lawrence crunches more numbers than a Goldman Sachs Group accountant. His calculations conclude BYU should be a 10-point winner.

The Cougars, led by 24-year-old quarterback Max Hall, are 2-2 in their past four Las Vegas bowl trips. Hall recently admitted BYU had little interest in playing last year's game, a 31-21 loss to Arizona.

The Beavers are 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread in their past five bowls under Riley. Oregon State was a 1-point favorite in its boring 3-0 victory over Pittsburgh in last year's Sun Bowl.

There is no questioning the Beavers' talent -- quarterback Sean Canfield, running back Jacquizz Rodgers and flanker James Rodgers -- but we don't know if Riley can motivate his team for this bowl.

The postseason kicks off Saturday with the New Mexico Bowl, where Fresno State is an 11-point favorite over Wyoming. Lawrence sees the Cowboys as live underdogs, and they fit that profile with first-year coach Dave Christensen and freshman quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels among the few who will be excited to be in Albuquerque.

"I think Fresno State is a disappointed favorite, a team with bigger and better visions," Lawrence said.

It's interesting to note, Lawrence said, that the favorite was a straight-up loser in the Bulldogs' past eight bowls.

Lawrence and Northcoast Sports handicapper Phil Steele each produce newsletters with thorough scouting reports and projections on the bowls. Steele also sides with Wyoming on Saturday, and he has a four-star play on BYU over Oregon State.

Steele put a two-star rating on Southern Mississippi as a 31/2-point favorite over Middle Tennessee in the New Orleans Bowl on Sunday.

This time of year reminds me of the great bowling movie ''Kingpin,'' in which Roy Munson (Woody Harrelson) duels with Ernie McCracken (Bill Murray) in the finals of a $1 million tournament in Reno. McCracken rolled three consecutive strikes to beat Munson in the finals.

I'm entered in several bowl-game office pools, none worth anywhere close to $1 million.

Here are my top three plays: Miami (-3) over Wisconsin in the Champs Sports Bowl, Stanford (+8) over Oklahoma in the Sun Bowl and Oregon (-31/2) over Ohio State in the Rose Bowl.

It's time to go bowling, so put on your clown shoes and your handicapping hat, and good luck rolling strikes.
 

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Las Vegas Money Moves

Las Vegas Money Moves

College Football Notes

In the College Bowl action, we?re seeing a lot of the first wave of Bowl games move back closer to the opening numbers. Fresno State had been bet up to a 12 ?-point favorite from the opener of 11, but has now seen Wyoming money push it to 11 ?.

Rutgers saw some early action as the favorite against Central Florida, but has now been pushed back to the opener of 2 ?.

In one of the better Bowl games, the Las Vegas Bowl, BYU has gotten some action after the initial move was laying Oregon State. The Beavers are currently 1 ?-point favorites after being as high as 2 ?.

Nevada had seen the most action of all the Bowls moving from the opener of 14 to 16 ?, but some SMU money has come in settling the line at 15 in the Hawaii Bowl.

Despite Cal RB Javhid Best likely not playing in the Poinsetta Bowl against Utah, Cal money moved the game from 3 to 4.

Boston College got the first move their way in the Emerald Bowl against USC. The Trojans opened as 9-point favorites and are down to 8 ?.

Oklahoma has a tough game against Stanford, even without the possibility of QB Andrew Luck not starting for Stanford in the Sun Bowl. The Sooners opened up as 9-point favorites and have been bet down to 8 and then more recently 7 ?, where it stands now.

A good way to handicap some of the bowl games is find the best power conference top-to-bottom and roll with them in the bowls. And likewise, find the weakest conference and bet against them. The general opinion of many is that the SEC or the Big 12 provide the best top-to-bottom action.

This season, the mighty SEC has a record 10 teams going to Bowl games. Last season they had eight go with a record of 6-2. The worst record in Bowls last season was the MAC going 0-5 with the Big 10 stinking it up going 1-6 in their seven bowl games.

Of all the conferences this season, top to bottom, I?d have to say the Pac-10 looks to have the best chance at having the best record just as they did last season going 5-0 in their Bowl games. Many east of the Mississippi don?t have respect for the west teams, but I?d take my chances with any of the top six Pac-10 teams against any other conferences top six.

