math help

[Lucena]

have car at 11 to 1 to win nfc

100 to win 1100

i want to hedge

do i take sea at -180 for the nfc game

or sea +280 to win superbowl and hedge them in the superbowl game.

need some help here.

 

[tennessee tout]

i'd take the sea. +280 in the superbowl if it were me. if carolina wins you win your original bet plus this way you are +280 instead of -180. just my opinion

 

[amich1]

don't follow that advise.

You've only put up a hundred bucks.
You could win 11.

at -180 it would cost you 990 to hedge half or 550
that is too much

if you put 540 on the seattle money line.
your original hundred dollar bet wins you 560 if carolina wins (5.5 to 1)
or if seattle wins you profit $200 bucks (300 bucks on the ml minus your original carolina bet)

that is how i would hedge it if i were you.

 

[amich1]

if you take seattle +280 and they lose the superbowl, you lose both bets and aren't "hedging" at all.

 

[Killrus]

Just wait until halftime of the Car/Seattle game and make your decision there
Maybe Carolina will be winning and then you can make a Seattle bet to hedge.

 

[s_dooley24]

Just wait until halftime of the Car/Seattle game and make your decision there
Maybe Carolina will be winning and then you can make a Seattle bet to hedge.

Agreed..this game should be close so I would wait until half

 

[Lucena]

thanks for the advice

thanks for the advice

amich1

obviously if seattle win and i have them at +280 to win the superbowl

i would take the other team in the superbowl at probably -150 to -180

i wouldn't just take sea

come on now!

 

[Lucena]

went with

went with

sea +280 for superbowl for 357

if car wins nfc game i win 750

if sea wins nfc game i have them at 357 to win 1000 and will have to hedge the other way

not sure, but done already!

 

[amich1]

i understand that you would hedge seattle in sb too, just thought you wanted to lock in profit on your carolina play. play seattle + to win sb seperately if you like it.
seattle will win the game, you should definately hedge.

 

[maverick2112]

amich1

obviously if seattle win and i have them at +280 to win the superbowl

i would take the other team in the superbowl at probably -150 to -180

i wouldn't just take sea

come on now!

You screwed up if you hedged it like this............by the time you take Den or Pitt at -175 to -200 to win super bowl to win back the 357 you had on seattle you are not going to be ahead much at all...........for instance

you lost $100 on carolina already
you lost $357 on Seattle...if they lose
you would have to play the AFC team enough to get back your $457 at say -1.80 thats around $800 you would have to play......so Seattle wins you win $100 but lose $800 (afc) and $100 Carolina........so you win $100

Seattle loses you lose 357 +100 and win 444 for a net of -$13.............

If you were going to hedge you just hedge the one gm....this week..........you have $100 to win $1100 on Car and put enough on Seattle win win at least $300..........

I think Carolina wins anyway........