March Madness Primer

Master Capper

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Seed 1 vs Seed 16 SU 20-0 ATS 10-10 Avg Score 82-53

Seed 2 vs Seed 15 SU 18-2 ATS 8-12 Avg Score 75-61

Seed 3 vs Seed 14 SU 19-1 ATS 12-7-1 Avg Score 75-62

Seed 4 vs Seed 13 SU 16-4 ATS 11-8-1 Avg Score 74-66

Seed 5 vs Seed 12 SU 12-8 ATS 7-12-1 Avg Score 71-67

Seed 6 vs Seed 11 SU 15-5 ATS 11-9 Avg Score 72-67

Seed 7 vs Seed 10 SU 9-11 ATS 9-10-1 Avg Score 67-66

Seed 8 vs Seed 9 SU 10-10 ATS 10-10 Avg Score 68-67


Based on games from 99-03
 

Master Capper

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1 vs 16 13 of 20 totals have went under

2 vs 15 13 of 20 have went under

3 vs 14 11 of 20 have went under

4 vs 13 11 of 20 have went over

5 vs 12 14 of last 20 have went over

6 vs 11 11 of last 20 have went under

7 vs 10 12 of last 20 have went under

8 vs 9 10 of last 20 have went under
 

Master Capper

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ATS spread since 98 by conference


ACC 33-37-2
A10 14-16-1
Big 12 41-36
Big East 42-33-2
Big 10 56-39-2
Conf USA 14-21
Pac 10 33-39-1
SEC 33-43--2

Two Smaller Conference of note

Ivy 0 for last 6 ATS
MEAC 7-1 ATS
 

Master Capper

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Other trends since 98

Favorites are just 170-202-8 ATS
Double Digit Favorites 56-61-2 ATS
Favorites of 3 points or less 38-48 SU and 34-51-1 ATS

2 games have been Pickem's since 98 and both were won by the lower seed
 

jack straw

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The moneymaking MEAC! Good stuff, I now have an offical lean for the play-in game ;) What caught my eye was the Big-10's record. Their teams have been the best moneymakers in recent tourneys. It's a down year, but MSU, Illini and Wisco all have strength's that make them hard to beat. Can they keep the ATS torch and have a combined winning record ATS this year?
 

Master Capper

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MURRAY, Ky. -- The status of Murray State juniors Kelvin Brown and Adam Chiles remained uncertain Monday after they were arrested on drug charges.



The 12th-seeded Racers (28-5) play fifth-seeded Illinois (24-6) in the first round of the NCAA tournament Friday in Columbus, Ohio.



Sports information director Steve Parker said Monday he did not know whether Brown and Chiles were still on the team or whether they would play in the game.



Coach Mick Cronin is refusing to comment, Parker said. Athletic director E.W. Dennison released a short statement saying the school was looking into the arrests.



Brown, Murray State's second-leading rebounder, and Chiles, the starting point guard, were arrested Saturday.



Detective Eddie Rollins said the arrests came after officers responded to a 911 hangup call from the off-campus apartment where Brown and Chiles live.



Rollins said Chiles answered the door when officers arrived. Chiles told the officers that he and a female friend were the only people in the apartment, Rollins said. The officers asked if they could enter the apartment, and Rollins said Chiles invited them inside.



Police found Brown hiding in a closet, Rollins said. Brown was already facing a warrant for allegedly leaving a service station without paying for gas earlier this month, Rollins said.



Police obtained a search warrant for the apartment and found marijuana and drug paraphernalia, Rollins said.



Brown, 21, was charged with theft by unlawful taking of less than $300 related to the alleged gas station case, possession of marijuana and a second offense of possession of drug paraphernalia.



Chiles, 21, was charged with hindering prosecution, possession of marijuana and a first offense of possession of drug paraphernalia.



Both are free on bail.
 

Thegridiron

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MC, just wanted to get your thoughts on some possible upsets since I am working on my bracket sheet for work. Here are some games where I think a possible upset could occur:

UAB over Washington
Pacific over Providence
Neveda over MSU
Manhattan over Florida
VCU over Wake
South Carolina over Memphis
Arizona over Hall
Louisville over Xavier
UTEP over Maryland
Wmich over Vandy
UL Laf over NC State

Out of all these games what do you think are the best options? By the way I have been keeping a low profile here since Memphis started posting here, I tried to warn others that he buried a ton of people on another board and the facts are coming true here also.
 

