I went 0-4, -1931 in baseball yesterday, so on my page I wrote some things that I felt I did wrong that led to that day. I figured I'd post them here as well. To get to my page to to the top of the page and click "Free Picks".
The best way to handle a terrible day is to try to get some kind of positive out of the day and look forward. Looking back at my plays, a few things are clear.
1) I bet on cold teams with no major incentive to turn things around. The Braves, Yankees and Angels are in playoff races, but none of those teams were playing their competitors for playoff spots. Additionally, all four teams (Marlins were the other) were showcasing starters who were marginal. Playing a struggling team when an ace is on the hill is often a good move because they are paid to be stoppers. Playing struggling teams with the likes of El Duque, Penny, Marquis and Lackey pitching is an entirely separate thing.
2) My underdogs had severe bullpen disadvantages. When you are betting favorites you probably have an inherent pitching or lineup advantage but with dogs usually the bullpen is the overlooked factor giving the dogs a good chance of winning. Both Florida and Anaheim came in with struggling bullpens. The Florida game would have likely been a loss anyway but Anaheim would have probably been a win with a completely healthy bullpen.
3) Don'[t risk more in one day than I am comfortable losing. I didn't expect an 0-4 day. But in this business you have to expect the unexpected. Given my recent play, and average amount of about $480 risked per play was not unreasonable. The problem is that it opened me up to the possibility of going back into the negative for the year and baseball season if I lost all four plays. In this case a CYA parlay of $50 or $100 would have likely been a good idea. We all know that CYA parlays are negative moves long term, but psychologically it would have been much easier to take yesterday's blow had I insured myself of staying in the black.
4) Take the lines into greater account when handicapping games. As I often do, I handicapped yesterday's plays before looking at the lines, then decided my bet amounts based on the lines offered. I still believe that looking at the lines first can cause a person to find false value. That said, it is obvious looking back that a Yankees team coming in losing 2 of 3 with El Duque on the mound is a terrible value on the road against anyone at -195, much less a hot team like Toronto. The Cubs are one of the hottest teams in baseball, yet I played against them at -137 with a team that had lost 2 straight and that was starting a pitcher with stiffness in his arm (though that report wasn't published before game time to my knowledge). The Marlins had lost 3 straight and were starting a struggling pitcher, yet I only got +125. The Angels had just lost a series to Kansas City, had a badly depleted bullpen, yet were still getting just +124. Had I looked at the lines before deciding to play these games, I would have likely not chosen any of them as exceptional value plays.
The best way to handle a terrible day is to try to get some kind of positive out of the day and look forward. Looking back at my plays, a few things are clear.
1) I bet on cold teams with no major incentive to turn things around. The Braves, Yankees and Angels are in playoff races, but none of those teams were playing their competitors for playoff spots. Additionally, all four teams (Marlins were the other) were showcasing starters who were marginal. Playing a struggling team when an ace is on the hill is often a good move because they are paid to be stoppers. Playing struggling teams with the likes of El Duque, Penny, Marquis and Lackey pitching is an entirely separate thing.
2) My underdogs had severe bullpen disadvantages. When you are betting favorites you probably have an inherent pitching or lineup advantage but with dogs usually the bullpen is the overlooked factor giving the dogs a good chance of winning. Both Florida and Anaheim came in with struggling bullpens. The Florida game would have likely been a loss anyway but Anaheim would have probably been a win with a completely healthy bullpen.
3) Don'[t risk more in one day than I am comfortable losing. I didn't expect an 0-4 day. But in this business you have to expect the unexpected. Given my recent play, and average amount of about $480 risked per play was not unreasonable. The problem is that it opened me up to the possibility of going back into the negative for the year and baseball season if I lost all four plays. In this case a CYA parlay of $50 or $100 would have likely been a good idea. We all know that CYA parlays are negative moves long term, but psychologically it would have been much easier to take yesterday's blow had I insured myself of staying in the black.
4) Take the lines into greater account when handicapping games. As I often do, I handicapped yesterday's plays before looking at the lines, then decided my bet amounts based on the lines offered. I still believe that looking at the lines first can cause a person to find false value. That said, it is obvious looking back that a Yankees team coming in losing 2 of 3 with El Duque on the mound is a terrible value on the road against anyone at -195, much less a hot team like Toronto. The Cubs are one of the hottest teams in baseball, yet I played against them at -137 with a team that had lost 2 straight and that was starting a pitcher with stiffness in his arm (though that report wasn't published before game time to my knowledge). The Marlins had lost 3 straight and were starting a struggling pitcher, yet I only got +125. The Angels had just lost a series to Kansas City, had a badly depleted bullpen, yet were still getting just +124. Had I looked at the lines before deciding to play these games, I would have likely not chosen any of them as exceptional value plays.