The seventh team from the Pac-10 to make it was UCLA who is a 4-point favorite over Temple. The only Pac-10 team not favored is Stanford and that line has been dropping.

The Pac-10 has things set up right in their conference with every team playing each other every year. No one gets a bye year from a top team like in the other conferences, and they make each other better down the tough November/early-December stretch as they pound one another. By the time Bowl season rolls around, they are just ready in a way that few conferences are.
 

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Let's go Bowling

Let's go Bowling

Let's go Bowling
December 17, 2009
By Marc Lawrence


It?s that time of the year where we head to the alleys and look to knock down anything in our path. No, we?re not talking street gangs or the PBA. It?s the last leg of the 2009 College Football season and with it the last chance to stuff the stockings for the holidays.

With that, let spin through the college football games on tap this week. From the Playbook College Bowl Stat Report, here are some of the good, bad and ugly stats and trends. All records are ATS unless noted otherwise. We?ll be back next Thursday with Round Two?




NEW MEXICO BOWL Wyoming: bowlers with 6-6 records are 20-10? 3-13 vs opponents with winning record Fresno State ? 3-2 ATS and In The Stats vs bowlers this season? double-digit WAC bowlers are 1-4

ST. PETERSBURG BOWL Central Florida: CUSA bowlers 11-2 vs opponent off SU and ATS loss? 2-11 vs Big East opponents Rutgers: 18-7-1 off win vs opponent of win with Schiano? 1-4 SU and In The Stats vs fellow bowlers this season

NEW ORLEANS BOWL Middle Tennessee State: 3-0 SU and ATS vs CUSA opponents? 0-2 SU, ATS and In The Stats vs bowlers this season Southern Mississippi: 5-1 bowl games vs opponent off BB SU and ATS wins? 1-3 In The Stats vs bowlers this season

LAS VEGAS BOWL BYU: 9-4-1 dog or fav 4 or less points vs Pac 10? opponent?s win-loss percentage .465 this season Oregon State: 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in bowl games L5Y? PAC 10 bowl favorites 3-15 vs opponent of loss or win of 3 or less points

POINSETTIA BOWL Utah: 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS bowl games L9Y? 1-4 vs fellow bowlers this season California: PAC 10 bowlers 10-2 SU and ATS L2Y? 0-3 bowl favorite vs opponent off loss

HAWAII BOWL SMU: Jones 48-14 SU vs opponent off loss? 1-4 SU and In The Stats vs fellow bowlers this season Nevada: 5-1 w/rest vs sub .666 opp with Ault? DD WAC bowl favorites 1-4
 

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Betting the Bowls Begins!

Betting the Bowls Begins!

Betting the Bowls Begins!

Do we really need 34 bowl games, not really. But do we need a bunch of worthless apps on our cell phones or what about all the waste on Direct TV, how many of those channels go unused? The bowl season is blast because you can watch whatever you want, whenever you want. And for the sports bettor its Christmas every day, with games packed into watchable segments. These 20 days of college football reminds me of the Travel Channel?s Man vs. Food and if you stomach all 34 games, man wins!

New Mexico Bowl
Wyoming vs. Fresno State
University Stadium ? Albuquerque, NM
4:30E ESPN

The best aspect of playing the very first game of the college football bowl season is you don?t have a long layoff from the end of your last game and you can be home for the holidays. The first contest also ends up being the center of attention for the crazy people that watch every bowl game (guilty as charged) and those that feel compelled to not be very selective and wager on all 34 games because of how they are spread out.

By extremely subjective means, this bowl rates the 27th best to watch. It starts with Fresno State (8-4, 7-4-1 ATS) who has strong characteristics to take in this bowl game. They have a star player in junior running back Ryan Mathews, who led the nation in rushing at 151.3.

The Bulldogs ranked 19th in total offense at 435.9 yards per game and 15th in scoring at 34.3 points per game. Though some might question Fresno State?s resolve with repeat appearance in Albuquerque, coach Pat Hill will have none of that talk. ?This game and this experience will be good for the development of our team and program as we build toward the future,? Hill told the Fresno Bee.

