Several days can go by without my system producing any 70%+, but I've got a whopping 7 (3 NL, 4 AL) called for Tuesday, barring any additional info. I've looked into these pretty in-depth, so flag me (better yet, phone) if you think the OTHER side is the play, meaning I may have missed something.
Not many the past week, but I've done well playing 2-teamers with some pricey lines, grabbing anywhere from +125 to +180 for my efforts. If I can get semi-decent lines for any of the following then I will probably look at some 2-teamers. Runlines are another possibility for these.
game..............................% call..........line?........PV......runline blurb
D'Backs (Vargas@Unit)......78............-220........+9......PV+8 at -130 (65%)
Dodgers (Graves@Brown)..73........-210(dream)..+5...PV+3 at -120 (58%)
Giants (Wells@Schmidt).....75...........-220........+6.......PV+5 at -125 (61%)
Yanks (Lewis@Clemens)....72...........-250........even....PV-1 at -150 (59%)
Bosox (Lackey@Suppan)....75...........-185.......+10......PV+9 at -115 (63%)
a's (Harden@Cornejo).......70......-185(dream)...+5.....PV+3 at -110 (56%)
Chisox (Snyder@Loaiza)....71...........-185.........+6.......PV+8 at +100 (58%)
Yanks (all, really) will probably be priced outta sight, but the rest may squeeze my lemon 'til the juice runs down my leg. None of these I could justify playing the other way, but if you see any reasons (e.g Graves not so bad vs LA in limited career work) then type ahoy and help save me a major re-up (I see LOTS of goodies happenin' Tuesday). I've looked pretty deep here (maybe TOO deep), and I'll try to do a 'system numbers' thread tomorrow, to indicate why I'm so hot for these games.
Other thoughts Tuesday
--------------------------------
--only got Braves 54 (Ramirez@Kinney), making Brewers tempting at +150 or better (especially if A.Jones sits)
--mets@Astros (Leiter(real hot)@Villone(similar)) under looks REAL hot; at a 9 I shoot a load; 8 would have me probably disguntlingly laying a unit; Astros also look good here, but I'm a bit of a Leiter-lover (nice 15 inning (or so) scoreless inning streak going, too)
--phillies@Rockies (Myers@Chacon) under (11?) looks good as well, though I've noticed that Myers performs poorly in parks not considered pitcher's parks (check out his bad games); I think Rockies would have some value here at +100 (PV+7 at 57%)
--love Prior, but can't touch him here vs Lawrence & Padres -- PV-9 at 56% and -180 (could be more like -160, but still PV-6); PV+6 at under 7.5 (56%); Prior was cool, though, before sitting out recently; Lawrence is likewise cold, and neither starter has performed too well vs opponent
--good performance by Graves (vs Brown) probably puts this under 7.5, PV+6 at 59% and -110
--Wells@Schmidt also looks under, PV+8 at 61% under 8 at -110
--got Orioles 57% (Rogers@Johnson), so I'd gladly take a +100 here
--Bosox and Suppan look hot here, especially vs brutal Lackey and currently punchless Angels who are dealing with lotsa injury problems
--I see no value in either mariners -150 (59%) or an 8 total (55% under)
--jays@D'Rays (Hendrickson@Sosa) over looks scrumptious, PV+9 at over 10 -110 (62%); we should know who the ump is for this one by gametime tonight -- hope he's got a tiny K-zone ... 'yes, Jorge, that's ball 4 again ... you don't like bases loaded?' ...
--Loaiza usually a good under play, but Snyder is chilly, and a 9-3 Sox win would not surprise me here; call 55% on an under 8
I better get some sleep so I can be coherent when the lines FINALLY open for these tasty morsels.
Here's hoping I'm not out to lunch.
Enjoy the festivities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Squeeze my lemon
'Til the JUICE runs down my leg
The way you squeeze my lemon
I'm gonna fall right outta bed ((or into bankruptcy))
(Zeppelin-LZ II-The Lemon Song)
Not many the past week, but I've done well playing 2-teamers with some pricey lines, grabbing anywhere from +125 to +180 for my efforts. If I can get semi-decent lines for any of the following then I will probably look at some 2-teamers. Runlines are another possibility for these.
game..............................% call..........line?........PV......runline blurb
D'Backs (Vargas@Unit)......78............-220........+9......PV+8 at -130 (65%)
Dodgers (Graves@Brown)..73........-210(dream)..+5...PV+3 at -120 (58%)
Giants (Wells@Schmidt).....75...........-220........+6.......PV+5 at -125 (61%)
Yanks (Lewis@Clemens)....72...........-250........even....PV-1 at -150 (59%)
Bosox (Lackey@Suppan)....75...........-185.......+10......PV+9 at -115 (63%)
a's (Harden@Cornejo).......70......-185(dream)...+5.....PV+3 at -110 (56%)
Chisox (Snyder@Loaiza)....71...........-185.........+6.......PV+8 at +100 (58%)
Yanks (all, really) will probably be priced outta sight, but the rest may squeeze my lemon 'til the juice runs down my leg. None of these I could justify playing the other way, but if you see any reasons (e.g Graves not so bad vs LA in limited career work) then type ahoy and help save me a major re-up (I see LOTS of goodies happenin' Tuesday). I've looked pretty deep here (maybe TOO deep), and I'll try to do a 'system numbers' thread tomorrow, to indicate why I'm so hot for these games.
Other thoughts Tuesday
--------------------------------
--only got Braves 54 (Ramirez@Kinney), making Brewers tempting at +150 or better (especially if A.Jones sits)
--mets@Astros (Leiter(real hot)@Villone(similar)) under looks REAL hot; at a 9 I shoot a load; 8 would have me probably disguntlingly laying a unit; Astros also look good here, but I'm a bit of a Leiter-lover (nice 15 inning (or so) scoreless inning streak going, too)
--phillies@Rockies (Myers@Chacon) under (11?) looks good as well, though I've noticed that Myers performs poorly in parks not considered pitcher's parks (check out his bad games); I think Rockies would have some value here at +100 (PV+7 at 57%)
--love Prior, but can't touch him here vs Lawrence & Padres -- PV-9 at 56% and -180 (could be more like -160, but still PV-6); PV+6 at under 7.5 (56%); Prior was cool, though, before sitting out recently; Lawrence is likewise cold, and neither starter has performed too well vs opponent
--good performance by Graves (vs Brown) probably puts this under 7.5, PV+6 at 59% and -110
--Wells@Schmidt also looks under, PV+8 at 61% under 8 at -110
--got Orioles 57% (Rogers@Johnson), so I'd gladly take a +100 here
--Bosox and Suppan look hot here, especially vs brutal Lackey and currently punchless Angels who are dealing with lotsa injury problems
--I see no value in either mariners -150 (59%) or an 8 total (55% under)
--jays@D'Rays (Hendrickson@Sosa) over looks scrumptious, PV+9 at over 10 -110 (62%); we should know who the ump is for this one by gametime tonight -- hope he's got a tiny K-zone ... 'yes, Jorge, that's ball 4 again ... you don't like bases loaded?' ...
--Loaiza usually a good under play, but Snyder is chilly, and a 9-3 Sox win would not surprise me here; call 55% on an under 8
I better get some sleep so I can be coherent when the lines FINALLY open for these tasty morsels.
Here's hoping I'm not out to lunch.
Enjoy the festivities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Squeeze my lemon
'Til the JUICE runs down my leg
The way you squeeze my lemon
I'm gonna fall right outta bed ((or into bankruptcy))
(Zeppelin-LZ II-The Lemon Song)
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