Maryland vs SMU
I said this at the very beginning of the season and will reiterate it now. This is a very big game for Maryland. Not a conference game, but this is a competitive non-conference game, at night, and on national TV. In my opinion this is a huge game for this program. It is also big for the season bet of Ov 5.5 wins, because if they lose this one, they are in trouble with a brutal conference schedule coming up. They have to prove they can win this type of game, especially ahead of a trip to Ann Arbor. Locksley has been preaching all week that the students need to fill "The Shell". It will be interesting to see if they can pack the stadium and create a great atmosphere for this game. For me, this game is big because I want to see if the coaching staff can get this team up for this game. I still have my doubts about Locksley and this staff. They can recruit and get players to like them, but I have yet to see them get the players ready to do what they have to do. I know that sounds a bit stupid, but Maryland has a history of let downs in game they should win, and for me, that is about coaching.
Every way I look at this game I see points. Both teams have explosive offenses and both teams have issues on defense. MD has a couple injuries in the defensive secondary which is why I think we have seen the total jump up to 73 and the line drop to MD -2.5. SMU has a very good quarterback in Mordecai and a great WR in Rice. Maryland is going to be forced to play freshman in the secondary so I expect them to make mistakes, which includes penalties. They love to play man to man, but I do not think they are going to be able to do this tomorrow night. I think both defenses are going to have a bend but don't break mentality. Stops will be huge as will forcing FGs. Turnovers, obviously, will be a big deal. With a total of 73 you need a lot of perfection for that to go over, so both QBs will have to be great.
SMU's passing defense was really bad last year. It has looked fine this year, but they have not played anyone yet. If Lia is on, I do not think they will be able to stop this Maryland offense. The Charlotte game last week may have given them the confidence they need. I also think you are going to see some offensive sets and tempo from Maryland that you have not seen yet. They have been holding back the 4 WR sets as well as the up tempo offense, so I have to think we see it this week.
I would love to take MD in this game, but I have some concerns about their ability to stop the passing game, so I still believe the Over is the better play. I really liked it at 69 where I played it and still like it at 73. I think a bunch of turnovers or fgs is the only thing that could keep this game from going over. I think we see a marathon game with a lot of action. I am gong to say 42-38 Maryland, but would not be surprised if SMU won.
