Looking at Futures

Lumi

LOKI
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Aug 30, 2002
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In the shadows
Looking at Futures


If there is one thing that bettors are always a little apprehensive about doing it?s tying up their hard earned cash on a bet that won?t come through for several months.

With that being said, gamblers will still run up to those windows to hold onto those tickets tighter than they hold onto their own children.

There aren?t too many betting shops that have put out season win totals for us to peruse. That just means we get to look at some BCS title futures.

I?ve never been one to take the ?chalk? for any future wager, but it?s hard not to put a little cash on the Gators at this point at just over 2/1.

You can?t help but love having a Heisman Trophy winner running your offense in Tim Tebow. And he?s going to be orchestrating the attack behind an offensive line that returns three starters with an average weight of 325.8 pounds per player. Florida also has a solid running game anchored by USC transfer Emmanuel Moody and Chris Rainey.

I?m sure some folks are wondering what the Gators will do without Percy Harvin, who left early for the NFL. But they?ll still have guys like Riley Cooper, Aaron Henderson and super frosh Frankie Hammond.

Florida also has the benefit of very winnable schedule. How winnable? They should be a double-digit favorite in every game this season. The Gators won?t have to face Alabama, Auburn or Ole Miss this year. Tennessee comes to Gainesville with Lane Kiffin at the helm, and I?m pretty sure Urban Meyer is going to school him hard about talking smack before you even coach a game in the SEC. The Gators do travel to LSU, but I?m not real big on Les Miles?s squad?even with the amount of talent coming back to Baton Rouge.

If people are backing Florida, then they?re more than likely touting the Trojans to win it all at 7/1. It?s been a fashionable pick for as long as I can remember. And it?s been an annual disappointment for bettors for just as long.

Pete Carroll has done a masterful job in recruit ever since he took over Southern Cal in 2001. He?s 88-15 during his eight years in Los Angeles, taking the Trojans to a BCS bowl game in the last seven.

The Men of Troy are returning all but two starters on an offense that averaged 37.5 points per game. The most glaring issue on offense is who will take over for Mark Sanchez at quarterback. It looks like that Aaron Corp is taking over the job. If he should falter, Carroll still has former Arkansas signal caller Mitch Mustain and highly touted freshman Matt Barkley are ready to take over.

The elephant sitting in the room for Southern California has to be what they can do on defense. After all, they?re returning just three starters from last year. But this is a program that is bringing in Top 5 or better recruiting classes every season. Carroll is very high on Chris Galippo to anchor the linebacking corps. Galippo was the top LB prospect in 2007 and now has a chance to prove the hype was real.

What could prove tough for Southern Cal is the early part of its schedule. The Trojans head to Columbus for a battle with Ohio State at the Horseshoe on Sept. 12?certainly a baptism by fire for a stop unit that is going to be largely untested.

Should the Trojans falter at any point during the season, they can almost certainly kiss their chances of a title goodbye. That?s really been a sticking point for USC over the years. In 2008, they lost at Oregon State after throttling Ohio State. The year before that, they were shocked by the Cardinal in the Coliseum. Southern Cal just seems to find a game to lose in a fairly lackluster conference. And I would put more value in a Florida team getting a loss in the SEC over a USC side that dropped a game against a scrub from the Pac-10 to make it to Pasadena.

As far as sleepers go, I?m banking on Penn State to make a run at 30/1. A lot has been made of the departure of all of the Nittany Lions? wide receivers. But there is a lot of talent taking over for PSU at the wide out position. Derek Moye, Brett Brackett and Graham Zug are all over six feet tall and have extensive knowledge of the HD offense.

Defensively, Joe Paterno will have just four starters coming back. However, the longest tenured coach in the Football Bowl Subdivision has been very good at moving players into new positions?specifically moving guys from linebacker to the secondary. That?ll be huge this season considering that all four starters from the secondary graduated.

Normally when you see a team rebuilding its last line of defense, you?d want to get away from them at the start of the season. But Penn State is great about lining up cupcakes to open its campaigns. 2009 will be no exception as the Nittany Lions will shore up their ranks against the likes of Akron, Syracuse and Temple. And in conference play, their toughest game (Ohio State, Nov. 7) is going to be in Happy Valley. They should easily pick up at least 10 wins and give great value on a futures bet.
 
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