Looking at testing this system out for a while

[MIPS]

if anyone has done this and can shed some light, please feel free.

I am going to start playing games that fit the following criteria.

i.e. Nebraska (unranked) beats RANKED Texas A&M (11th). Next game FADE the unranked team. These unranked teams are not consistent enough night in, night out and decide to SHOW up for big times and usually have a let down the next game.

Looked back the last few weeks and it was hitting at a good clip (example above, St Johns (unranked) killed Duke, next game out they did not cover vs rutgers. Wash St (unranked) beat Wash (Ranked) and the next game Wash St lost by 40 to Oregon.

Tmr, i really like this one regardless of this trend.


Oregon St (just beat ranked Wash) plays Wash St (who shot like 12-60 last night) @ oregon st. Oregon st had a guy go to the FT Line near 20 times (team shot 40 ft's)


So, you mean to tell me a team that JUST lost by 40 last night (Wash St.) is on the ROAD and favored by 3 to a team who just beat washington..

Wash st -3 is the PLAY HERE...... :00hour


input appreciated..

 

[hawkeye]

Go for it--many systems have been tried and most are flops--but some thing new is worth a try. If these systems worked Vegas woudl be broke. I have tried some--none worked--gl:toast:

 

[MIPS]

LOL good pt. I think it needs to be more fine tuned (i.e. if the unranked team beats a ranked team & their next opponent lost, then fade them next time out).

Oregon St (unranked) beat Wash (ranked). Next is Wash St (just lost) playing Oregon st (beat ranked team).

I agree with the Vegas thing but so many people will NOT take a Wash st tmr after losing by 40 and seeing oreg st beat a top 20 school. Public will not go for it.

 

[Smitty]

probably a good idea but, just like any other 'system', only use it as a good starting point; don't follow it blindly. :0003

 

[MIPS]

Agreed Smitty. Two fit the bill tmr.

Kentucky -1.5 over Fla (kentucky coming off a loss and UNRANKED FLA beat RANKED Vandy)

Wash St -3 @ Oreg St (Wash st lost by 40 to oregon and Unranked Oreg st beat Ranked Wash)


I like that wash st play before any of this talk

 

[Smitty]

i'm just going to play devil's advocate on those two particular plays, and i hope you don't get upset like a lot of people do when their plays are questioned.... i'm looking at the big picture... washington st has been a solid basketball team for a number of years now, while oregon st has been absolutely terrible. and despite thursday's results, taking washington st to 'only' win by 3 looks WAY too easy. in fact, according to sagarin, the cougars 'should' be laying 7 points in this matchup. i've found sagarin to be a decent predictor of the line, and when it's this far off, there is usually a reason. without looking any deeper into it (major injury for wash st?), it appears as though vegas is looking for wash st money.

and florida is actually ranked in the espn poll and they have been in or near the top-25 most of the year. i don't think the win over vandy 'shocked' anyone. and i wouldn't expect a big letdown from florida, as kentucky is a bigger game for the gators. that line is 'legit', as UK should be laying 2 at florida.

anyway, please take this as intended in the spirit of madjacks - just a couple guys trying to help each other win some money. :0008

 

[MIPS]

Smitty, ha, of course i do not take it personal. I love the feedback. Yes, the Florida one, i agree, isn't much of a stretch. I just want to track this system to see how it goes.

Now, Wash st is 1-4 on the road in the pac 10. Sure oregon st isnt all that but wash st coming off a 40 pt loss, i just think people will shy away from taking them. How often will you back a team that lost by 40 just the other night and is playing back 2 back on the road.

Winning on the road is tough and oregon st hasn't lost by over 6 at home in pac 10 play. They somehow play every game down to the wire in pac 10 play at home. I think the line is right.

im not playing kentucky tmr, just want to start tracking this so i have some data to go with it!

GL!

 

[MIPS]

also wash st was solid for a number of years under my boy bennett. They have a new coach now, i think that past stuff goes out the door. This year honestly, they aren't that good. They have nothing inside (all outside)

 

[prospector]

what about ...

play the RANKED team after a LOSS to an UNRANKED team?

i mean, what could be more motivating than that?

 

[Smitty]

also wash st was solid for a number of years under my boy bennett. They have a new coach now, i think that past stuff goes out the door.

oh, i absolutely agree. i was just referring to public perception of the two teams.

funny thing is... after all that... i may have talked myself into a small play on oregon state (ugh). well, it certainly wouldn't be the first game i ever lost.

 

[MIPS]

look at oregon st's home record. THey beat Wash & Zona. Went to the wire with USC and UCLA. That is impressive. Wash St is bad on the road, 1-4.

I think the line is spot on. Going with wash st

BOL!

 

[gsp]

Every way I capp this game comes up that Wash St can give up to 5.

 

[MIPS]

I like them in this spot. It is not like they are 7-1 in the pac 10. They have a bad road record and oregon st has not lost by more than 6 at home in pac 10 play and beat both Zona and Washington, nearly beat ucla.

 

[MIPS]

OF COURSE I second guessed myself, didnt play wash st and they covered nearly all game and won by 6.

Got KILLED on N'western, Furman and Toledo (WTF am i doing betting on them, followed some other cappers on a POS team, my idiotic mistake)

 

[Smitty]

nooooooooooooo after all that, you didn't play them? :scared

when it was down to 2 with about 18 seconds left, i thought i had a shot.

oh well. if pittsburgh wins tomorrow, that'll make up for it. i played them before the championship round. i really wish pouncey was playing though.

fwiw, i did enjoy the back-and-forth we had on this game. i think that's what this site should be all about and, sadly, it seems very rare.