mac notes: week three .....

gman2

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parity and injuries should lead to some crazy stuff in the mac the next few weeks.

northwestern/emichigan
it will be like looking in the mirror for these two. genyk spent 12 years at northwestern before taking the job at eastern michigan. formations and offensive philosophy are nearly identical. while some teams are jekly and hyde from week to week, emich has an amazing ability to be jekyl and hyde within the same game. jones is one of the most electric players in the conference at qb for emu, but he's young and erratic sometimes (not to mention trying to play through a nagging shoulder injury). right now the emu defense is awful. northwestern looks to be in a spot to 'get well' after an embarrassing loss, but emu is capable of putting a major scare into them .... or laying down and losing 42-14.

kent state/miami
very few teams are able to fu.ck up a good thing like kent state can. in the first two weeks, kent has had the ball inside the opponents 5 yards line three times and come away with zero points (goal line fumble and two FG misses from essentially extra point distance). they also fumbled in overtime against army when they had all the momentum and a good chance to win outright. one concern is that the coaching staff looked scared with their play calling against army. they have terrific receivers on the perimeter but for some reason refused to let edelman take chances down the field last week. to be fair, kent self-destructed and had 6 turnovers against minny in week one but theyre not going to beat miami trying to put edelman in the shotgun and run quarterback draws on 1/10 and 2/8 all game. martin cant change his stripes overnight as a head coach. his strength is his aggressiveness as an offensive coach. miami is very beatable this year, but kent has taken it on the chin in this series. redhawks coming off an OT game where they finally showed some life offensively in the 2h.

ball state/purdue
could be a huge letdown game for ball state. they were on the brink of a breakthrough win for their program against indy at home last week but couldnt hold on to a 23-7 halftime lead and lost 24-23. lynch had 200+ yards passing at halftime but bsu did nothing in the second half (5 drives in the second half -- 9 plays, 4 plays, 3 plays, 3 plays, 3 plays). purdue's defense has given up a lot of pts and yds through two weeks, but ball state is playing b2b gms against big 10 teams and was dismal on the road last year.

bowling green/fiu
offensive philosophy has done a 180 for bowling green this year, primarily because of personnel. falcons still have a potent offense but their strength is in the running game. that wasnt the case for the last 3 or 4 years. but with turner at qb and barnes in a 'slash' role, they are among the best in the country through two weeks on the ground. a cursory glance at their scores might lead many to think their defense is atrocious but thats really not the case. their special teams are absolutely killing them. they were bad last year. theyre worse this year. already through two weeks, they have missed two extra points, had two punts blocked and returned for touchdowns, and also had a kickoff returned for a touchdown against them. on paper this looks like an easy win. but mac teams were never good when they traveled down to central florida when ucf was part of the conference. if the falcons treat this as a vacation, they could find themselves in a ballgame. you get the sense this is either a 14+ point bowling green win ... or an outright loss. the 1st quarter of this game will tell the story.
 

gman2

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cmich/akron
spot is tailor-made for a zips clunker but cmich qb situation makes this unplayable. its just too tough to back a freshman (lefevour) against a senior (getsy). not saying its always that cut and dry, but im still taking the stance that cmich is going to take their lumps early this year but be a very live dog later in the season when they start to develop some cohesiveness on offense. has to be noted that akron lost outright at ball state last year and struggled with buffalo away from home as well. so akron as a road chalk isnt anything to get excited about. chips won outright as a DD dog in the rubber bowl last year and sneed had a big game. it would be a big surprise if either team won this game by more than a touchdown though. its certainly the most evenly-matched mac game of the week and the line says as much

wmich/virginia
times have definitely changed because last year wmich was a 3 TD+ underdog when they played virginia. broncos have definitely improved, most notably in their overall attitude. they feel like they can win any game they play and thats a tribute to cubit and his staff. but they still have a lot of question marks. even though they upset toledo last week (31-10), they still were outgained in yardage and allowed 100+ on the ground. rockets made some critical mistakes (namely an 80+ yd INT for a TD when toledo was driving for the go-ahead score). peregrin was ok filling in for cubit last week but wmich needs cubit in the lineup if theyre going to have any shot this weekend against an acc team.
 
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Carl Spackler

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Hey Falcon...quit screwing around and get to your board meeting.
 
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Carl Spackler

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I think the idea is to use the analysis in order to help make your own picks.
 

bjfinste

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Any thoughts on the Rockets in the Bowl Made of Glass? At first glance that line appear to be suspiciously, but admittedly my knowledge of the the two teams is weak at best.
 

gman2

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bj -
if there were immutable laws of betting mac football, one would have to involve toledo and the glass bowl. whenever you consider going anti-toledo at home, you better have a damn good reason and it better be with an offense that can match them point for point because they can put up points in a hurry in that stadium. 34-2 SU in the glass bowl L36 speaks for itself. cochran has shown that he gets the time, he can be very effective (18/30 vs. wmu, 39/49 vs. iowa state). the offensive line broke down last week and cochran took 4 sacks and threw 2 INTs (one of which swung the game and was returned 80+ for a TD when toledo was driving for the go-ahead score). much respect for mangino and what hes doing at kansas. jayhawks will be well prepared. their defensive philosophy is sound, though toledo will challenge them with a wide array of screens. obviously ku prides themselves on defense but its very rare that you ever see a toledo home game with a total < 50.
 

BGFalcon

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I'm playing Amstutz +13.5 lbs. over Mangino for a dime. There will be a weigh-in at half-time. It won't be pretty.

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Carl Spackler

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That is a great bet, Falcon, considering that Amstutz had his Thursday evening press conference live from Tony Packo's.
 
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Carl Spackler

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I like the thinking, G. I like the Rockets at the Bowl tonight. I also have a play on Toledo over 26 as a team total. That can be found at a certain sportsbook that begins with "G" ends in "K" and rhymes with "week".
 

gman2

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I'm playing Amstutz +13.5 lbs. over Mangino for a dime. There will be a weigh-in at half-time. It won't be pretty.

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seeing the pictures side by side is damn funny. im not sure there are any coaches in the country that can come close to matching the collective girth of this combo. and lmao at spack's packos comment.
 

spang

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Tough card saturday, but I find myself liking one total play. It's always a risky proposition to play under in the MAC but I like the Zips/Chipps to stay under the 47.

I base this on the fact that CMU should protect Lefevour with a limited playbook that features Sneed, Sneed and more Sneed. I think that the Zips D is much better than I initially estimated, and should be able to keep Ontario somewhat contained and avoid the quick strike big play.

I also look for the Zips to make an earnest attempt to get their own rushing attack going and keep the clock running all day long.

BTW: did any of you guys catch Terry Pluto's response to the laughable comments from Chuck Amato suggesting that Akron won because the Zips used "academic non- qualifiers" ? What a jack ass. I'm really happy that the Zips drove a big nail in this clowns coffin, cause he's toast after this year.

Here is a link to Pluto's column, its a good one.


http://www.ohio.com/mld/ohio/sports/columnists/terry_pluto/15506458.htm.
 

gman2

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spang-
ive always felt that terry pluto is among the best sportswriters in the country. his books are terrific and i always make it a point to read his view from pluto every sunday in the abj. i actually did see that article re: ncstate earlier this week. i found it hilarious that amato was more or less b1tching about akron having non-qualifiers. almost laughable.
 

LonghornMM

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gman, I always look forward to reading your analysis. Others, myself included, here on MJ would really like to see your outright picks on the MAC games. Don't be bashful. Let us know what your strong plays are!
 
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