Lsu-ou ????

Box and one

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Back in late August I made 3 prop bets on who I thought would make the BCS game.I put just one * box on each team.
Well I almost hit 2 of the 3.


#S-6479548
08/31/2003 2:19 pm -$ Placed Straight Bet to win $ Odds To Win 2004 Sugar Bowl (B.C.S Championship Game)(Updated 12/01)(All Bets Are Action) USC +1500
#S-6479545
08/31/2003 2:18 pm -$ Placed Straight Bet to win $ Odds To Win 2004 Sugar Bowl (B.C.S Championship Game)(Updated 12/01)(All Bets Are Action) Virginia Tech +1500
#S-6479542
08/31/2003 2:18 pm -$ Placed Straight Bet to win $ Odds To Win 2004 Sugar Bowl (B.C.S Championship Game)(Updated 12/01)(All Bets Are Action) LSU +4000

I think I will play OU and split the pot.LSU at +4000 is a nice payoff even when I go the other way.If I think OU will win should I bet 60-40?Or just take the 50-50 play.
Just asking advice on what I should do.I think just split the play down the middle and not be greedy.Right??
 

JCoverS

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Hedge

Hedge

Hey Box,

Hedging is always a gut call for me, but I always buy some back to insure a profit when I have the chance. I think it's smart to do so, no matter how hard it is to break that gambler tendency to "let it ride". Generally, I will buy back the other side at either 1/3, 1/4, or 1/5 of the total I stand to win. In your case I would take whatever your 1 box is worth and multiply it by 4000. That will tell me how much I stand to gain if the wager wins. Now depending on how confident I was or how much of a gamble I wanted to take, I would play the other side 1/3, 1/4, or 1/5 of that total that I stand to gain. I have never bought back half like you are suggesting, I guess I just like the extra risk involved.

Now that is easy when you are playing spreads, however, in your case we have a complicating factor that you will need to play OU on the ML, with heavy juice. This actually makes this hedge a little less cut and dry for me to decipher. You are going to have to risk alot, with little gain on this hedge. HMMMM, what is OU ML? I need to think about this one some more. If OU was a dog here you would be in great position to hedge back with minimal loss and maximum gain.

Sorry, Box, thought I would be able to help really easy, but now that I think about it this one is a little sticky. Maybe someone else has a better cut and dry formula for this situation.

Let me think some more and I will post again.

-JC
 

JCoverS

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Sorry, it's late, just re-read my post. Major correction: That should read 4000 added to whatever your original stake was, not multiplied. Ex. if 1 box was 100, then you stand to get back 4100. Hopefully this clarifies what I was trying to say.

-JC
 

Box and one

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covers,I wish a box was 100.Substract 75 from that.But its still a nice payoff...
Bad...but I think OU wins.If I thought LSU was going to win,I would just let it ride.I get nada if OU wins.
thanks
 

CaPPiNg TiGeRz

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Very nice calls there box , as usual. Smart play ofcourse is to hedge it and if it were my call i would call 50/50. I really love the Tigerz today but ofcourse i have a very biased opinion :D :shrug: . Think at the least its a close ball game late and LSU can hold the number. also like the tigerz for a defensive TD today ;) . As always good luck box , and thanks again for all the plays and info on the college hoops scene.
 

Box and one

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Capping Tiger,I think thats what I'll do.Go 50-50
I played LSU early on because of their schedule.They played only Bama and Miss on the road.All their tough games were at home.Florida,Auburn and Georgia.
Admit I got lucky with them.And the hell with USC playing in the Sugar Bowl. They were only +1500 odds.ha
And if I hedge the play I hope the hell OU wins.I'll be kicking myself in the ass.
I feel bad about giving up on a team that I liked.LSU wasn't in anyone's top 10 list.Steele and Fiest and the others had OU,Ohio St,Auburn,Texas,etc.
I really thought Vir Tech was the best bet.They had Miami at home and only one tough road game in Pitt.Rutgers,WV[who turned out better] Temple and UVA were all rd games that I thought they would handle.

USC was even easier I thought. One tough rd game.Auburn.Other then that Cal Zona St,ND,Wash St and Zona.There homes games was even easier.Never thought they would stumble at Cal.

There was no great thinking going into these plays.It took me 10 minuts to look at the schedules and make the plays.Most of it was luck.And I need some luck lately the way my b-ball picks have been going..Take care
 

Okie

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Tiger-How Good Is LSU

Tiger-How Good Is LSU

I have a bunch of thoughts on the Sooners, but don't know much about LSU! I have always thought that Saban was a defensive coach! Do they have much offense?

If they are any good they should beat this OU team straight up!

Sooners have no rushing attack! One Dimensional!

Nobody played any defense in the B12!

Your thoughts are appreciated!

OB
 

Box and one

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Okie,this was a Aug 10th preview of OU.Might be outdated.Not sure where I stole it from.I had it stored someplace in my computer.Not even sure who wrote and how accurate it is

In 2002, Oklahoma finished 12-2, won the Rose Bowl over Washington State, finishing just ahead of us in the final polls. They begin the year ranked #1 by ESPN & USA Today, and are loaded at just about every position. Still, there's a good reason why Texas plays Rice, as they say, and OU is not guaranteed a berth in the MNC.

Coaching: OU has as it's head coach a guy that has a 43-9 record in Norman, and won the whole thing in only his 2nd year. Never mind the fact he lost two games last year to team's he should have beaten, Stoops is the real-deal.

His coaches are the real deal, too. Venables and Mike Stoops will eventually get top jobs, and Cale Gundy, Bobby Jack Wright, and Chuck Long are no slouches, either. OU is strong at the top, and that strength works it's way down to the humblest walk-on. These guys are excellent teachers of the game, outstanding motivators, and glue it all together by being workaholics, often putting in 20-hour days during football season, and routinely putting in 16-hour days the rest of the year.

