Louisville ?

[gman2]

scott:

normally ill can see where youre coming from on a lot of your stuff and your opinions are usually pretty well-reasoned.

but youre smoked out as far as the louisville/washington game goes. i made a small action bet on washington and even posted that i felt they were the most underrated team out west, even as the 1-seed.

but they got their fuc.kin asses run off the court and were completely dominated by louisville. foul trouble plagued both teams and louisville had to sit some guys early in the half as well.

bottom line is that washington got waxed by louisville.
period.
i was surprised it happened. i was a believer in washington. but it is what it is --- a blowout.

even in the 2nd half, washington never truly made a run. any #1 seed should be able to make a run and go out fighting. they didnt.

 

[Sun Tzu]

Scott lives with Mr O'Roarke and Tattoo.

Doesnt matter what the reality is, whatever happened proves he is right.

 

[Scott4USC]

gman2

Thanks for compliment. I said Louisville played GREAT BASKETBALL against Washington. So I gave them credit. I said I can't give Louisville "FULL CREDIT" for beating Washington because 2 of the best players for Washington were in foul trouble. I would have liked to seen UL beat UW without Washington being in foul trouble.

UL was either losing or basically a tied game until the 2 best UW players sat down with 3 fouls. After they sat down, UL made their run. To top it all off, UL played great basketball and UW had major foul issues. Classic recipe for disaster! This easily could happen to any team. This is what I hate about hoops. Fouls can control a game or bad officiating. Fouls can sit players down or send them out of game. But its part of the game. I am not saying UW would have won if both their best players didn't get in foul trouble. Although I can't say UL would have won either. Prob. been a toss up. Hell, I have to give advantage to UW since UL only made their run when both UW starters went to bench.

Here is an example. UNC plays MSU on Saturday. What if Sean May and Felton both get 3 fouls in 1h and sit down etc. Should I give MSU full credit in beating UNC? NO. They were fortunate enough to beat UNC with their players having foul trouble. Fouls are part of the game but I can't be overly impressed when a team beats another team when their 2 star players were sitting on bench for most of the game.

 

[Sun Tzu]

Hmm UL's best player fouled out v West Virginia with what, 6 minutes left and down close to DD. How did that work out?

Of course you are still somehow impressed with UNC when they barely beat Nova with its only real inside player out for the whole game and a questionable call. Like I said that isnt analysis -it is distortion to justify what you have already decided.

Can Illinois win - sure. Should they win - sure. But your "rationale" isnt the reason you will be right if they do. More importantly, it doesnt matter. You cash or you dont.

 

[Bombs]

futures are a huge waste of money. the house hold on them is enormous. in 95+% of situations in tournament play, you can just start with 1 unit, and continually roll it on the money line and make more than you would have with your original future.

these combo futures are even more ridiculous, as you are just allowing the house to grind you down with their hold. if you are so right about a team, you should have no problem riding their wave picking the games.

the only time futures are useful is if you pick a large dog in a season situation where you can not just back individual game.

 

[pt1gard]

scott, not to sound whatever about the UW, but i doubt anyone knows them as well as I do, seen some of their kids play since 8th grade etc ...

anyhow, they got in foul trouble b/c they are fundamentally weak on D and lunge and have very little discipline overall (not really blaming Lorenzo either... this is their style, up tempo and stab and try to wear teams out with depth--I even asked their top ass. about it a couple mothns ago and he said "yeah sometimes you just have to grin and bear it, playing another way is out of their nature" and i agree ...

Nate is epitomy of that dow jones syndrome, and he was killing the UW on offense too 1-7 I think for game (not looking it up) ... I too thought the UW had a great chance going into that game but Cards were much better team and beat a good GT team (healthy) and what they did vs 18 WV treys amazes me even after all these years--to dismiss Cards in any way makes no sense ... I see no clear cut fave in any of these 4 teams ...

gl in your futures, seeing we have same teams hehe--I just dont bet Ks

 

[Kdogg21]

from Herb Gould....

