Northern Illinois @ Toledo
First off, I wanna say that this is NOT a homer play. I have gone against my Rockets before - when it comes to money, there is no heart. But I think Toledo wins this outright...
Quarterbacks
Toledo's Bruce Gradkowski:
At the end of last season there was a QB controversy. Who will take over as Toledos next QB? I was in favor of Cedric Stevens. He's strong and fast. Bruce "The Moose" seemed impressive in practices and his high school records are awesome. Anywho..I come back home to see Bruce is the starter and allready lost his first career start. Amstutz didnt let him open the playbook - which is not a problem with me when playing OOC games. But this man has really made a name for himself during the Pitt game. All the media hype about Pitt not giving him a scholarship and Bruce wanting to prove himself on the field...and he won. He's been nothing but GREAT ever since. He has shattered Stadium records and will more then likely break Toledo record books. Bruce has a good arm and great accuracy. What makes it even better is that he's very fast. He's the 3rd fastest player on the team running a 4.39 40. This system has fitted him very well. He has all sorts of weapons surrounding him and a great coordinator to guide him (Rob Spence - ex-La Tech coord). The Pitt game showed me he steps up in pressure games, that he laughs at adversity. You gotta like betting a team whos QB rating is 161. Only 4 sacks - again mobility plus a fat OLine. Through 9 games, Bruce has 410 rushing yards and is averaging 45 yards a game! NIU has to face another Josh Harris type QB.
Northern Illinois Josh Haldi
Josh is an alright QB. The media hypes him up for throwing 150 some yards and a TD. Those are hyped up stats? He does however have a VERY impressive 148 QB rating. But I think we are seeing how big the hole is without Dan Sheldon. He is thier Randy Moss. PJ Fleck has done well in his place - but against weak competition. He got shut down against BG. Toledo has been blizting like crazy all year - cant imagine why they wouldnt blitz Haldi all game long. Its not Haldi's arm that has won them games, its obviously Mike Turner and teams FORCED to play man-to-man on these WRs. I can freakin throw 20 some TDs in a season with man-to-man coverage. BUT, thanks to BG...we have seen how "well" he does when he's hurried. He has shitty mobility and no pocket awarness. He basis his success on Mike Turner and the respect he gets. He has been sacked 25 times, behind a supposed "great OLine"
Running Back(s)
Toledo's Baby Backs
The best running game in the MAC is right here in Toledo. If anybody else says otherwise (Like Trev Alberts) then they are morons. Some teams have 1 stud running back, but Toledo has THREE. If you guys saw last years MAC Championship or this years Toledo/Marshall match-up, then you'll know what Iam talking about. The Toledo running game is perfect for this offense. Can do so many things with a good QB who's mobile and has good WRs. These backs arent power backs, they wont run you over. They are scat backs and will make you miss. But of course this is all helped by Toledo's OLine. The biggest in the nation. NIU giving up 171 rushing yards a game.
Northern Illinois Mike Turner
This IS thier offense. He's a great back and has put up great numbers. He has the speed to out run you and has the power to run you over. He's simply the best running back in the conference - just not the best running game. Nothing I can really say about him - he`ll get his yards, he`ll go well over a 100 yards - no doubt about it. In last years game, he got 213 yards in a LOSING effort. Toledo giving up 177 rushing yards a game.
Wide-Recievers
Toledo WRs
Well, they are surprising me. Lance Moore leads the nation in receptions and Toledo has 2 tight ends that will get drafted (according to draft experts). Lance Moore catches everything that comes his way...whether its a screen or bombs. He burnt Pitt's secondary all night long. The other recievers, well Steve Odom is ok, but not a threat. I'd say Bruce's main weapon is Moore followed by the tight ends. But then again, Bruce is hitting 72% of his throws and has gotten 2500 yards thus far. So I guess it dont matter who's catching these balls, he's placing them in the perfect spot if he`s 72%.
NIU Wrs
They WERE good - Dan Sheldon goes down - now they are average. PJ Fleck stepped up big for him, but who will know be the secondary reciever? Sam Hurd??? This wouldnt happen to be the same Sam Hurd that dropped 4 catches in the BG game?? or the possible go-ahead TD in the Ohio game??? ohhhh but it is. Nto reliable and not very fast. Dan Sheldon was the wheels to this reciever core. BG knew it, why waste a safety on him when you can slide him over in the box to stop Turner?
Offensive Line
No contest. Toledo hands down. Bigger, Faster, Stronger.
Defense
No purpose of really getting into this. Every defense in the MAC stinks.
NIU has givin up 21 TDs 402 yards per game.
Toledo has givin up 24 TDs 408 yards per game.
pretty even.
I cant really explain the SHITTY performance against Buffalo. My guess is that they were lazy or just didnt give a shit in a way...not motivated. They shut down Larry Fitzgerald (in the 2nd half), they contained Darious Watts, but they sure did get ran over by Walter Reyes. Toledo is the perfect example of "bend not break" saying. On the flip side...
NIU has faced BCS teams and really shut them down. Now what makes me think they will lay an egg this Saturday......well thats simple.
NIU is hurt
Toledo is healthy
Simple as that. 3 defensive starters out for the season - Toledo has stayed healthy.
Depth vs. No Depth...whats your liking?!?
Final Thoughts
Toledo own opponents that step into the Glass Bowl. The Likes of Purdue, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, and Marshall have all fallen victim to the Glass Bowl. Since the turn of the century, only 1 loss has been recorded - and that was last years Miami/Toledo game. The Stadium is like any other MAC stadium. The student section is behind the opponents bench, right over the players, and of course...the turf. Teams seem to struggle on neXturf...dont know why.
Another reason why I think Toledo wins this is becuase of experience. Toledo is yet again put in a position to win out in order to host the MAC Championship game. They have faced adversity and have been at the bottom looking up - but has climbed to the top to be named king of the hill. You cant recruit experience, you can only gain it. Toledo has PLENTY of it.