Master Capper

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I can only guess that your asking me my thoughts on these games straight up and not the spread, so here goes:


UAB-Wash
This would not really be a huge upset, both teams love to press and this game should be a fast paced game with loads of scoring. Blazers are comparable to watching Nolan Richardson's Arkansas teams as they like to play the same up tempo and aggresive game and they have one of the strongest benches in the country. Blazers cannon rebound worth shit and are a average FT shooting team, one strong asset they have is that they are the oldest team age wise in the dance. UW will morethan likely have the crowd on their side once the fans get a site of little man (5'8) Nate Robinson going up for a dunk. Wash will run and press all day and have a solid 6th man. Huskies also cannot bound so the bottom line on this game is going to be who can break the press the best.

Pacific-Providence
I would be surprised if Pacific wins this game, they lack any inside game and on offense they turn the ball over too much. Providence should be able to drive the lane at will and get to the FT line alot.

Neveda-MSU
Neveda will need Snyder to have a awesome game to win this outright. This is far from Izzo's best defensive team and the Spartans can be very cloppy with the ball but they still have a ton of experience in the dance. This game more than likely will be hughly physical.

Manhattan-Florida
Hattan is a trendy pick so far and they do have a star player and shoot wel lat the line, but they are very small inside and have no depth if any of the bigs get in foul trouble. Physical teams usually hurt the Gators and I am not sure how physical Manhattan will be with the lack of bigs. Gators are one of the better teams at getting to the foul line but I have seen no team this year with as poor of shot selection as the Gators. SHould be a good game and Jaspers could win outright if they keep Florida off the line.

VCU-Wake
Dont see VCU winning outright, poor shooting team and not much depth. Hard to believe VCU was a number 2 seed in 1985.


SOuth Carolina-Memphis
Who will score of Carolina? With the loss of Howell their scoring on the inside was damaged. Cocks cannot shot at al lfrom the outside and they are very young.

Zona-Hall
Wouldnt consider this a upset, but Zona is possibly the worst defensive team in the country and Hall has trouble finishing off a team, PASS>

LOu-X
Pass for me, X has no inside game and Cards cant shoot from the perimiter. X is the hot team but Pittino is too good of a coach to go against.

UTEP-Mary
I would have to doubt UTEP has the horses especially with Riveria hurting.

WMU-Vandy
Vandy has a nice inside-outside game but when they are cold they can get run out of the gym by a fast offense. WMU more than likely can win this game.

ULLAF-NC ST
If NC State gets out to an early lead on this team it could get ugly, UL LAF struggles in the half court game and this is NC States strength. UL LAF will haveto turn this into a track meet to steal this one.

You didnt have one of the plays that I am looking at for a upset tomorrow.
 

Jedi

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Hey MC,

Any thoughts on Air Force/UNC? I have UNC as my top play for the first round. I was glad to see AF in the tourney, but their invite was, shall I say, questionable. I also think UNC's seeding was a little low. I see UNC winning by over 15 points so I think -7.5 to -8.0 is a gift.

Thanks
 

Master Capper

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Jedi,

I think the matchup you are talking about AF vs UNC is one of the strangest matchup's of the first round due to the contrasting styles that each team plays. If you go by power rankings then the line seems to bhe quite accurate as most power rankings show UNC winning on a neutraul court by 7 to 9 points. On the other hand, you pretty much know what each team is going to do Air Force MUST control the tempo and create a half court game that grinds the clock down, they do not have the athletes to get into a track meet with the Heels. UNC will want to take it to the Falcons from the opening tip by running and getting out to an early lead, if they can get a comfortable early lead then this will force Air Force to abandon the half court game and run the floor. At this point this is not a play for me, but if I do play it then more than likely I would have to favor the team that has the better athletes and comes from a much stronger conference.
 

Master Capper

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CHICAGO -- DePaul guard LeVar Seals will miss the team's first-round game in the NCAA Tournament Thursday because of a punch he threw Saturday.


NCAA rules call for an automatic, one-game suspension if a player is called for a flagrant personal foul for fighting, as Seals did after punching Cincinnati's Tony Bobbitt in the groin during the Conference USA tournament championship game.


Though Seals, DePaul's top reserve, said the blow was unintentional, Conference USA had little recourse but to confirm the suspension, deputy commissioner Brenda Wear said Wednesday.


NCAA rules prohibit a conference from changing the officials' ruling or lessening the severity of the penalty.


