Malaysian Open

[Stanley]

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)

Maarten Lafeber to win 33/1 e.w. @ GolfingGods
Good odds for a player who finished 2nd in the last event in this region - the Caltex Masters last month - and in the top-5 four times in twelve starts in this region over the last four years. A solid 21st place finish in Australia against a much stronger field is also supportive as is the fact that he finished 7th on his previous appearance on this course in 2001. the fact that he doesn't convert his places finishes into win appears to be the only downside to this play.

Wen-Chong Liang to finish in the top-five 11.5/1 @ Expekt
The top-ranked player in China has yet to win a Tour event, but he is getting ever closer. His last six starts have all yielded top-20 finishes and three of them have been top-5s, including the co-sanctioned event in Singapore three weeks ago. He does have course experience and looks destined Kevin Na as the next young Asian golfer to graduate to the PGA Tour.

Marcus Fraser to finish in the top-five 12.5/1 @ IASbet
In good form and with a good history on this course. Fraser finished 5th in Singapore three weeks ago and looked set to repeat the feat last week when he entered the final round in 4th place. He finished in 13th place and it was a similar story on his previous appearance at Saujana: he was 4th with one round to play, but a final round 75 saw him finish 17th. He is capable of winning as he showed by winning three times in 2003 on the Challenge Tour - while the Moscow Open was co-sanctioned with the main Tour - but maybe place-only is the best option given these final round wobbles.

 

[phar lap]

Round 1 18 hole Spread bets (all prices are SportingIndex)

1. Lafeber / Dodd 3 - 6
Sell 1 unit @ 3 to be with Dodd

2. McGinley / Wiratchant 1 - 4
Buy 1 unit @ 4 to be with McGinley

3. Kingston / Kang 5 - 8
Buy 1 unit @ 8 to be with Kingston

4. Moseley / McGrane 1 - 4
Sell 1 unit at 1 to be with McGrane

5. Zhang / Campbell 1 - 4
Buy 1 unit at 4 to be with Zhang (I'm going to the Michael Campbell well one more time! )

 

[lostinamerica]

OUTRIGHTS:


These are my underwhelming choices:

Niclas Fasth(33/1) e.w. @ Bet365
- - At least until the first Fasth-worthy triple bogey comes along - even on a strange continent and notwithstanding his website quotes, "I will now try to re-group and get some new energy for next week?s tournament in Malaysia (2.13.05) . . . Malaysian Open (is) a totally different setup from last week, narrow fairways and the grass is different as well (2.16.05)" - I'm going from a working hypothesis that what preceded (remotely and immediately) presents a fairly classic case of the stride and swagger of the immediate follow-up act being far more dangerous than distracted and drained.

Peter Lawrie(100/1) e.w @ 5dimes
- - That price was too inviting for me, and almost made it my top play.

Maarten Lafeber(25/1) e.w. @ Bet365
- - Lafeber seemed to be always on view during the Singapore telecast, and notwithstanding some impressive final stats, there was a good and a bad quality to his play that was disconcerting on one level, but clearly equated to making a score like the big boys often manage. With solid credentials in Asia, a quick return there is a fairly promising spot for something similar or even more captivating.

Paul McGinley(28/1) e.w. @ Bet365
- - In last year's weather delayed tournament, I remember well McGinley's sharp play and uneventful scoring that just set the tone for another season of individual expectations not quite fulfilled . . . A pairing with Fasth is far from neutral. McGinley certainly arrives off a long trip from Monterey, where he was his usual self on the fussy greens, and the weather was respectable, but with prospects of this week's weather being much preferred while rehabing from his knee operation . . . Anyway, McGinley offers a chance for a play on a little bit of two angles: (1)Thirsty players drinking from the victory cup has emerged as a solid trend to start the European Tour season; and (2) The PGA Tour season has already featured a solid trend of predictable suspects giving fine efforts in response to some manner of disappointment in a recent edition of the event on hand and/or in recent weeks.


MATCHUPS:

Pe.Lawrie(-105) over Derksen (Tournament) @ 5dimes


GL

 

[phar lap]

Round 1 results

1. Lafeber beat Dodd by 3. Loss of 16 units.

2. McGinley beat Wiratchant by 1. Profit of 9 units.

3. Kang beat Kingston by 4. Loss of 30 units.

4. Moseley beat Mcgrane by 5. Loss of 24 units.

5. Zhang beat Campbell by 2. Profit of 12 units.

Overall loss of 49 units.

 

[phar lap]

Round 2 spread bets

1. Zhang / Campbell 2 - 5
Buy @ 5 for 1 unit to be with Zhang.

2. McGinley/Wiratchant 1 - 4
Buy @ 4 for 1 unit to be with Mcginley.

3. Moseley/ McGrane 3 - 6
Sell @ 3 for 1 unit to be with McGrane.

4. Lafeber / Dodd 4 - 7
Sell @ 4 for 1 unit to be with Dodd.

5. Kingston/Kang 1 - 4
Buy at 4 for 1 unit to be with Kingston.

 

[sports student]

4th round at 5 dimes:

Bjorn -120 over Jaidee

 

[Stanley]

Outrights - FINAL RESULT: 0-3; -3.00pts

Lafeber 25th
Liang 8th
Fraser 25th

All three in the top-25, but no return. Had looked promising with Lafeber early on and then Liang in the final round, but parred the easy final two holes when he needed to birdie them to earn a payout on the play.

I seem to have forgotten to post my matchup plays ... just as well, they lost! Will still count them in my P/L though as will get confusing having different records.

Asian PGA Tour ytd
Outrights: 1-5; -3.50pts
Matchups: 1-3; -2.90pts

 

[phar lap]

Lost 22 units in my second round plays.

Lost 71 units for the event. (goes to show it ain't far from the penthouse to the shithouse when playing spreads).

Lost 4 units in ths US, so down 75 units for the week.