Offense:
OU loses 3,500 yards from a year ago, about 2/3 of their total offense. The Sooners ended the year ranked #4 in the Big-12 in total offense and rushing offense, but lose 2,225 yards in Quentin Griffin alone. They also lose 116 catches and 12 TD's with the departure of Trent Smith, Curtis Fagan, and Savage.

The main question concerns OU's quarterback situation. If Sr. Jason White is healthy, he can make the Sooner attack go. As OU's starter, he went down in the 2nd game last year. He is backed by Soph's. Paul Thompson and Brent Rawls, and redshirt Noah Allen.

The Sooners can probably go as far as White takes them. If he goes down again, the offense becomes extremely average.

As far as the Sooners rushing game, Kejuan Jones had 647 yards and 14 TD's as a fish, spelling Griffin and doing quite well. As a starter, he should get twice the yardage, playing behind a stout offensive line, led by Jr. tackles, Jamaal Brown and Wes Sims, and center Vince Carter, all candidates for Big-12 honors. OU will have to replace their guards, and can choose from several candidates, none of which are upperclassmen.

Catching the ball will be Jr. wideouts Will Peoples (39 catches, 571 yards, 1 TD) and Mark Clayton (26-416-5), but they've got other options. Jr. Brandon Jones (7-117-3) and Soph. Travis Wilson (5-50-1) have ability.

Replacing Smith at tight end may be hardest of all. The Sooners have a grab-bag of candidates, all with some experience, and led by Sr. Lance Donley (8 catches, 27 yards). They also have Jr. James Moses (2-27), and Soph. Chris Chester (2-25-1). Transfer Willie Roberts has TE size, and probably shoots to the head of this class.

Is OU the team that ran the football with ease against us and Colorado, or the one that lost -23 yards against 'Bama, and struggled against S. Florida, Mizzou, and Okie State? Those are questions that will have to be answered, because the guess here is that OU will not win another NC solely on the strength of White's arm.

Defense:
OU returns 17 of their top 20 tacklers from a defense that ranked #2 in the Big-12, 2nd against the run. The throw a variety of stunts and blitzes at opposing offenses, but it's typical OU defense: Fast, sure tacklers. OU only starts 5 seniors, but a lot of guys play, because a lot of their guys are extremely good. It's about that simple.

The defense is led by it's linebacking corps of seniors: Teddy Lehman, Pasha Jackson, and Lance Mitchell. The trio had 10 sacks combined, and were in opposing backfields about as often as opposing quarterbacks, compiling over 30 tackles for loss, and a half-dozen forced fumbles. Lehman and Mitchell are on several award-watch lists already.

The line is much like ours, deeper at tackle, but not bereft of talent outside. The Sooners basically rotated 7 players last year, and only lose one starter (Jimmy Wilkerson), although he will be hard to replace. Jr. Tommy Harris is their top awards candidate, and it's not because of great stats. OU's defense spreads itself out well, has good pursuit, and clogs the middle about as good as anyone.

Sr. Kory Klein, and Jrs. Lynn McGruder and Dusty Dvoracek are all experienced hands, and contribute in a big way, with a combined 15 tackles for loss and 6 sacks. Jrs. Dan Cody and Jonathan Jackson line up outside, and combined for 11 tackles for loss and 7 sacks.

The secondary has three award-watch candidates, in Jr. Antonio Perkins (3 picks, 10 passes defensed), and Srs. Brandon Everage (6 picks, 15 passes defensed) and Derrick Strait (6 ints., 13 passes defensed). A lot of freshmen played last year, so OU does a good job of getting their good athletes on the field and ready in the event of injury. Sr. Brandon Shelby is very active, as evidenced by his 3 sacks last year. Brodney Pool, Eric Bassey, and Jowahn Poteat are all Sophs., but played a great deal in '02.

Special Teams:
The Sooners have one of the best punt returners around, in Perkins (26 returns, for 391 yards, 2 TD's). Perkins also returns kicks, but he doesn't have to return many, due to OU's stingy defense.

Carrollton Soph. Trey DiCarlo hit on 16 of 22 field goals last year, and 60 of 61 PAT's. Blake Ferguson only averages 38.5 yards per punt. Sooner coverage teams are exceptional, and they blocked two punts for TD's last year.

OU ranked #1 in the conference in turnover margin last year; a big part of Sooner excellence. Their defense forced 20 fumbles, and they led the conference in interceptions.

Schedule:
OU has an upgraded schedule, that includes road games at Bama, and home games against Fresno State and UCLA. Their conference road schedule is easy, with the exception of the game in Boulder, and they get Mizzou and Okie State in Norman.

Prediction:
OU has to avoid the OSU bug, win tough ones in Tuscaloosa and Boulder, and a dogfight in Dallas. Based on defense alone, the Sooners will win in double-digits. But, if they get help from a healthy White, they will be in the NC chase, and a whole lot of folks will be singing "Boomer Sooner" a bunch before the 2003-2004 season goes in the books.
 

Okie

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Box

Box

Thanks for the input!

The last paragraph sums up my feeling on the Sooners!

Avoid the upset bug against OSU (we are not talking Ohio State Here) Oklahoma State is a Basketball School, the football series record betweeen these two is like OU 100 OSU 2.

Bama has a coach for seven weeks prior to the game and gave the Sooners all they wanted.

Texas-Spare Me- They got hammered by Arky at Austin and WSU. Brown needs to play outside the state of Texas one in a while.

Colorado was terrible but took the Sooners to the wire.

If I thought LSU was in USC's class; This game would be a large moneyline bet for me.
 
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