"It's not a conference rule," Wear said. "The conference is really prohibited by rule to review or alter the action."


DePaul was already preparing for Thursday's game against 10th-seeded Dayton as if Seals wouldn't be able to play. Seals averages just 3.8 points and 1.7 rebounds, but he plays almost 17 minutes a game and is one of DePaul's better defenders.
 

Master Capper

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RALEIGH, N.C. -- Chris Duhon took a jump shot and winced as he came back down to the floor. Such is life for a guard with a rib injury, one that could keep Duke's leader out of the lineup when the Blue Devils open the NCAA Tournament.

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While Duhon insisted he would play, Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski said the senior's availability would determined at game time. The top-seeded Blue Devils (27-5) play 16th-seeded Alabama State (16-14) on Thursday night in the opening round of the Atlanta Regional.

"What you saw him do out there today, that's all he's done," Krzyzewski said of Duhon's minimal work during an hourlong shootaround Wednesday. "He needs to do more than that if he's going to play."

The injury probably could have been avoided. Duhon hurt himself last Sunday diving for a ball in the final of the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament, a 95-87 overtime loss to Maryland that snapped Duke's five-year reign as tourney champions.

Duhon rammed into the bottom of a stanchion put in place to hold a stationary TV camera. Krzyzewski was livid that the stanchion wasn't padded, but he knows the damage has already been done: The emotional center of his team, a senior who averages 10 points a game and plays great defense, won't be the same again this season, "whether we're here for one game or we go all the way," Krzyzewski said.

Even though the Blue Devils are favored by 34 points against the Hornets, the coach said Duhon will play if he's healthy, and won't be held out because of the perceived weakness of the opponent.

"I have respect for Alabama State," Krzyzewski said. "You don't want to enter the tournament half-stepping it."

If Duke wins, it will play the winner of a game between eighth-seeded Seton Hall (19-9) and ninth-seeded Arizona (19-9). A Duke-Arizona game would be a rematch of the 2001 final.

Duhon, meanwhile, said he'll just have to get used to the heavy wrap he wore underneath his uniform during practice. He plans on playing.

"I have to learn to play through it," he said. "This is something that's going to be with me for a while and I just have to handle it the right way. I'll be ready to go, as much as possible. It's hopefully my last six games, and I don't want to spend them on the bench."

Other games in Raleigh involve the East Rutherford Regional. Fourth-seeded Wake Forest (19-9) plays 13th-seeded Virginia Commonwealth (23-7) and its 29-year-old coach, Jeff Capel. No. 5 seed Florida (20-10) goes against No. 12 Manhattan (24-5) in a game many have slated as a prime spot for an upset.

"The perception right now is if we win, it's almost an upset," Gators forward David Lee said.

While upsets in the 5-12 matchup are common, no 16th seed has ever beaten a No. 1. Duke rarely bows out that early anyway. The Blue Devils -- seeded first for the sixth time in the last seven years -- have made it out of the first weekend for six straight years. The Blue Devils have won three national titles, all since 1991, and are clearly considered among the favorites for a fourth.

Still, there is an inkling that this year's team might be missing an ingredient or two, especially after the most recent events.

The loss to Maryland came just 11 days after Georgia Tech beat Duke 76-68 to snap its 41-game home winning streak.


Chris Duhon injured his ribs diving for a loose ball in the ACC title game.(AP)
The two losses exposed Duke as a foul-prone team -- center Shelden Williams fouled out of his fifth game against Maryland -- that can be pushed around.

The Blue Devils also showed they may be too dependent on guard J.J. Redick's shooting touch. Redick, the team's leading scorer this season, struggled to a 6-for-17 shooting night against Maryland, and he is 21-for-68 over his last six games.

"People put their best athlete, their best defender on him," Krzyzewski said. "It can wear you down. It's a cumulative effect, and I think some of that has happened to him over the last week-and-a-half or so."

Then, of course, there were the injuries.

Also hurt against Maryland were Daniel Ewing (hand) and Luol Deng (ankle). Their injuries shouldn't keep them out Thursday, but Krzyzewski is concerned nonetheless.

"The main thing for me is not that we lost, but that we came out all banged up," he said.

Alabama State would like to capitalize on a team at less than 100 percent. Like so many other prohibitive underdogs, the Southwest Athletic Conference champs insist they're not just happy to be here.

"We're here to win," guard Malcolm Campbell said. "We didn't come here just to play or see Coach K."
 
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