Since Hill has been at FSU, he?s always been an ?us against them? coach and losing last year to another Mountain West team (40-35 to Colorado State) just adds incentive. The Bulldogs are notorious bad bets and after nipping Illinois at the wire 53-52 in Champaign, they are 2-11 ATS after allowing 50 points or more in last game. On the season they are 1-4 SU against fellow bowlers with three covers.
Wyoming (6-6, 8-3 ATS) isn?t a very good team, however they dressed up rather nicely for bettors with superior spread record. First year coach Dave Christensen made a lot of changes, but the most important was the turnover margin. Last season?s 4-8 team was -22, this year a complete alternation to +7. On the year Wyoming is 5-0 and 4-0 ATS when they scored 29 or more points and were 0-5 and 2-3 ATS when they totaled 10 or few points. (Shutout three times)

The Cowboys are 2-10 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons and will have to match points to stay in the game with Fresno State who allows 27.2 PPG. Wyoming is 1-5 and 4-2 ATS against bowl teams this season.

These teams used to meet annually when they played in the WAC together until 1997. Fresno State is 10-8 SU and 6-6 ATS in bowls and is 0-5 ATS as a favorite. Wyoming is 5-6 and 3-3 ATS in bowl assignments and has not been favored in last six. The underdog has won and covered two of three New Mexico Bowls.

Bookmaker.com has Fresno State 10.5-point favorite with total of 55.

Power Line ? Fresno State by 11
? Wyoming covers

St. Petersburg Bowl
Central Florida vs. Rutgers
Tropicana Field ? St. Petersburg, FL
8:00E ESPN

Later on the first night of bowling, this bowl matchup comes in at 28th which might sound a little low; given both teams have pretty solid records. What this matchup lacks is sex appeal, kind of like looking for Elin Nordegren and winding up with Mindy Lawton. (Cheap Tiger shot, but fitting) Both Central Florida and Rutgers were 8-4 on the season and each is known for above average defenses and inconsistent offenses.

UCF (9-2 ATS) has to make the relatively short journey down I-4 from Orlando and coach George O?Leary relishes the opportunity. ?We are thrilled to have this opportunity to play so close to our fans in St. Petersburg,? O?Leary said. ?It will be great to have a large fan base behind us as we go for our ninth victory against a quality team from the Big East Conference. It is a great opportunity and one that I know our players wanted.?

The Knights strength is defense. Central Florida is fifth nationally in sacks, averaging 3.1 per game and registered 7.6 tackles for loss (11th overall). Of the 120 teams in the FBS, they were fourth in stopping the run at 82.5 yards per game against teams that averaged 146 YPG. UCF is 6-0 ATS after one or more consecutive SU wins and since last year.

Rutgers (5-7 ATS) probably ended up where they belonged, yet the season had a tinge of disappointment. The offense and defense dismantled weaker competition save Syracuse, but the Scarlet Knights were 0-3 SU and ATS against the best three teams from the Big East, being outscored 95-53. The offensive line was supposed to be the strong suit of Rutgers, however they have been irresolute, which comprised quarterback Tom Savage?s freshman campaign. With Central Florida?s ability to make plays up the field, the O-Line will have to step. The Scarlet Knights lost their last game to West Virginia and is 26-12 ATS off a loss against a conference rival.

The Knights from Florida are 2-4 and 4-2 ATS against bowl squads in 2009. The Knights from New Jersey are 2-3 SU and ATS vs. teams playing in the postseason. This is Central Florida?s third bowl contest and they have yet to post a victory (1-1 ATS). This is Rutgers fifth consecutive bowl and they are 3-2 SU and ATS all-time.

Bookmaker.com has Rutgers favored by 2.5 with total of 44.

Power Line ? Rutgers by 7
Rutgers covers
 

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Top Bowl Game Series Trends

Top Bowl Game Series Trends

Top Bowl Game Series Trends

As we make final preparations for what we hope to be another prosperous bowl season, we must leave no stone unturned. There are so many factors to consider as we look at the bowl games on tap for the next few weeks. One of the nicest things we have on our side however, is time. At no point in the season are we given such a lengthy period to study teams? strengths, weaknesses, and tendencies, and opposed to the season?s opening week, we are dealing with known?s rather than unknown?s.

