Make up bets, laying off and playing day to day

[buddy]

I do not wager on baseball, but in regards to this discussion, I am in total agreement with Junior44....

Every game is an isolated event.

A game either has "real value" or it does not.

Your handicapping methods SHOULD be able to show you the advantage.

If you do not handicap, ALL games have "artificial value."

Handicapping is difficult and time consuming.

Money management, without discipline and patience, is even moreso.

 

[djv]

Buddy why not take 1000 inplace of 500? It was just that day the set up was there. Yes some go day to day with a plan in mind. I do not believe Fletcher is saying day to day and just shoot for the moon. And yes J44 the parlay was not good example. But if it was there for the taking I will take some money off it by betting back. All im saying and I think many other are is. If you can have a set up to make the money, Make the money. In Fletchers case above. That is completely a single situation that you can take advantage of. With very good reason to do so. Fun one to kick around. And only one insult that was not called for.

 

[buddy]

dj,

I have to agree with you.

I, too, would back bet.

Obviously, if the parlay was in the same time zone, you wouldn't have the option.

But since the option was available, I would have taken some money off and gone to bed a winner.

 

[buddy]

Am I an ignoramus or what?

It wasn't even a parlay...it was two seperate plays (big dogs), one early..one late.

The big dog barked.

Fletcher's opinion was that it's very unusual for two big dogs to both bark in the same day.

I listen to Fletcher and buy back the second game.

 

[Randercity]

A suggestion for those who do play the BIG DOGS is this... On a day when you have TWO BIG DOGS with your 'capped value, I suggest playing them at game time if possible. In Nick's case, the first game was completed BEFORE the 2nd one started. This situation allows you the best of both worlds. IF the first one wins, you can decide to keep the profit, and pass on the 2nd one. You can play for "half" the norm, thus insuring a greater profit, play the RUN-LINE, or if you decide it is worth the risk, play your normal play.

By doing so, you allow yourself the chance to do what is best for you at the time. I WOULD not bet the other side, and FLETCHER did not suggest that, simply buy back. BUT, if you haven't wagered on it yet, there's no need to buy it back. ALSO, JOHNY Q tends to play BIG FAVS, thus pushing up the line, and increasing the odds on the 2nd dog, and AFTER the first one losing, this is even more evident as the PUB chases it's first loss.

I love having this situation, although it's rare, and for me, the RUN-LINE is the way I go most of the time, knowing I can still lose the game, but win my wager.

Just my thoughts... Kotysdad came up with some interesting stats on this.. here's the thead.
http://www.madjacksports.com/ubb/Forum2/HTML/009657.html

 

[Junior44]

Again, this is fallacious logic. Keep what profit? Profit for the day, week, month, year? Either a game has value or it does not have value. Simple as that. The day in which the game is played is irrelevant.

 

[SLAM DUNK]

RE:

Though the phone call was for another subject, fletcher brought up that I would be wise to lay off my evening play on the White Sox by betting Seattle and eating the ten or fifteen percent vig for that play. His reasoning was that no matter how strong I feel the White Sox are, I have a $1000 guaranteed profit for the day if I bet back Seattle and forgoe any action for the evening. Also, he pointed out that it is extremely rare for two +200 underdogs to win in the same day, and that I should just be happy hitting the first play.


Junior44, we are in complete agreement.

Point 1) Nick Douglas has already locked in a profit for the day. Even after play 2 lost he still is up $500.

Point 2) Big dogs rarely bite twice in one day is an irrelevant point. Lets assume that each play has a 40% chance of winning(that would be an outstanding expected roi of 20%). Even then, both would win only .4*.4 or 16% of the time. That to me qualifies as rarely, but the .4 is a constant. In other words game two still has a 40% chance of winning whether game 1 wins or not. Thus game 2 has a big positive expectation and thus game 2 is a great play whether game 1 wins or loses. The returns more than make of for the fact that both big dogs rarely win.

Here is the math assuming a .40 expected hit rate(perhaps an overstatement), but I have to use something.

Total risk $1000($500 on each)

Both plays win

.4 *. 4= =.16 * return of $3000 *.16 or $480

.6*.6= .36 Both plays lose return 0

One play wins and one play loses

.48* return of $1500 or $720

So $1000 risked and expected return of $1200 or an expected profit of $200 or 20%. It just so happens that with a 48% chance of winning 1 game and a 16% chance of winning both games that 3 out of 4 days winning days you will be at 1-1 for the day.

