MAD MONDAY

[Randercity]

Minny at TBAY

MINN 0-11 on road vs LH, only scored over 3 runs twice... gotta go D RAYS FOR THE SWEEP!

TBAY D RAY +140
UNDER 9.5 EVEN

 

[tedy]

same as I played!!!

 

[Randercity]

I'm seeing conflicting stats, but according to the MJ DATABASE, Minn has played 15 games vs lefties since May 31st. Ironically, only faced 7 BEFORE the ALL STAR break, going 1-6, and have faced 8 since, going 3-5. According to the database, they have LOST all 7 games on the road VS LH starters, since May 31st, but NSS FAST FACTS, AL BREAKDOWN from the Resources section shows them at 1-1 vs LH on the road. What gives??? I've been using that report, but am now skeptical. I've found it to be accurate and updated correctly, but this troubles me. ANY thoughts?

I also need to correct the above post, MINNY has lost SEVEN straight on the ROAD vs LH, not 11. Guess I was thinking CRAPS... Seven... come 11!

 

[Randercity]

Sorry I was late in posting, I saw RAYMOND on DRAYS, so I figured EVERY ONE would already be on TAMPA anyway.

I was trying to get the stats right before making my play, and it wasn't working.

I played the D RAYS on the run-line also, but didn't list it. The ONLY THING that concerned me in this game was the HP UMP, Marty Foster. He favors the HT, 16-8 which is a good thing, but also the OVER 15-9. Generally an UMP with an O/U record like that has a tight strike zone, and with two rookie pitchers, that could lead to alot of walks. BUT with the way these two are hitting, and very few HR threats in EITHER lineup, walks may not amount to too much. THEN, someone was kind enough to move the total to 9.5 OVER for me, so I got to go UNDER 9.5 at even money and was sold. Anytime I see a low scoring game, and can get the HOME TEAM at +1.5 -110, I'm in! These two have played 3 straight tight games, and I'm hoping for a 4th.

OR, a BIG D RAYS WIN, either way it's T BAY!

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

yes, i know that Minny plays like crap against lefties, but Beerbrat is not a "spectacular" lefty.
I played Minny due to the fact that they have something to play for, first place, and to be swept by the D-RAYS on the road in a four gamer will pretty much throw up a white flag on minny's part..
i was just playing the no-sweep theory.

 

[WORM]

bierbodt is looking good right now. he is usually a pitcher that gets stronger. if you get him you get him early. this ump is squeezing losche and he is throuwing meetballs. i think maybe the under was the play here but i jumped on minny once again. still time but looking bad

 

[Subagoto]

I am with you guys on MIN. I would LOVE to find a prop on Minny not finishing above .500 this year. 9 more vs. CLE and 6 vs. ANA. That could easily be 3-12 right there the way these guys are hitting.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

5-0...oh well...


time to pull out the 5 big unitz on....the Big Unit tonite.

 

[Never Caught Up]

TV,

Are you going to lay five units or try to win five units.

A dime and a half to win a nick . . . no step for a stepper.

Good luck . . . I've got them too . . . wired up with STL and HOU. Nothing straight. No balls I guess.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

goin on the -1.5 runline to WIN 5 units back...
gotta take a chance..this looks like a good spot to take it in.

 

[Randercity]

Nice 2-0 start officially, but I had the RUN LINE on T BAY too, so actually 3-0!

Sorry guys that played the "no sweep" theory, I looked at that, but MINNY is just terrible vs Lefties... I couldn't see backing them at -150. HP Ump at 16-8 for home team was the clincher for me, well, and the fact that RAYMOND was on D RAYS too. He's been too hot to go against! Good luck on ARIZONA tonite T-V! D BACKS look good after sweeping ATLANTA, but still got to look at the game.

 

[tedy]

TAMPA

 

[tedy]

TAMPA

 

[tedy]

TAMPA

 

[Randercity]

Glad you liked that TEDY!

wow... acutally some posts that AREN'T just me rambling...

