maybe Im the only one

NySportsfan

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who continues to win on saturdays and get my balls handed to me in a silver platter every sunday, if someone can pick these fkin games let me know and maybe Ill pay you Im serious, I try to go anti obvious pick and jacksonville blows up in my face, I take a shot with the piece of crap raiders and they blow up at the end, christ, is there anybody out there that can call these games on a consistent basis.....I dont see why a serious prof bettor would touch the nfl, bet freakin college, theres a degree of predictability to it, just my ranting, sorry, g luck to all the rest of the day

Mike
 

pel7

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same here,I went 4-0 saturday,and they were easy no sweat wins,today went 1-3 in nfl,**** the nfl,**** green bay,**** the giants and especially **** the eagles.
 

NySportsfan

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you're the guy I used to post and talk about mlb with the bullpens late in the year, and I watch you, you do well, that f**kin jaguar game took every ounce of restraint I had to not throw something and break my tv, these games just literally make me vomit, Im losing by going anti-consensus, its just sickening, really is, if theres someone that can pick these games with a degree of consistency please let me know, because Im literally befuddled, I sometimes force plays in college, but I always find great spots that are virutal "locks" because you just know the levels of some teams, nfl is just, I cant even describe, I dont remember it ever being this bad for me even a few years ago, maybe Im wrong and bitter, but thats what i feel

Mike
 

yyz

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Re: maybe Im the only one

NySportsfan said:
who continues to win on saturdays and get my balls handed to me in a silver platter every sunday,
Mike


That has been the law for 30+ years.

"Pay the man Sunday, with what you won on Saturday!"

Please....stay away from the NFL.


No Fuhking Loot!
 

bear

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FWIW..My first losing Sunday......today

FWIW..My first losing Sunday......today

2-5 and I didnt even post em up thankfully.

Yesterday was my first losing saturday this season. (7-9) RECKLESS and only because I'm up....I never play so many games.....................
I don't show profit every year but I do for most. This year I have quit for the day each time I was up after the early games .....no matter what.... Its a hobby to me and any profit Wins. Never turn a winning day sour by continuing if profit is there. All bets are the same ....no chasing ....no team has a 50% or 100% or 200% greater chance of covering than another........if we could isolate those we'd all be millionaires
Briefly Mike,
I have found: and so far its been working fairly well ...35 years......... that:

Anti-consensus will make you money.........be selective.....
Pick the games where the line maker has to create an overlay to achieve a close to 50- 50 game.....Example: Next week I'll be on Missouri + points to beat Oklahoma.........In a very public game the sooners beat the spread by 40+ points......... against a very good Texas team. That has to create the overlay next week. Public will be all over OK again Thats why I had Texas this week (didn't work) Texas A+M did!...........Same concept for the PROS. Look for an edge in the line based on recent performance. Colts looked too good today after torching TB (who had not given up a passing TD till MNF) That game was BBBIIIIIGGGGG NEWS...thus....... an overlay.... Hindsight is great aint it....that should have been my only play today!
Pros..............Early in the season
I Play logical early when there are a lotta games. Unless its a special situation like the Colts today. Anti Miami was my choice and it lost
try to go 2 for 3 or 3 for 4......... if win ...quit.............. Out of many factors, I emphasize anti-consensus at 4 PM (chasers are out in full force) and I skip Sunday night ....I have either Won by then or I'm probably chasing.

MNF.....this is about the time of year when I REALLY get ILLOGICAL and anti-consensus for MNF....people are falling in line and giving up on the anti-public thing right about now...Only 1 game on MNF. for all the marbles each week. who wins??

:shrug:
It aint easy....but its doable and I believe there are several here who turn a decent profit!

Oh Mike...........There are experts in here .......on certain teams, certain leagues........patterns, trends etc ....find them and use their information.... You'll get your 55%

gl
bear
 

casper

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bear good advice, nice post...i try to follow same rules, i do my share of straying, though...sometimes it's tough to stay disciplined but you have to do it--staying disciplined can be harder than picking a team ats... i like this quote "I skip Sunday night ....I have either Won by then or I'm probably chasing."...so true!!

nysports
 

casper

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sorry, was gonna say: nysports, the same thing has been happening to me too this year, shit i've had 2 profitable nfl weeks so far this year, but just keep chuggin, don't put too much on one game and don't expose yourself too much...if you're like me and plays dogs they haven't been hitting yet but they will
 