LUTHER HEAD VS. FRANCISCO GARCIA: An outstanding shooter and passer, the athletic Garcia is one of the nation's top players. If healthy, Head will have a speed advantage, and he'll need it. Garcia is not at his best shooting off the dribble. He excels in catch-and-shoot situations, so fighting through screens will be key, but Head knows that drill. Garcia, who shoots a lot of threes, also is Louisville's assists leader, but he has had turnover issues. Defensively, Garcia's long arms and size make him a strong zone player. He leads the Cardinals in blocked shots and steals. Advantage: Louisville.


DERON WILLIAMS VS. LARRY O'BANNON: Williams will see time against Garcia, but the need for him to avoid foul trouble makes this matchup more likely. And O'Bannon, whose blossoming is a key to Louisville's Final Four ride, also has become a dangerous scoring threat. An effective penetrator, he is adept at drawing contact, which will require Williams to make good defensive decisions. O'Bannon can score around the basket but is not a good rebounder. Advantage: Illinois.

DEE BROWN VS. TAQUAN DEAN: At 6-3, Dean is not small, but he is the smallest of Louisville's three guards, so Brown makes the most sense here. Although Garcia and O'Bannon are considered more dangerous offensively, Dean, who leads Louisville in three-point shooting, has good range but is a spot-up shooter. Brown will need to stay up on him and could take advantage of turnover opportunities if Dean puts the ball on the floor. An excellent perimeter defender, he'll be a key to Louisville's zone. Advantage: Illinois.

 

[Kdogg21]

ROGER POWELL VS. ELLIS MYLES: For all the attention the perimeter players are getting, this might be where the game is decided. Powell will need to work hard -- and work well -- in the paint against a player whose strengths are very similar. A slight size advantage goes to Myles, but that's often the case for Powell, who compensates with athleticism and muscle. Powell will have to work exceptionally hard for his putbacks. Advantage: Even.


JAMES AUGUSTINE VS. JUAN PALACIOS: Louisville's 6-8 freshman is a rapidly developing bundle of raw talent who can step outside to shoot and will drive occasionally. Palacios, a native of Colombia who excelled at soccer, has good instincts but still is learning footwork and positioning. If Augustine can school him early, the psychological factor could come into play. That's also true, though, for Augustine, who's coming off a tough game against Arizona's Channing Frye. Advantage: Illinois.


BENCH: Both teams are thin. Beyond Jack Ingram (left), who has grown into his role, Bruce Weber only goes to his bench when necessary, and Louisville's situation isn't a whole lot better. Otis George (right) fills a similar role to Ingram, but soreness from stress fracture in his right foot remains a serious concern. If 7-2 Nick Smith, who has become a non-factor lately, were to re-emerge and make some shots, he could give Illinois a boost. But that possibility seems remote at this point. Advantage: Even.







COACHING: Weber might have been outcoached by Ohio State's Thad Matta, but he bounced back against Arizona's Lute Olson in both tactics and poise. Rick Pitino is one of the best, but his personnel won't allow for any rabbits out of the hat. Weber will be well-prepared and will make sure his mature team leaves it all on the court. Advantage: Even.

 

[Kdogg21]

INTANGIBLES: Louisville, which peaked at the right time, belongs here, and Pitino will make sure the Cardinals show that. But Illinois has been on a mission all year to prove it really is No. 1 -- to North Carolina backers as well as the 1989 Flying Illini. Illinois is a tough, veteran team with a coach who's so grounded and sound that he renders any concerns about his experience insignificant. Illinois won't have the overwhelming home-crowd advantage it had last week, but it will have more fans than any team in this Final Four. If Illinois knocks down shots, it will play on Monday night. Advantage: Illinois.

 

[volfan]

"Here is an example. UNC plays MSU on Saturday. What if Sean May and Felton both get 3 fouls in 1h and sit down etc. Should I give MSU full credit in beating UNC? NO. They were fortunate enough to beat UNC with their players having foul trouble. Fouls are part of the game but I can't be overly impressed when a team beats another team when their 2 star players were sitting on bench for most of the game."