With that in mind, one of the factors you should consider when handicapping the bowl games is the history of that particular bowl series. One of the things we do here annually each December at *** is take a look back at the recent history of each individual bowl game series, uncovering trends that have developed. I personally receive numerous e-mails each December from readers wondering when this particular piece will come out, as it always seems to be one of the more popular pieces in our bowl game coverage each year. There are just certain patterns which form in these bowl series? that can?t be ignored.

Be sure to make mental notes of the top trends you see below for each individual bowl series?, and track all of them as we weave our way through the upcoming 34-game buffet of college football. The games, along with their corresponding matchups and trends, are conveniently listed in calendar order for you to easily follow and refer back to when game day arrives. You?ll see that while some of them simply refer to favorites/underdogs, conferences or totals, others are noted with ?designated home team?. Note that this is not a team playing on its home field, but rather the team listed on the bottom of the matchup and wearing the home uniforms.

Saturday, December 19th
NEW MEXICO BOWL - (201) WYOMING vs. (202) FRESNO ST [-10.5, 55]: In this battle of Mountain West and WAC teams, the Mountain West team has won two straight games both SU & ATS. The UNDER and underdog are also 2-1. Wyoming would figure to have the edge based upon the aforementioned figures. However, the spreads for the three games have been -1.5, -2, and -2.5, so in each case the games were expected to be competitive. This one is double-digits.

ST PETERSBURG BOWL - (203) UCF vs. (204) RUTGERS [-2.5, 45]: Last year?s St. Petersburg Bowl game was the first college bowl game hosted at ?The Trop?, better known as the home of baseball?s Tampa Bay Rays. Tampa-based South Florida was an unofficial ?host? for that game, and didn?t show Memphis much hospitality, routing the Tigers 41-14 as a 10.5-point favorite. UCF would have a ?regional? advantage, but Rutgers is still the favorite.

Sunday, December 20th
NEW ORLEANS BOWL - (205) MIDDLE TENN ST vs. (206) SOUTHERN MISS [-3.5, 59]: Conference USA snapped a 3-game SU & ATS winning streak by the Sun Belt with last year?s Southern Miss win over Troy. Four straight New Orleans? Bowl games have gone OVER the total. Southern Miss is making its fourth New Orleans Bowl appearance in six year, against four different opponents. The Golden Eagles are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in the prior three.

Tuesday, December 22nd
LAS VEGAS BOWL - (207) BYU vs. (208) OREGON ST [-2, 60.5]: The Las Vegas Bowl has seen the favored team win but fail to cover in four of the 11 lined games. In fact, overall, the underdog owns a 6-4-1 ATS edge in that span. This bowl series has also proven to be a low-scoring one as well, as the UNDER is 8-3 since ?98 with the losing team scoring just 15.4 PPG. BYU could make Las Vegas its second home, as it is appearing in this game for the fifth straight time, having gone 2-2 SU & ATS.

Wednesday, December 23rd
POINSETTIA BOWL - (209) UTAH vs. (210) CALIFORNIA [-3, 53]: Last year?s Poinsettia Bowl pitted this season?s two non-BCS party crashers, Boise State and TCU. The Horned Frogs won that game to push the Mountain West winning streak to 3-games in this series, but failed to cover the pointspread as 3-point favorites. The last two games have been decided by a combined 4-points, with the underdog winning ATS in both. California, playing just down the coast, makes the first ever appearance for the Pac 10.

Thursday, December 24th
HAWAII BOWL - (211) SMU vs. (212) NEVADA [-14, 73.5]: Favorites and underdogs have alternated spread victories for the last five years, and based on that pattern, it would be the underdog?s turn to do so in ?09. This has been a very high scoring bowl series, with the winning team having surpassed the 35-point mark all but once since ?95 while averaging 44.9 PPG. The OVER is 12-2 in that span. Conference USA is 2-3 SU but 4-1 ATS in the game. Nevada last played here in ?05, winning a 49-48 shootout over UCF.

