MC's NCAA Projections

[Master Capper]

Last week debuted my projections based on a formula that I had been puttering around with throughout the year and against the spread the formula went 34-17-1. I have tried this week to incorporate injuries into the equation and we shall see if this makes it better or screws it up since it's hard to gauge the impact of injuries.


Marshall by 1.1
WVU by 18.2
Fresno 11.0
LOU 22.4
USF 18.1
OKL 5.7
BC 9.1
Maryland 4.6
UCONN 2.2
GT 5.7
Ohio St 11.6
Pur 18.6
Mich 22.2
Tenn 6.7
ND 16.7
Mizzou 14.6
Kent 10.6
Vandy 18.0
CMU 1.2
Neb 5.9
Minn 5.2
Wisc 1.9
Col St 10.1
Tulsa 15.1
BYU 6.7
Tulane 10.6
Utah 6.0
Georgia 6.1
Clem 2.6
Reno 25.6
UAB 6.7
Texas 33.2
La Tech 18.0
EMU 7.9
Zona 13.5
USC 22.7
IWST 1.3
UCLA 3.9
ORST 3.1
TXTECH 34.7
OLEMISS 0.1
TCU 34.3
Bama 6.6
FLA 15.4
Oreg 15.1
Haw 14.9
FLATL 4.7
MTSU 8.6
ULLAF 12.0
ARK St 9.3
Miami 20.6

Rushing Dogs 1-6 last week
Navy
Mem
Ark
Cal
TXAM

Defensive Dogs 2-1 last week
Bama
Kansas
Aub
UCONN

Rushing Defense Mismatch 1-1 last week
SDSU over CSU

Pass Defense Mismatch 2-0 last week
zreno over NMXST

Most like high scoring games (OVERS) 1-1
Purdue-ILL
Kentucky-Vandy
BALLST-EMU

Most likely defensive games (UNDERS) 2-1
LSU-BAMA
AUB-GEORGIA

 

[Joe De]

get on tulane

look at your on numbers above for proof

another strong pick ...similiar to the cincy game last week
don't see these numbers but every 2/3 years

north texas +4 comes up as a laugher but the game above, tulane, comes up super strong laugher

mississippi ...strong play..their 10-2-1
ball st +6 ...strong play
memphis+19...i show them winning s'u and their due to beat tennessee...it's their turn
miami-fla...up to 21

navy+points ...looks like a cover as usual..they always cover against the holy boys
central fla+7' over uab comes as a cover

stay off of stanford
boston college_4'...

i've been testing a new system on totals..and hoping it's starting to pan out for the bowl games and rest of the season. been hitting on few but had a few disappointing losers

i'm on all games above
do you have anything SPECIAL????

 

[Master Capper]

Joe,


Tulane
Tucky Over
ARKST
IWST
Reno
Utah under
ECU over
Mem
Mary

 

[Master Capper]

That NW line keeps getting higher and higher as it is up to 19.5 now, the books must be getting hammered on OSU and they must think this is going to be arepeat of NW and ASU. It sure seems like alot of points for a above average team to be getting since OSU's offense is not exactly overwhelming. Anyone have any opinions on this game?

 

[Master Capper]

Any of the west coast guys have an opinion either the WAZZOU-ORE or STAN-OSU games? If I am correct this will be the first road game for the new Ducks QB and although Wazzou's defense sucks they are at home and have a solid offense. Also, anyone like Stanford on the road since the line is increasing? OSU has one of the worst defenses in the country and the Tree's have a pretty balanced offense that could control the clock to keep the Beavs offense off the field.

 

[AR182]

mc,

i'm not on the west coast..but close to it....

the oregon st/stanford game reminds me of the osu/az. game a few weeks ago with the way the line keeps rising....osu had 5 turnovers (?) & lost the game out right.....i may start looking into this game......

i'm leaning to wash. st. for the reason that you state.....may wait to see if line keeps rising....

fwiw, i like ohio st. to give n.w. a spanking for beating them last year........

good luck.

 

[Illini1]

MC,

Do you recommend playing all of the games in your original post, or just the 9 picks you recommended to Joe?

Thanks for all the great info all year long! I've been following your posts for a few months now....I just don't post much.

I appreciate the info!!

 

[Master Capper]

Illini1,

No I would never recommend anyone bet the board, the fifty some games listed are based on a program that I debuted last week and should only be used as a guide. The other listed items such as "rushing dogs theory" are not plays they are just based on practices that many of the old time services used back in the day to select their plays and I was given these ideas by a solid capper that many would know but he has since stopped posting due to a severe medical condition. The nine games that I listed are plays that stand out to me as possible value plays and I am also looking at WSU and Stanford as value plays.