Only problem I see with this is how do you not credit to MSU for getting them in foul trouble? It is part of the game and game plan. Should not take away from teams for playing hard, doesn't mean they are better but are better prepared.

 

[Waldo]

Holy Smokes!

Scott, who has often defended the ridiculous, is getting hammered here for defending a play on the #1 team in the country, who lost 1 game all season and is laying a massive 3 points.

Scott, apparently Illinois doesn't have a chance in this game, they need to be getting 3 or 4.

Sounds like you guys are just arguing to argue. There is no way to rationalize that this is that bad of a play.

Bottom line, Illinois plays Monday night.

 

[volfan]

WOW, thanks for clearing all this up Waldo. :hail :jerkit: :mj11:

 

[Scott4USC]

volfan

Only problem I see with this is how do you not credit to MSU for getting them in foul trouble? It is part of the game and game plan. Should not take away from teams for playing hard, doesn't mean they are better but are better prepared.

I said in my post you some credit goes to opposing team and some goes to maybe bad officiating. But that doesn't matter. My point was you can't give a team "FULL CREDIT" for beating another team if their 2 star players were not playing. Not just 1 star player, 2 star players were out for UW. I said UL played great against UW and they beat them. Congrats to UL. I would have been MORE impressed if UL beat Washington without 2 of Washingtons best players in foul trouble. Fouls are part of the game, but that was one of the major reasons why UL beat UW.

UL still might been able to beat UW with UW 2 best players playing, and if they did that, I would be MORE IMPRESSED!

pt1gard

Doesn't matter if you help coach UW. 2 of Washingtons best players were in foul trouble. ENOUGH SAID! When UW played AZ they never had their 2 best players in foul trouble. In fact, I don't remember ALL YEAR where UW had their 2 best players in foul trouble. Even if there are examples, doesn't change my argument. Unless you are trying to argue UW doesn't care if their 2 best players get in foul trouble?

If UL beat UW without Washington having foul issues (FOR WHATEVER REASON) I would be more impressed with UL and more confident in UL beating or challenging Illinois. I am not that impressed with UL and I don't see them winning on Sat. I have explained why I am not overly impressed with them.

 

[Waldo]

I'm not the jagoff arguing back and forth how the best team in the country has no chance to win tomorrow.

Is L'ville a play? Maybe but its pretty assinine to think Illinois is that bad of a play.

 

[Marra]

From the AP

Taking advantage of Pitino's instruction to penetrate, then kick the ball out, Garcia and Dean hit five 3-pointers apiece. The Cardinals (32-4) finished with 11 total, and improved to 24-1 this season when they make at least seven from long range.

"You wonder what it would've been like if they hadn't been making all the 3s," Huskies coach Lorenzo Romar said. "But they've won 31 other times this year. I'm sure there are 31 other teams who have said that."

The Cardinals moved on to Saturday's regional final against West Virginia, which beat Bobby Knight and Texas Tech 65-60.

This was billed as a matchup between Washington (29-5), the team trying to prove it really did deserve a top seed, and Louisville, the team that had lost only once since Jan. 8 and couldn't believe it was only a No. 4.

Garcia, who finished with 23 points, made three 3-pointers during a 14-0 run in the first half that helped Louisville to a 47-35 lead at the break.

The Cardinals moved on to Saturday's regional final against either Bobby Knight and Texas Tech or West Virginia, who played later Thursday.

Meanwhile, Washington's top two scorers, Nate Robinson and Tre Simmons, struggled to defend against Pitino's inside-outside offense and wound up languishing on the bench with three fouls for a big chunk of the first half.

In Leyman's terms...Louisville was the better team.

 

[pt1gard]

scott,

If you truly knew anything about basketball strategy and what it takes to win you wouldn't be second guessed all the time by so many that do ... What you fail to grasp is the UW did get in foul trouble often this year (esp. Nate) b/c they don't play good defense and that achilles was exposed by Pitino (every housewife in Seattle knows the Huskies were bad defenders) ... And no i dont coach the UW, but i prob have seen them and studied them a few more times than you ...