NOW, if I could only get ROBERTBIRISH to post in here for some good karma!

Cubs at HOUSTON

No need to do major write up here, look for ROBERTBIRISH's post in RAYMONDS thread. Very solid info there and good enough for me!

HOUSTON -130 waited too long, line moved

 

[Allnet]

Minn last 8 games scored more than 3 twice.
Today it got worse. Get descent pitching but no runs generally. I missed the game today, looks to be a good under team now.

------------------
"A group is better than any individual"

 

[Anders]

Good god Randy, people are visiting today

A new leaf turned over at MJ's?

 

[Randercity]

Scary isn't it Anders??

Cincy at ST LOUIS

ST LOUIS hot off a good weekend at NY while CINCY's BP was again wiltering late yesterday, giving up 5 runs in the top of the ninth. BIG MAC is hot... that should be two runs on it's own... figuring he'll get 1 hit in five at bats since he's batting third, that's 1 hr since his last 11 hits have all gone deep!

Their young gun pitcher is also a good hitter, sitting at .278 for the year. BOTH teams have all the regulars in except for DREW, so look for a higher scoring game tonite and STL WINNING!
CINCY will try and get as many as they can, because they KNOW they'll have to go to the BP sooner or later, and then it's LOOK OUT! It won't matter... STL wins going away! 8-4

STL -150 and OVER 9 EVEN

 

[Randercity]

After reading NICK's column, which was very good info my friend, I have debated on playing the BIG UNIT tonite in AZ. What I've decided to do is this... I'm going to hold off on playing this game til I see the lineups as AZ may rest some regulars since it is ONLY PITT~ and we got RANDY going. I'm hoping to be 3-0 (based on CIN/STL going OVER early) and leading HOU and STL when the lineups come out. IN THAT CASE, I probably pass altogether and enjoy my GREAT DAY. BUT, as he mentioned, if HOU and STL were both losing large, then I may reconsider and play AZ which is the obvious play. YES, I risk losing even more after starting the day 3-0 counting the runline on TBAY, but I strongly feel that ALL the HOME TEAMS are very good plays today and warrant playing. I WOULD NOT however risk screwing up a possible 6-0 day by losing back HALF my profit on one game... it's a matter of what your goal is, and mine is to profit each day AFTER making MOST of my plays. SAT proved to me it's better to NOT press your luck. Started 0-3, but didn't waver... came back strong going 5-0 on my next post. NOW, I'm up on the day, but didn't know when I posted four more games. I win the first 3 of those, and have now won 8 straight! Lose the last of those four, and THEN, thinking I'm onto to something, PLAYED STRONG LATE, partially due to distorted mindset as I started partying early when my day was sour, and FELT, I needed the NERVE to face the music... well, it worked at first, but my greediness got me in the end and I ended a day of winning 8 straight, by losing SEVEN IN A ROW!!! FATE, luck, decide many games and the MORE you play, the more you're exposed. Sooner or later, luck will catch up to you... so hopefully, I can PASS on ARIZONA!

 

[Randercity]

Well, with the score 4-2 in HOUSTON, and 0-0 in STL, I can't count on anything happening. UNFORTUNATELY, my outs available to me have AZ -330 and -350 which is ABSURD. HOWEVER, with GILES sitting out, and J BELL possibly sitting for AZ, I doubt if this game gets five runs in it. JOHNSON can't hit, let alone bunt, so that's one out every 3 innings and with GILES out for PITT, I don't see them getting 2 runs if that. THAT means, AZ HAS to score at least six runs, but I don't think they will against Anderson. I think they coast to a low scoring win tonite, only exerting what is required. THEY just left ATL, a very emoitional and intense weekend, and they are SUPPOSED to be up for PITT at home... I don't see it. Teams need to rest up during the season, and that's what I see here.

AZ UNDER 7.5 -105