 

[Smitty]

Any of the west coast guys have an opinion either the WAZZOU-ORE or STAN-OSU games? If I am correct this will be the first road game for the new Ducks QB and although Wazzou's defense sucks they are at home and have a solid offense. Also, anyone like Stanford on the road since the line is increasing? OSU has one of the worst defenses in the country and the Tree's have a pretty balanced offense that could control the clock to keep the Beavs offense off the field.

mc, i'm nowhere near the west coast, but this game really jumped out at me when i saw the line. stanford is 3-0-1 on the road and 5-1 as an underdog. they may not be the most talented team around, but they don't beat themselves with turnovers. i fully expect a good effort from them; an outright win would not be a shock.

biggest concern to me... both teams have their big rivalry game next week. again though, i'd like to think this is another edge to stanford, as they seem less likely to look past this week's game.

 

[Master Capper]

AR,


I have no doubts in my mind that OSU will win this game since all week all the news coming out of Columbus has been about this game being a payback for last year and there is also talk about how last year NW took many cheap and illegial shots at OSU players. In my neck of the woods OSU fans tend to be quite myopic and usually suffering from punch drunk love of the Buckeyes and most of these people are of the mindset that OSU is currently the best team in the country and if they played Texas or PSU right now they would easily beat them since they feel that they lost to those teams because of Troy Smith not being up to speed. Personally, I dont feel the same way since the bottom line is that they lost to Texas at home and when they played PSU, I thought Paterno's defense manhandled the Buckeyes. The line you got is awesome so I think your safe, but the locals have this line up to 22 which just seems extremely high.


Smitty,

I think Stanford may be worth a shot but I am wondering if Wazzou may be a better play?

 

[AR182]

mc....

thanks for getting back to me......

in the beginning of the week olympic had osu favored by 14.5 points......eventhough i thought it looked fishy i grabbed it......if you surf the various forums everybody that is betting that game is on n.w......i think that i may be the only one on the internet who is on osu.....& there are people stating that they are betting $1000's on n.w (don't know how true it is).......but the line keeps rising...last night some books had osu at 20....at 22 it is over the majic number of 21 so n.w. may be worth a stab....

last night i took wash. st......but am back & forth about stanford.....

good luck this week...

 

[JustFootball]

usf

usf

mc,
thanks for your work. just wondering why you wouldn't have usf as a strong play? i think they roll today over cuse and your number really seems to back it up.

 

[Smitty]

Smitty,

I think Stanford may be worth a shot but I am wondering if Wazzou may be a better play?

mc, too funny... i'm kinda the opposite on these games. i really like stanford, and i think wazzou may be worth a shot. as we get late into the season, i start to heavily factor ATS records into my handicapping. Wash St is 1-3 ATS at home, while Oregon is 3-1 ATS on the road, and 4-1-1 as a fav. so while i still think it's wazzou or nothing on this game, it's probably a no-play for me.

 

[Master Capper]

Justfootball,


USF would be the only way I would play this game since nearly every indicator would point towards USF winning by double digits. You have to wonder how Cuse will stop the run of USF, Cuse is one of the bottom 20% defenses in the country when it comes to stopping the run and USF may be the most potent rushing atack Cuse will face this year since USF is a top 15 program whenranking teams running games. Cuse's biggest strength is that they havew been able to stop teams from passing fairly well this year, but USF very rarely passes the ball they seem to rely on the old Tom Osborne school of run the ball all day and throw out a surprise pass here and there so Cuse's strength should not be a factor unless they build an early double digit lead and force USF to the air. Cuse has no strength on offense as they are a bottom 10% team in both passing and rushing the ball whereas USF is quite balanced on defense so they should be able to handle anything Cuse throws at them. Cuse does have the home field advantage and I believe they are also coming off a bye week but the Carrier Dome no longer has a signifcant HF advantqge.

 

[Master Capper]

Smitty,


Going to follow you on the Tree's and throw a little on Wazzou! I am wondering just how much effect the cold weather and possible rain showers will have an effect on Oreg new qb? If it rains (55%) chance then this game tends to favor the strong rushing game of WSU!

 

[Master Capper]

Yikes,,,I am thinking about taking Mich State today

 

[Smitty]

Yikes,,,I am thinking about taking Mich State today

:scared

only concern i'd have is mich st looking ahead to their matchup with penn st next week. probably a solid play though. if they grab a lead and make cupito throw the ball... :scared :scared

 

[Bigboss3114]

GOOD LUCK MC!!!!

 

[thom24ad]

MC

MC

I have plenty opinion on that game Northwestern. I am a Buckeye fan and I am telling now way they cover that much chalk. I see a single digit win by the Buckeyes.

Please refer to thread:
Northwestern @ OSU / Disgruntle Buckeye Fan

 

[Master Capper]

Thom,

Many good points in the post you referred to!


I must be getting the flu since another team that is in a downward spiral looks tasty to me and thats the Aggies of Texas!