looking for a contrarian point of view

KotysDad

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Total points scored prop for kickers:

Jason Elam (Denver)
O 113.5 -115
U 113.5 -115

Elam's scoring totals for the past 7 years (in which he was active for all 16 games) were 119, 119, 132, 109, 127, 116, 124 for an average of 120.8. 6 of the past 7 years have gone over a total of 113.5. OVER looks like a solid bet unless there is a good reason why the posted total is 113.5 while the last 7 years had an average of 120.8

John Hall (Jets)
O 106.5 -115
U 106.5 -115

Although not as many full seasons under his belt, his 4 full seasons with the Jets have produced point totals of 120, 120, 108, 104 with an average of 113 per year. 3 of the 4 years have gove OVER.

Sebastian Janikowski (Raiders)
O 113.5 -115
U 113.5 -115

Here is another one I dont understand. The last two season, SJ has yet to stay active for an entire 16 game schedule. Yet both seasons produced 112 and 111 points, respectively. If SJ can stay active for an entire season, is there any reason to believe he wont go OVER the posted total of 113.5??

Olindo Mare (Miami)
O 117.5 -115
U 117.5 -115

In his last 5 full seasons, Mare has produced 117, 99, 144, 117, 96 points for an average of 114.6 with all but one year going UNDER the posted total.

I only looked at previous years in which the kicker was active for all 16 regular season games. If you have reason to believe a kicker will not be active for all 16 games, then I can't see much sense in ever considering an OVER wager on any of these kickers.
 

Z-MAN

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I think Mare and Elam are good bets to go over. The dolphins offens will be better - thus scoring more points and mare is one of the best kickers palying - % wise. Elam should also go over with healthy WR's. Besides, I think they will be kicking more fg's this season IMHO.
 

Heyward

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Elam suffered a hamstring injury in warmups before the Monday night game so be careful. I think he was having an MRI done but I don't know the results. Hopefully, nothing serious.
 

KotysDad

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Thanks for the input fellows. I might just follow the trends for small amounts and not pay much attention til the last few weeks of the season.
 
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