Bottom line is each game is a completely independent event (I realize that there are some exceptions, for instance 2 teams are fighting for 1st place and one team wins the other might now be more motivated or be feeling the pressure more-but in this illustration I assume the events were completely independent). Winning gamblers are simply shoppers. They assess the probabilities of a situation, find an edge and make an investment. Players that are able to do so with accuracy are the ones that win money each and every year. The ones who aren't will struggle. Each wager is part of a sports investor's portfolio. His end of the year bottom line should reflect the net expected return of each play. Start throwing in negative expectation plays for the sake of protecting a larger profit for the day and you are going down the wrong path. There is absolutely no mathmatical justification for playing the other side of the 2nd game, unless for some reason you decide you no longer like the game or something has happened to take away the edge. Otherwise stick with the play. What I find the most curious is the fact that if game 2 happened to be cancelled, if they play again tomorrow and the edge is the same, should Nick Douglas now make the play?.

 

[pepin46]

ok, this will settle it:

fletcher is a day to day gambler. he makes it his business to gain his "average" every day.

nick is a writer with the sideline of being a recreational long-term bettor/handicapper, who goes for net return over the long run using an almost opposite strategy to fletcher and doing it for different reasons.

fletcher is unlike most of us, who do it partly for money and partly for recreation. if we did it for money we would be fletchers and make a living off it!

thus, if nick had not made his late bet, and having pocketed a nice profit already, he might consider cutting down in half his late bet, thus reducing a potentially larger profit or loss, or keeping his pick, as it really had nothing to do with his previous one. in other words, if nick hits 2 200 to 1 in one day, does he skip the next week of games because he already made his week? no.

while the argument of 2 large dogs not having the same chance of winning as would 2 large favorites is valid, the mere difference in
$$$ gains vs. losses certainly puts a question mark on the validity of the issue.

conclusion:

the fletcher day to day, make a living strategy is certainly not like the majority of the readers on this forum, and there is no way to settle that argument with people who have different reasons and objectives.

nick: is this like a "steal" of "can you make a living off gambling". i had it copyrighted, you know?

pep

 

[TheSportsPredictor]

Of course, this is all based on the following statement ...

How often do you see two +200 dogs win the same day?

Heck if I know after reading all this -- no one bothered to check.

 

[Innavation]

Fellas these games have no MEMORY---they do not go over or under in any sort of pattern....Hint----if it can not think there is no set pattern!!! i repeat not set pattern!!!! It is like when i play hold'em poker---these people request new decks and are constantly blaming the cards!!! these cards have no memory---everyone in a life time will see the same amount of good cards and bad cards----it;s what you do with these cards is the key!!!! Handicapping games is the same waY.. I have a playbook i follow when i play cards---it takes discipline to stick to this playbook when your getting cracked on pocket aces and being on tilt is a possibility>> but never--i pride myself on discipline and sticking to that playbook.... That is the real test to us all Coaches, athletes, handicappers,poker players...The srong survive and the undiscplined falter!!! This is the same with handicappers---experience enoughed to stick with therioes and certain numbers placed by odds makers and most importantly the public's percetion.. To bring back the original question of wether or not to bet the night dog after the first one came in... if one feels strongly about the play and is confident enough in his ablility--and skill than make the play....Only time will judge what each person should do ---What i mean by this is that if one is losing everything and can not pick a game than maybe betting the other side in the night game is a good idea!!! However; if feel confident in one's ability(as i do in myself)---sticking with the original play is the only play!!! I honestly BELIEVE a certain type of person can beat this game!!!! but one has to really want it---Like making it to the Pro's---Takes a lot of hardwork---patience---dedication----------A true competitor!!!

 

[Innavation]

Fellas these games have no MEMORY---they do not go over or under in any sort of pattern....Hint----if it can not think there is no set pattern!!! i repeat not set pattern!!!! It is like when i play hold'em poker---these people request new decks and are constantly blaming the cards!!! these cards have no memory---everyone in a life time will see the same amount of good cards and bad cards----it;s what you do with these cards is the key!!!! Handicapping games is the same waY.. I have a playbook i follow when i play cards---it takes discipline to stick to this playbook when your getting cracked on pocket aces and being on tilt is a possibility>> but never--i pride myself on discipline and sticking to that playbook.... That is the real test to us all Coaches, athletes, handicappers,poker players...The srong survive and the undiscplined falter!!! This is the same with handicappers---experience enoughed to stick with therioes and certain numbers placed by odds makers and most importantly the public's percetion.. To bring back the original question of wether or not to bet the night dog after the first one came in... if one feels strongly about the play and is confident enough in his ablility--and skill than make the play....Only time will judge what each person should do ---What i mean by this is that if one is losing everything and can not pick a game than maybe betting the other side in the night game is a good idea!!! However; if feel confident in one's ability(as i do in myself)---sticking with the original play is the only play!!! I honestly BELIEVE a certain type of person can beat this game!!!! but one has to really want it---Like making it to the Pro's---Takes a lot of hardwork---patience---dedication----------A true competitor!!!

 

[Innavation]

Where is my Post????

 

[visionary]

I VOTE FOR INNAVATION AS OUR NEW GUEST HANDICAPPER!!!!!