Well, let's start with one of my favorite races of the year, the 9th at Belmont, the Met Mile. Attracts a field of 9 this year and a stellar field it is. If anyone wants to sell you a lock of the year in this race you are obligated to laugh directly in their face because as many as 6 horses could hit the wire together in this one.
Everyone wants to know if Azeri can run with the boys, sure she can, but just maybe not this bunch of boys, though I will not toss her just yet, the horses I will toss are the 4 and 7, they have just never shown quite enough speed to run with the rest of these, that leaves us narrowing down the field to 7 horses, normally I would have to pass a race like that, but like I said it's one of my favorite races of the year, so let's have at it.
Everyone is gonna want the lead here, everyone, and I think the 6 horse will probably get it, problem is that John Velazquez has really not shown an ability to control this horse as evidenced by the ride in the Carter Handicap at Aquaduct in April, he should have ran away with that race instead of getting caught past the quarter pole, great horse, but the wins he has are almost all by less than a length and against weaker fields, nonetheless he will probably set the early pace so were gonna need a smart jockey who can rate his horse just off that pace and come charging around the turn. The absolute king of that scenario is Pat Day who rides Azeri in place of regular moron Mike Smith whom somehow this incredible horse has been able to lug across the finish line several times despite his best effort to impersonate an anchor atop of her (no hard feelings from the Derby Mike). Still Pat Day will need his and her best effort to get Azeri into the winners circle, but make no mistake about it, they can pull it off and if for some reason the betting public lets this one go off at 5-1 or more I think that a serious overlay.
Moving on, and yes I know I am jumping around, but sometimes thats my style, #9 Funny Cide who returned one of my personal biggest scores at the race track ever in last years Kentucky Derby draws the outside and just does not have the running style to stay close and then get the win recently, a great run last year in the KD may have been his best effort and there is no shame in that, improvement in his speed figure last out offers hope for today, but I think the gutsy gelding comes up short today. I know, enough, who do you like here idiot? Well I have not seen enough of Belmont recently to know how the track bias is toward the rail, but if the early races show the inside is playing fair then the play will be on #1 Bowmans Band, now yes I am always willing to give a longshot more hope than he really has, but in this game if you don't do that then you will never come out ahead, I am always looking for a reason to bet on an underdog in any sporting event and this in no exception, this colt has the recent speed figures to hang with the best of them and gets a super positive rider switch to Jorge Chavez. He has hit the board 2 of 4 times at Belmont and has a win at this distance and a bullet 4f workout on May 29th. Trainer Allen Jerkens is no idiot as well, always a plus. If the inside is not playing fair, and I will try to update that if I am around during the races, then I will switch my play to #5 Gygistar, similar qualities as the 1 horse as far as speed and ability, a win at this distance and likes the track with 3 wins in 4 tries here at Belmont.
Look for this to be a close race between
#1 Bowmans Band
#3 Azeri
#5 Gygistar
#8 Pico Central
At this time I will give the nod to the 20-1 ML shot #1 Bowmans Band.
**DISCLAIMER** if the track is not playing fair to the rail runners then I will jump ship and go with the #5 Gygistar with every effort to get back here and update that if possible.
Good Luck and more plays to follow, I hope.
Penguinfan
Everyone wants to know if Azeri can run with the boys, sure she can, but just maybe not this bunch of boys, though I will not toss her just yet, the horses I will toss are the 4 and 7, they have just never shown quite enough speed to run with the rest of these, that leaves us narrowing down the field to 7 horses, normally I would have to pass a race like that, but like I said it's one of my favorite races of the year, so let's have at it.
Everyone is gonna want the lead here, everyone, and I think the 6 horse will probably get it, problem is that John Velazquez has really not shown an ability to control this horse as evidenced by the ride in the Carter Handicap at Aquaduct in April, he should have ran away with that race instead of getting caught past the quarter pole, great horse, but the wins he has are almost all by less than a length and against weaker fields, nonetheless he will probably set the early pace so were gonna need a smart jockey who can rate his horse just off that pace and come charging around the turn. The absolute king of that scenario is Pat Day who rides Azeri in place of regular moron Mike Smith whom somehow this incredible horse has been able to lug across the finish line several times despite his best effort to impersonate an anchor atop of her (no hard feelings from the Derby Mike). Still Pat Day will need his and her best effort to get Azeri into the winners circle, but make no mistake about it, they can pull it off and if for some reason the betting public lets this one go off at 5-1 or more I think that a serious overlay.
Moving on, and yes I know I am jumping around, but sometimes thats my style, #9 Funny Cide who returned one of my personal biggest scores at the race track ever in last years Kentucky Derby draws the outside and just does not have the running style to stay close and then get the win recently, a great run last year in the KD may have been his best effort and there is no shame in that, improvement in his speed figure last out offers hope for today, but I think the gutsy gelding comes up short today. I know, enough, who do you like here idiot? Well I have not seen enough of Belmont recently to know how the track bias is toward the rail, but if the early races show the inside is playing fair then the play will be on #1 Bowmans Band, now yes I am always willing to give a longshot more hope than he really has, but in this game if you don't do that then you will never come out ahead, I am always looking for a reason to bet on an underdog in any sporting event and this in no exception, this colt has the recent speed figures to hang with the best of them and gets a super positive rider switch to Jorge Chavez. He has hit the board 2 of 4 times at Belmont and has a win at this distance and a bullet 4f workout on May 29th. Trainer Allen Jerkens is no idiot as well, always a plus. If the inside is not playing fair, and I will try to update that if I am around during the races, then I will switch my play to #5 Gygistar, similar qualities as the 1 horse as far as speed and ability, a win at this distance and likes the track with 3 wins in 4 tries here at Belmont.
Look for this to be a close race between
#1 Bowmans Band
#3 Azeri
#5 Gygistar
#8 Pico Central
At this time I will give the nod to the 20-1 ML shot #1 Bowmans Band.
**DISCLAIMER** if the track is not playing fair to the rail runners then I will jump ship and go with the #5 Gygistar with every effort to get back here and update that if possible.
Good Luck and more plays to follow, I hope.
Penguinfan