I'm curious, how good do you think Nate really is? Bobby Jones, Brandon Roy, Tre, Nate, Will Conroy and Jamal Williams, IMHO rank pretty close in that order as far as this year--Nate was better in 2003-04, but I'm sure you know that.

Do you also know that after Juliis Hodge handcuffed Nate 2/11, he shot: 4/12; 2/5; 3/10; 4/12; 2/9 in his next 5 games? Don't mistake your top scorers for your best players in hoops. Don't mistake flash for substance.

 

[Scott4USC]

pt1gard

If you truly knew anything about basketball strategy and what it takes to win you wouldn't be second guessed all the time by so many that do ...

All I care about is picking winners. You can choose to go with me, fade me, ignore me, whatever. I use the criteria I see fit and I have been pretty successful doing what I am doing. I am happy with my results. I will even more happy if UNC or Illinois wins it all, like I predict!

You claim to know so much about basketball, but I have read numerous posts from you stating basketball is so hard to handicap. Well then what good does it do to be an "expert" in hoops strategy? I do what I do because it works. Hell I would flip a coin if it resulted in winners.

It all boils down to me having having my opinions and you or anyone else having their opinion. I always explain why and where I stand. Sometimes people feel threatened when I express my opinion. Maybe I accidently have an arrogant writing style. Who knows. Doesn't matter. I am here to talk about hoops, not here to determine who are coaches or who has more strategy knowledge.


As for UW and their 2 players in foul trouble. People here are making this into a huge issue. I will say it again. I WOULD RESPECT LOUISVILLE MORE IF THEY HAD BEATEN WASHINGTON WITHOUT WASHINGTON HAVING THEIR 2 BEST PLAYERS IN FOUL TROUBLE. UL PLAYED GREAT BASKETBALL AGAINST WASHINGTON. CONGRATS TO UL. I WOULD HAVE LIKED TO HAVE SEEN UL BEAT WASHINGTON WITHOUT FOULS BEING A MAJOR ISSUE! SAME WOULD GO IF UW BEAT UL AND GARCIA AND DEAN HAVING FOUL TROUBLE. I WOULDN"T GIVE UW FULL CREDIT! YES I KNOW FOULS ARE PART OF THE GAME BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN I HAVE TO WORSHIP A TEAM WHO BEATS A TEAM WHO RAN INTO MAJOR FOUL TROUBLE! I WISHED UL COULD HAVE BEATEN A FULL UW SQUAD! THEN I MIGHT HEDGE MY ILLINOIS FUTURE BET! RIGHT NOW I DO NOT RESPECT UL ENOUGH TO POSE A THREAT TO ILLINOIS!

I would make Illinois a decent wager (not a very large wager) but I already have enough on them to win it all. Pointless to wager more.

 

[Sun Tzu]

Scott could you be a bigger ass? And yet you claim to have no ego?

 

[pt1gard]

what exactly works for you in hoops? I'm kinda lost there?

We both had Illini advance thru luck (homecourt alone got them thru, let alone 8 pts in a minute and one horrible noncall/foul on Frye); and NC was on ropes big time twice ... yeah Ill be happy if either wins Title (at huge odds I was lucky to find), but for you to take 6 teams (like me taking 4) is guesswork ... Don't take too much credit, it might work out like Red Sox winning 4 straight vs Yankees, but was that great capping or luck? Being humble at times never hurts.

I have the same 2 teams as you but I will be the first to say it will be lotsa good fortune if either wins (NC and Ill) not my friggin' coaching or analysis ability or posting War and Peace threads.

I gonna relink this past post b/c I doubt many ever saw it at end of cfball season, including you, b/c I posted day after usc/ou game and people stopped going in the room ...

take a look and maybe do some soul searching
gl to us
gregg

Link to College Fball comments regarding scottusc, mine's at bottom of thread:

http://madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?t=174050&highlight=scott

 

[Smitty]

pt1gard, i tip my hat to you, sir. very eloquent and poignant post.