March Madness 2004 Lightning Plays

Lightning

Lightning

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My favorite time of the year is upon us. This is my favorite sporting event and baseball will start up soon as well which is my favorite sport to wager. College hoops and NFL football are my favorite sports to watch.

Like baseball, plays will generally be rated 1 to 5 units.

I will post results in this thread in the format below after each days session

3/17 NCAA Hoops Lightning Recap
NIT Tourney: 9-4 (+8.10 units)
NCAA Tourney: 0-0 (0.00 units)
Sides: 0-0 (0.00 units)
Totals: 0-0 (0.00 units)
Money Lines: 0-0 (0.00 units)
Parlays: 0-0 (0.00 units)
Props: 0-0 (0.00 units)

Overall NCAA Hoops Lightning Recap
NIT Tourney: 9-4 (+8.10 units)
NCAA Tourney: 0-0 (0.00 units)
Sides: 0-0 (0.00 units)
Totals: 0-0 (0.00 units)
Money Lines: 0-0 (0.00 units)
Parlays: 0-0 (0.00 units)
Props: 0-0 (0.00 units)

I will be adding to this thread whenever I make plays throughout the tourney.

3 of the 4 plays I made this morning are what I consider very live dogs getting 7-1/2 or more points who could score nice upsets.

Murray State +7.5 over Illinois ... 0 units NO PLAY

Bought back this play before it was taken off the board due to possible suspensions of 2 Murray State players.

East Tennessee State +9.5 over Cincinnati ... 3 units

Illinois Chicago +8.5 over Kansas ... 3 units

Xavier +2 over Louisville ... 3 units

Any thoughts or input would be appreciated whether supporting or opposing my opinions.

I love March Madness!

Good Luck!

Lightning

:com: :com: :com:

:bigun:
 
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Lightning

Lightning

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Thanks MAJOR ... I did not see that. I am going to buy back that wager and wait till things are more clear cause I agree that changes my thinking on that game.

As for the Xavier play ... might be better off playing them on the money line. I know people will be scared thinking Pitino is a great tourney coach and Louisville was ranked as high as #3 in the country this year. However, I will take the team playing there best ball of the year over the team playing there worst ball of the year and getting points anytime.

Other games I am looking at closely ... Alabama -2 over S. Illinois ... Seton Hall over Arizona (if Zona is looking ahead to Duke, they will be gone).
 
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J

Jersey Playa

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About lightning plays..........

About lightning plays..........

I know someone that lightning bets all the dogs in the first round and said he wins every year....

Are u talking about a action bet?
 
Lightning

Lightning

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Jersey Playa ... I guess I am talking about an action bet although I am not 100% sure what you are referring to. Generally, if you lock in on a line and it changes, it is action. On the Illinois/Murray State game, I bought it back ASAP cause I knew the line was going to drastically change if the two players are suspended.

As for taking dogs in the tourney ... I believe overall, dogs are the better play. There are always plenty of outright upsets or at least near upsets in games that come down to the wire so anytime I can get points with a team I believe can win outright, I think it's worth the risk.

There are more games I am looking at but the ones I have placed already are lines I expect to move against me by gametime. Others I am waiting on cause I think they will either stay neutral or maybe even move in my favor.

Good Luck!

:com:
 
B

Box and one

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Lightning,
Like ETSU +9.5 over Cincy
XU +2 over Louisville...Cards are in trouble...

Bama -2 over SIU..best play.SIU defense cannot stop all the greyhounds of Bama.

Zona-Hall...spent so much time on this game.I hate what I'm figuring out.My numbers have Zona -4 or 5.Still working on it.

Florida -5.5 over Manhattan..this one is tearing me apart but Gators will win and cover. Heard Bobby G on the radio today.SI writer has them going to Sweet 16.Local writers have his kids all pumped up.His kids are now getting cocky.He said today at practice he has to do some "deflating".

GL with picks..
convince me about Illi-Chi-Kansas
 
Lightning

Lightning

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Box and one said:
Lightning,

convince me about Illi-Chi-Kansas
Click to expand...

Okay Box and one ... I don't know that I will be able to convince you of anything but here is my take on this game.

IL-Chicago vs. Kansas
First off, let me say that I am not particurly thrilled with the draw IL-Chicago got as Kansas could dominate inside since the Flames have no answer for Simien on the inside. That said, the Horizon is a very good mid-major conference whose teams have done well in the tournament the past few years. Even when they have lost in the 1st round, the games have pretty much come down to the wire. Kansas is very good but not the dominant team we saw last year with Collision and Heinrich teamed with Simien. I am not playing this game on the ML like I may with some of the other dogs but I do think the Flames can cover the number as the game stays tight. And Kansas is just a team I believe could just as easily go down in the 1st 2 rounds as make a Final 4 run. Anyway, I just have a feeling the Flames hang around with a shot to win this at the end so I'll take the points.

