ok ndnfan, here's how my partisan self sees this one. amato is one of the best around at getting a team ready for a bowl game, mainly from his experience at fsu. everyone at state knows how huge this game is for the program. as would be expected, amato's main recruiting turf is in florida, and to beat a name like notre dame on a new year's day game in florida would be a coup. state has spent about $800k in prep and travel money on this game. they rented the entire conference facility at the omni to use as an indoor private prep facility on game day. state's chancellor marye ann fox is a former u of texas head and a big sports supporter, and basicly has given amato a blank check. i hav a lot of respect for tyrone willingham, he grew up about 10 miles away from me. but i have to think that the irish won't have the kind of motivation that the wolfpack will bring to the table.
the game at a pk also fits my "vegas line vs power numbers" system that has been quite successful for me so far this bowl season, actually running 3-0 on sides and 6-0 on totals. i posted up the totals plays today in another thread. in this case, the power numbers i use make this game at irish -6. now, with the betting draw that the notre dame name has, you would think that the books could post at least that number and still get a fairly even flow of money on the game. to post the game at a pick invites irish money, and suggests to me that the house wants a stake in the wolfpack. i want to be on their side - i think they're smarter than me when it comes to picking a spread winner.
then again, these could just be the incoherent ramblings of a wishful wolfpacker. we shall see.