Uncle Vinnie

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Great advice bear! I couldn't have said it better myself. Your
betting technique is exactly the same as mine. It took me 15 years to develop the disipline to stick with this type of betting
stratagey. You have to look at these games as pure lines. What I mean is when you look at a game think about who "they" want you to take and look at the game from both sides. Then make all your normal capping assumptions and find the best value on the board. Usually this angle will put you on the anti concesus side of the board. But don't get me wrong anti-concensus is not always the side you want to be on.
Alot also rides on if a team has to win or not. Or really has somthing to prove. This is when you will find value in the favorites or pro-concensus.
But most important of what bear mentioned is NO ONE GAME IS OF MORE VALUE than the next. Wildly fluctuating your units per game is like double gambling. 1.) Gambling on the spread 2.)Gambling on whether you were right on the value of your play 1x, 2x, 3x, ect. I feel some sort of bet fluctuation is needed but is reserved for the pro. Point, don't bet 50 win 50 win 150 lose or even better 50 lose 50 lose 150 lose. Get my point. Your making a mountain out of a mole hill.

good luck and sorry about th spelling

UV :cool:
 

Got5onIt

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I feel you NYsports,

Playing college football is easier for me. I pull ahead on saturday, to only get blasted every Sunday. Last week was one of my worst NFL weekends ever. The redzone fumble by Priest Holmes and the history making Buccaneers Blowup cost me big $$$$$.
I vowed to stay away form the NFL for the rest of the year(yeah right:D ). I did so well yesterday I decided to just play a game or 2 today for some VERY light action. I normally play 4-7 games on Sunday not including MNF. I'll continue to play the NFL for VERY light action every weekend..........

Keep your head up, you're not the only one struggling with the big timers.:)
 

NySportsfan

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after all my bitching, sf came through for me for a nice pretty penny..........maybe there is hope in anti consensus, I will bet that way until i die, you just gotta be smart about it, but Ill be glad to side with the books, vegas doesnt have sportsbooks and theres not 5,000 offshores b/c people win money
 

Nick Douglas

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NYSF,

Careful fading the consensus too much. IMO books make money b/c people bet recklessly more than the fact that they can't pick games. I'd say better advice just might be to have a weekly goal and if you hit it by Saturday, then just take Sunday off.
 

Got5onIt

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Nick Douglas said:
NYSF,

Careful fading the consensus too much. IMO books make money b/c people bet recklessly more than the fact that they can't pick games. I'd say better advice just might be to have a weekly goal and if you hit it by Saturday, then just take Sunday off.

That's great advice.
The hardest thing to do once your goal has been achieved, is to have the ability to hang it up for the week. Greed's ugly little head shows up with a quickness!:D :D
 
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Nick Douglas

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Luniz,

Tell me about it. I am actually working on a column for the site that partially deals with this topic. The last two weeks I have been able to hit my goals by Saturday and either take Sunday off or just go with small action that was played earlier in the week for Sunday. For years I was terrible at securing my profit for a week or a day. I am trying to get better at it, but let me tell you it is hard.
 

bear

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Reachable goals .......differ

Reachable goals .......differ

As do the ways and means used to reach them!

For example one person may have a weekly goal and one may have a daily goal............................. My belief is that your FIRST goals should be to achieve success in lifes more serious matters.
1. Relationships
2. Security....home, job, positive cash flow allowing for extra $
3. Serious investments should be in winning arenas (real estate, blue chip stocks, learn how to write options....etc.)

Ask yourself........how much time do I spend on the computer???
Does it take time away from family, work at home etc.?????

When you are satisfied that your life is in order. Its time for weekly and daily gambling goals. Some are blessed and are good enough to do this for a living.....Not me....I needed the security and the sure things.........but I always gambled..in perspective.

gotta go for now ...will finish this little diatribe later

bear
 

the_fix_is_on

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Five score and seven years ago our fathers brought forth on this continent, a new sport, conceived in a library, and dedicated to the proposition that all teams are created equal.

Now we are engaged in a great handicapping war, testing whether that team, or any team so conceived and so dedicated, can long endure. We are met on a great battle-field of that war, known collectively as THE NFL. We have come to dedicate a portion of that field, as a final resting place for those who here gave their lives that that notion might live. It is altogether fitting and proper that we should do this. Jimmy the Greek would approve.

But, in a larger sense, we can not dedicate -- we can not consecrate -- we can not hallow -- this ground. The network executives, living and dead, who struggled here, have consecrated it, far above our poor power to add or detract. The world will little note, nor long remember what we say here, but it can never forget what they did here. It is for us the living, rather, to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they who fought here have thus far so nobly advanced. It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us -- that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the last full measure of devotion -- that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain -- that this football nation, under God, shall have a new birth of parity -- and that government of the rich, by the rich, for the rich, shall not perish from the earth. . .and parity shall live for ever and ever.
- ESPN, Fox Sports, CBS Sports, NFL Inc.
 
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