As I write this analysis of the MAC, I feel strangely connected to those oft ignored small schools. Regardles of this newfound comraderie, the MAC has still got several up on me...
The MAC has taken great strides and has shown it can compete with almost all of the "big boys" on the division I-A playing field. Last year, MAC schools tumbled rivals from the Big Ten, the SEC, the Big East, and C-USA. Though not as "deep" as the big conferences, the MACs top talent (Marshall, Toledo, BGSU, and newcomer UCF) can play with all but the very best teams in college football today.
That said, what does this year hold for the MAC? Well, as usual, a wide array of games against strong OOC foes (Michigan, Purdue, VTech, and more...). What looks to be a great battle for first in the East, and two teams ascending in the West to challenge a rebuilding Toledo team. The MAC is a conference on the rise and it will likely make some big waves this fall. Expect at least one upset of a BigTen team (likely more) and a great game when Marshall topples the highly regarded VTech in week 4. (I realize this may be a long shot as it is only Marshalls second game, but if their defense can step up, VTech will not shut down Byron Leftwich.)
With all of the fun OOC, it is easy to avoid thinking about the conference race. But all things considered, the only MAC team that is guaranteed a place in December Football is the one that wins the conference. The race in the east looks to be wild with Marshall as a strong favorite but with newcomer UCF and Miami also having a legitimate shot at the crown. The west pits last year's champion Toledo against an up-and-coming Bowling Green team that should have enough to get by the rockets this year.
Conference Analysis:
In the East, Marshall is the heavy favorite. QB Byron Leftwich completed nearly 70% of his passes last year and racked up 38 TDs to only 7 picks. The high-powered Herd offense carried the weight for a defense that was slightly sub-par. The lack of D wasn't quite as troublesome against other MAC foes (23 ppg), as the Herd usually scored enough to compensate. But in two OOC games against quality opponents the Herd surrendered 110 points (Florida 49, ECU 61). That doesn't bode well when facing any high powered offense and gives teams like UCF and Miami a fighting chance when they face the Herd this season. If either of these two teams can manage to contain Leftwich, or at least hold the Herd to 35 points or so, they should have a great shot at the upset.
In the lower half of the conference, Akron, Ohio, and Kent, will battle for respectability. Each team has the talent to post a winning season and all have something to prove this year. Akron will need to shore up a defense that allowed nearly 33 PPG last year. Ohio looks to rebound from an aberration of a season (1-11) after a solid 7-5 mark in 2000. And finally Kent has one of the roughest schedules in the East facing Ohio State, Marshall, and Miami all away from the friendly confines of Dix Stadium. I realize I have yet to mention Buffalo, but they again look to regain sole possession of the MAC cellar with an Ohio rebound from last season.
And on to the West...
The division that has been dominated by Toledo as of late looks like it is up in the air for 2002. Bowling Green is the heir-apparent and should have enough to get by a rebuilding Toledo club (replacing 11 starters including the entire D-Line.) Toledo does have the goods to challenge, but I don't think this is their year. If the BGSU running game can come around, they should have no problem repeating or improving on an 8-3 performance this year and locking up the West division title.
The middle of the pack in the west is lead by Northern Illinois and the Ball State Cardinals. Either could have a solid year and challenge for the top spot. Both teams are led by returning 1,000 yard rushers (Marcus Merriweather - BSU, Thomas Hammock - NIU) and both have a variety of other positives. BSU returns 15 starters from last year's team and the Huskies of NIU look to build on a 6-5 season that includes a heartbreaking 17-12 loss to in state top 25 rival Illinois. With these credentials either of these teams could potentially leapfrog to the front of the pack.
The bottom end of the west is brought up by the three Michigan teams. Central is the most solid of the three and Western and Eastern look to battle for the cellar. Though I would argue that Eastern should finish last, Western has a vicious OOC schedule featuring Michigan, Purdue, and Virginia Tech that may leave them weary enough to end up in the MAC basement.
Recap - Predicted Finish:
EAST
Marshall
UCF
Miami
Akron
Ohio
Kent
Buffalo
WEST
BGSU
Toledo
N. Ill.
Ball State
Central
Western
Eastern