Saturday, December 26th
LITTLE CEASARS PIZZA BOWL - (213) OHIO U [-2, 50] vs. (214) MARSHALL: The Motor City Bowl gets a new name for ?09, with Little Ceasar?s Pizza stepping up to fill the spot. It could be a welcomed change for the MAC, as teams from that conference have gone just 2-5 SU & ATS in the L7 games of the series. In terms of totals, seven of the L10 games have gone UNDER. In past Motor City Bowl games with lines of 6-points or higher, the dog is 3-1 ATS. In those with at less than six, the favorite is 5-3 ATS. Marshall played in this game in ?97, ?98, & ?99, winning the latter two.

MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL - (215) N CAROLINA vs. (216) PITTSBURGH [-3, 44.5]: This ACC-Big East bowl series has been dominated by the ACC, 5-1 ATS since ?02, as West Virginia won the game last year over North Carolina but failed to cover. The OVER & UNDER have alternated each of the previous seven years? totals, meaning the pattern indicates UNDER for ?09. Interestingly, that same alternating trend has developed for the favorite/underdog result as well, putting the favorite in place to get it done this season, that being Pittsburgh.

EMERALD BOWL - (217) BOSTON COLLEGE vs. (218) USC [-9, 44]: The Pac 10 has won consecutive Emerald Bowl games, but California?s inability to separate from Miami last year pushed the underdog?s record to 5-2 ATS overall. In all three previous games where the pointspread exceeded a touchdown, the underdog covered, a good sign for Boston College?s chances. In terms of totals, UNDER has been the result of the last two games, after OVER had won four straight. Interestingly, in the three lowest totaled Emerald Bowl games (46 or less), the underdog won both outright and ATS.
 

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Five bowl coaches you don't want to bet against

Five bowl coaches you don't want to bet against

Five bowl coaches you don't want to bet against

One of the golden rules of wagering bowl games is to consider the bowl histories of the head coaches. Some coaches regard a bowl and its preceding practices as a way to prepare for the following season while others put more emphasis into bowl preparation and have their teams more motivated than any other time during the year.



Here are five you should keep an eye on this postseason:



Urban Meyer (5-1 SU, 5-1 ATS in bowls)



Meyer is a remarkable 13-1 ATS (against the spread) at Florida versus AP top-10 opposition. His only loss came in the recent SEC championship when Bama knocked the Gators out of the BCS title game.



There is a tendency to bet against a disappointed or disinterested favorite in bowls, but don?t count on that with Florida.



The Gators should be able to cover the 11 points against Cincy.



Pete Carroll (6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS in bowls)



In his six postseason victories Carroll has covered the spread by an average of more than 16 points per game.



USC went only 8-4 SU (straight up) and 3-9 ATS this year after losing just nine games and winning 61 percent ATS from 2002-2008.



The Emerald Bowl, where USC is a 9-point favorite over Boston College, is the only game being played the night of Dec. 26.



Smart bowl players will usually take advantage of a coach like Carroll, a master recruiter who realizes his bowl will be the center of attention the day after Christmas.



Les Miles (5-2 SU, 4-2-1 ATS in bowls)



After going 0-2-1 ATS in bowls at Oklahoma State, Miles is 4-0 SU and ATS at LSU, covering by an average of a whopping 28 points per game.



It helps that LSU plays in the toughest conference in football. The Tigers upset ACC schools in 2005 and 2008 in blowout victories as underdogs.



LSU is a bowl underdog once again - 2? points to Penn State in the Capital One - though it faces Joe Paterno, another bowl coach I wouldn?t bet against.



This game has ?no play? written all over it.



Bobby Bowden (21-10-1 SU, 20-10-1* ATS in bowls)



It is the perfect send off: ?Saint Bobby? ends an illustrious, 44-season coaching career in the state of Florida at Jacksonville?s Gator Bowl against West Virginia, where he coached from 1970-1975.



Although Florida State has a winning percentage of only .605 since the start of the 2004 season, it is 5-0 ATS in bowl games during that time.



In 1982, Florida State began its current streak of 28 consecutive bowl games with a 19-point win over West Virginia in the Gator Bowl. The Noles are 3-point dogs this time around and you know they?re going to want to send Bobby out a winner.



