Magazines

IE

Administrator
Forum Admin
Forum Member
Mar 15, 1999
95,440
223
63
phil steele annual:

* June 5, 2012 they ship
 

Corley1011

Hail State!
Forum Member
Dec 13, 2006
11,744
62
48
40
Madison, MS
I'm leaning L'ville right now... I donno what UK has this year, but L'ville has a lot returning on D that was pretty good last year
 

joefrog91

Rah, Rah, TCU!
Forum Member
Nov 13, 2002
4,402
8
0
57
Waco, TX
Can't wait either. Regular season was very good for me, but the bowls blew me away. I've vowed to cut my plays down even more than I did last year. I'm going to try and stay away from the MAC and Sun Belt this year (unless there is another Over trend that just can't lose). :lol:
 

#cruncher

Registered User
Forum Member
Jul 26, 1999
9,443
420
83
New Orleans
I'm leaning L'ville right now... I donno what UK has this year, but L'ville has a lot returning on D that was pretty good last year

Not only does Louisville have a good defense returning but they changed offensive coordinators mid-season about last year. Points per game shot up from 17.8 to 29.0 from the first seven games compared to the last 5, so the change was obviously a good one, or they got better at doings things, take your pick.

But the Cards can be hard to figure. Going back over things this summer, I had them performing an average 17pts better on the road than at home, and performing 17pts better as a dog vs a favorite. How do you explain beating Murray St by only 12, and losing to FIU and Marshall all at home, then going on the road and beating West Virginia as a 12.5 dog. I know these type of things don't always hold up season after season but it doesn't hurt to be aware of them.

In general, when these 2 tangle (being a rivalry and all), if one team isn't a lot better than the other, I usually like to go with the road team, for some reason the road team just seems to get a little more jacked up for the game.

Kentucky's biggest losses were at LB, Danny Trevathan and Winston Guy, both drafted late by Denver and Seattle respectively. Trevathan was probably the biggest loss and probably can't be replaced (as such). He ran about a 4.4 forty and led the SEC in tackles the last 2 years. The defensive line and DBs should be just as good or better. The defense played real good their last 2 games of the season, holding Georgia and Tennessee to an average of 13ppg. They really weren't that bad before then, it was just that the offensive could keep them off the field and they would wear down. So if they can find some LBs they could be a pretty decent unit, which could set up an under play for this game.

Offensive
Kentucky loses 3 starting OL, but the O Line was supposed to be the strength of the team last year and it really wasn't. They've got some capable guys to take over it's just they are going to be thin there.

Possible good news is that the passing game should be better with a year's experience now for the QB (Smith) and 2 redshirt freshman that some have been raving about (Demarco Robinson & Daryl Collins). Smith described Robinson as spooky quick or words to that effect. Tight end is supposedly going to be a strenght also.

The key will be if they can run the ball, I'd say at least average 125 to 140ypg; if they can do that they might surprise some people. But even if they do, it probably won't affect their conference record that much, but that's just life in the SEC. Hope this helps.

Fwiw, I've got Louisville by 11,9, and 1...3 different ways.
 
Last edited:

Corley1011

Hail State!
Forum Member
Dec 13, 2006
11,744
62
48
40
Madison, MS
Joe - you know you'll be a degenerate with the rest of us on the mid week shit games... better to just go ahead and accept it :mj07:


cruncher - awesome info man... I'm still thinking L'ville here by 14 :0008
 

Mr. Poon

Sugar?
Forum Member
Jan 14, 2006
13,160
209
0
Colorado
Points per game shot up from 17.8 to 29.0 from the first seven games compared to the last 5, so the change was obviously a good one, or they got better at doings things, take your pick.

In college you can often have stretches of 3 or 4 really tough or really easy games so looking at stats of opponents sometimes helps out. However, that doesn't lend anything here looking at Total D stats of Ville's opponents. Their foes avergage rank from games 2-7 was 45, while the average for games 8 - 13 (I included their bowl opponent) was 44. Add in the fact that their opener Murray state finished 87th in FCS. So it wasn't as if they were playing easier competition. The change in coordinator seems to have made a big difference.
 

#cruncher

Registered User
Forum Member
Jul 26, 1999
9,443
420
83
New Orleans
In college you can often have stretches of 3 or 4 really tough or really easy games so looking at stats of opponents sometimes helps out. However, that doesn't lend anything here looking at Total D stats of Ville's opponents. Their foes avergage rank from games 2-7 was 45, while the average for games 8 - 13 (I included their bowl opponent) was 44. Add in the fact that their opener Murray state finished 87th in FCS. So it wasn't as if they were playing easier competition. The change in coordinator seems to have made a big difference.

Most definitely.
 

Cie

Registered
Forum Member
Apr 30, 2003
22,391
253
0
New Orleans
I like to see Cruncher and Poon in midseason form:toast:

I'm looking forward to this season even more than usual. Lsu should be a leg?t title contender again. After this season the tigers should dip, though. Much has been made locally about LSUs poor qb play since Matt flynn, but lsu's team success has been directly correlated to the level of play of the defensive line imo. In 8 years, they've been top 10, normally top 5, except when they lost 9 games combined in two seasons following the 07 national title. Those 2 seasons the DL was at a decade low in terms of talent.

After this season, LSU will lose Logan, mingo and montgomery off the DL. The current recruiting class will be unable to fill the void, at least not next season. It's just one of those things that happen when you lose a soph DT to the NFL one year, then 3 juniors the next. The secondary has been hit by underclassmen being drafted 1st round the past 2 seasons, and Eric Reid will be another after this season. Of course, there always appears to be a much larger pool of skilled DBs than DL, so that part of the roster looks good for fall of 2013 despite all of the recent and pending early defections to the league.

Not sure why I went off on this tangent, but I think it's needless to say that football is on my mind. Cheers:toast:
 
Last edited:

joefrog91

Rah, Rah, TCU!
Forum Member
Nov 13, 2002
4,402
8
0
57
Waco, TX
Cie Grant, sounds like TCU will play LSU at the right time then. Of course, that depends on Pachall staying for his Sr year. If TCU is breaking in a new QB, it will be a rough game for my Horned Frogs.
 
Last edited:

Cie

Registered
Forum Member
Apr 30, 2003
22,391
253
0
New Orleans
Cie Grant, sounds like TCU will play LSU at the right time then. Of course, that depends on Pachall staying for his Sr year. If TCU is breaking in a new QB, it will be a rough game for my Horned Frogs.

Should be fun, Joe. It's at jerry world, right? If so, I'd like to go. Never been to the dallas area. Would like to check it out.
 
Bet on MyBookie
Top