In general, I like playing tough mid-major schools getting 6+ points in the early rounds. I also looked at Manhattan but I agree the value has dropped on that game. I agree Florida gets the cover but I think a well coached Manhattan team will hang around for awhile.

As for Murray State/Illinois ... I am passing. I don't want to touch a game surrounded by controversy cause you just never know how a team will respond.

I appreciate the input and question.

Good Luck!

:com:
 
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C

cooz3

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I WOULD BE REAL CAREFUL WITH THAT XAVIER PICK. I REALIZE THEY ARE PLAYING VERY GOOD AND IN FACT THIER BEST BALL OF THE SEASON BUT THEY CARRIED THAT MOMENTUM THROUGH A TOURNEY WHERE THEY WERE PLAYING EVERYDAY..NOW A WEEK LATER ITS NOT GOING TO BE AS EASY...

THAT BEING SAID ....I CANT ARGUE WITH YOUR ASSESSMENT THAT THE CARDS ARE SIMPLY NOT PLAYING THAT WELL....BUT IN MY HUMBLE OPINION...THEY HAD A NUMBER OF INJURIES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR WHICH CAUSED THIS TEAM TO SLUMP AND IT TAKES A FEW GAMES ONCE A TEAM GETS THOSE GUYS BACK TO ADJUST TO THEIR RETURN...

IN ADDITION, AND AGAIN JUST MY OPINION...I THINK PITINOS "SYSTEM" CAN WEAR ON PLAYERS OVER THE COURSE OF A SEASON...I DONT CARE HOW YOUNG YOU ARE ...PRESSING ALL THE TIME AND PLAYING A "FRANTIC" STYLE WILL TAKE ITS TOLL OVER A LONG REG. SEASON....NOW THAT LOUSIVILLE HAS HAD TIME TO REST..AND DETERMINE THE STRENGHTS AND WEEKNESSES OF THIER OPPONENT...COUPLED WITH THE FACT THAT XAVIER, AGAIN IN MY OPINION, HAS NOT PLAYED A TEAM ON THE SAME "STRATEGIC" LEVEL AS LOUISVILLE THIS YEAR COULD SPELL TROUBLE FOR THEM....MAYBE I GIVE PITINO TO MUCH CREDIT FOR HIS COACHING SKILLS AND STRATEGIES...BUT AT BASICALLY A PICK I THINK THIS IS A GAME WHERE SOMEWHERE ALONG THE LINE..PITINO COULD BE A FACTOR...

GOOD LUCK WITH YOUR PLAYS LIGHTNING

COOZ
 
Lightning

Lightning

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I will post results in this thread in the format below after each days session

I will post results in this thread in the format below after each days session

EDITED ... moved recap to my initial post in thread for easier viewing.
 
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Lightning

Lightning

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3/18 NCAA Lightning Strikes

3/18 NCAA Lightning Strikes

NCAA PLAYS
Murray State +7.5 over Illinois ... 0 units NO PLAY
East Tennessee State +9.5 over Cincinnati ... 3 units
Illinois Chicago +8.5 over Kansas ... 3 units
Richmond +8.5 over Wisconsin ... 3 units
UL Lafayette +7.5 over N.C. State ... 3 units
Xavier +2 over Louisville ... 3 units
NC-Charlotte +110 over Texas Tech ... 3 units
Florida -5 over Manhattan ... 3 units
Maryland -5?-140 over UTEP ? 2 units

Still considering plays on Alabama, Depaul, and Mich State.

I may add plays for Thursday and Friday throughout the day.

Good Luck!

:com: :com: :com:

:bigun:
 
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Lightning

Lightning

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My Thoughts

My Thoughts

Alabama -2.5 vs. Southern Illinois ... I like Bama here as I am another of those who believe Utah State should have gotten this spot but everyone seems to be on Bama which is scraring me off.

Depaul -2.5 vs. Dayton ... public seems to prefer Depaul here and although I like Dayton, I watched St. Joe's destroy them the only time I actually watched them play.

Mich State -2 vs. Nevada ... This line scares me ... Izzo is a big-time game coach and Michigan State has nice talent and played a nasty non-conference schedule. I don't know much about Nevada but I think this line should be bigger. I like Mich State but the line screams for the public to take them which scares me.

Although I do not play games based purely on public opinion ... I am always skepticle when something seems to good to be true ... cause in my experience, most often you get burned.

Any commentary to these would be appreciated. At this point, I am laying off these games because I cannot come to a firm decision although usually I prefer to stay with my instincts.

Thanks in advance!
 
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Lightning

Lightning

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2nd Half

2nd Half

1st Half Play
St. Joe's (1st half) -14 ... 3 units

2nd Half Play
Florida -4.5 (s/h) over Manhattan ... 2 units

:com:
 
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