Butch Davis (4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS in bowls)



Remember the bowl betting rule that did not apply to Florida: consider wagering against a disappointed or disinterested favorite in bowls? It does apply to Pittsburgh, who was defeated by Cincinnati in the final minute and lost its chance to play in a BCS game as the end result.



The Panthers will now play in the Meineke Car Care Bowl against a much-lesser opponent, North Carolina, as 2?-point favorites.



The Tar Heels and Coach Davis played at the same site a year ago, losing by only a single point to West Virginia but earning Davis? fifth bowl win ATS against zero losses.



Never go against a team in the postseason with the better defense in every phase, like North Carolina compared to Pittsburgh, especially if its coach is undefeated ATS in bowls.



Honorable Mention: Joe Paterno (23-11-1, 20-10*), Mike Riley (5-0, 4-1), Mark Richt (6-2, 5-3)



Besides the aforementioned eight, I?m sure I left off at least one or two others you would not want to face in a bowl game. Can you think of any other coaches, present or past?



*Pointspreads not available prior to the 1973 season; both Bowden (one bowl) and Paterno (five) coached in bowls games prior to 1973.
 

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Top Trends and Angles

Top Trends and Angles

Top Trends and Angles

CFB | (209) UTAH @ (210) CALIFORNIA | 12/23/2009 8:00 PM
Play ON UTAH using the money line in All games in games played on a grass field
The record is 19 Wins and 5 Losses for the last three seasons (+19.10 units)
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CFB | (253) CONNECTICUT @ (254) S CAROLINA | 01/02/2010 2:00 PM
Play UNDER CONNECTICUT on the first half total in Road games in games played on a grass field
The record is 0 Overs and 11 Unders for the last three seasons (+11.00 units)
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CFB | (223) UCLA @ (224) TEMPLE | 12/29/2009 4:30 PM
Play ON TEMPLE in the first half in All games as an underdog of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line
The record is 11 Wins and 0 Losses for the last three seasons (+11.00 units)
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CFB | (259) MICHIGAN ST @ (260) TEXAS TECH | 01/02/2010 9:00 PM
Play AGAINST MICHIGAN ST using the money line in Road games after playing a conference game
The record is 19 Wins and 46 Losses since 1992 (-47.75 units)
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CFB | (267) TEXAS @ (268) ALABAMA | 01/07/2010 8:10 PM
Play ON ALABAMA using the money line in All games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins
The record is 18 Wins and 3 Losses for the last three seasons (+16.25 units)
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CFB | (229) NAVY @ (230) MISSOURI | 12/31/2009 3:30 PM
Play AGAINST MISSOURI using the money line in All games when playing against a team with a winning record
The record is 4 Wins and 7 Losses for the last two seasons (-19.00 units)
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CFB | (239) TENNESSEE @ (240) VIRGINIA TECH | 12/31/2009 7:30 PM
Play AGAINST VIRGINIA TECH using the money line in All games after a bye week
The record is 17 Wins and 19 Losses since 1992 (-37.65 units)
 

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NCAA Football Game Picks
Central Florida vs. Rutgers
The Knights look to build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games as an underdog. Central Florida is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Knights favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Central Florida (+3). Here are all of this week's picks.

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 19
Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST (12/10)
Game 201-202: Wyoming vs. Fresno State
Dunkel Ratings: Wyoming 73.062; Fresno State 87.007
Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 14; 58
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 10 1/2; 55
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (-10 1/2); Over
Game 203-204: Central Florida vs. Rutgers
Dunkel Ratings: Central Florida 90.934; Rutgers 90.186
Dunkel Line: Central Florida by 1; 41
Vegas Line: Rutgers by 3; 44
Dunkel Pick: Central Florida (+3); Under
 

Lumi

LOKI
Forum Member
Aug 30, 2002
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58
In the shadows
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 20
Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST (12/10)
Game 205-206: Middle Tennessee State vs. Southern Mississippi
Dunkel Ratings: Middle Tennessee State 86.236; Southern Mississippi 85.738
Dunkel Line: Even; 54
Vegas Line: Southern Mississippi by 3 1/2; 58
Dunkel Pick: Middle Tennessee State (+3 1/2); Under
 
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