METS/CUBS... something worth trying??

[Randercity]

4 out of the last 9 CUBS games have been decided by 1 run... 5 out of the last 11 METS games have too. With LIEBER on the mound, a possible ailing APPIER facing him, is it possible another 1 run win happens here. I LIKE THE CUBS!! LIEBER has been unbelievable, and with them getting back on track by winning MONDAY, I see some confidence showing on TUESDAY. The METS are a very proud team however and won't go away easily. I see them giving their all to keep from losing thier sixth straight, and the CUBS possibly having to win this in the BOTTOM of the ninth.

With the way the CUBBIES have been scoring and the way LIEBER has been pitching, I FOR ONE, am seriously thinking of laying 10 units on the CUBS, and 10 on the METS +1.5 and risking the juice to hit the 1 run SWEEP!!!

Between the two, you have 50% of the last 20 games decided by 1 run. IF CUBS win by 1, you win $2000 based on $100 a unit. If CUBS lose, you drop $450, BUT, I'd be playing a normal 2 UNITS on CUBS anyway, so I'm only risking $160 more to win $1800 more.If CUBS win by more than 2, you lose $250 at worse. THIS is just one case, where I can see a possible advantage, PLAYING CUBS and TAKING METS +1.5. FINAL SCORE: CUBS 4-3

** I only suggest this IF you were planning on playing the CUBS anyway. Maybe I'm way wrong and this is SOME huge sucker bet, well if so, call me TOOTSIE POP!!

 

[phoenix566]

I like the Cubs today, and I agree that this play has merit. While the Mets keep losing, they usually do not lose easily. Heck, you been on a roll so I think it's worth a try

Think you can pick a nice 6 team parlay for us all??

 

[Code Red]

Actually, wouldn't it make more sense to bet the Cubs -1.5 and then bet the Mets money line? Consider, at today's line of Mets +136 and Cubbies -1.5 +140. On an equal $100.00 dollar bet each way, if the Mets win you are up $36.00, and if the Cubs win by more than one you are up $40.00. The only way you can lose here is if the Cubs win by one run. That seems to me to be a very narrow window of defeat.

 

[phoenix566]

Code,

In your example you would be risking 2000 to make 360 or 400. Similar to playing Pedro on a non-TB game. If you feel that Cubs will not win by 1 run, then it is a solid play. I am still leaning to a close game decided by one run, therefore would rather risk 450-600 to make 2000. Just my opinion.

phoenix

[This message has been edited by phoenix566 (edited 06-26-2001).]

 

[TexasBC6]

If you play one team -1.5 and the other team money line, you are betting that the favorite won't win by 1 run. Believe me, this has been thought of before. I have tried it and gotten burned. Because it is such a small payout, you have to hit such a high percentage that I don't believe it is profitable in the long run.

Think about this - if the fav does win by exactly 1 run, you are staring a double loss right in the face. If you bet $1000 both ways, you just dropped 2 grand. If you win, you make about $300-$400. You have to hit about 7 in a row to make any money at this. A couple of one run wins in a row and you are down big. GL in whatever you play.

------------------
-Tex

 

[Never Caught Up]

I put the pencil to this and agree with Phoenix and Rander. This might have merrit in this game. Normally I would feel like I was just giving the man unnecessary juice, but here is an example based on 100 to make it simple to figure.

Play CHC 3 units @ -155
Play NYM + 1.5 1 unit @ -155

CHC lose -365
CHC win by 2 or more +145
CHC win by 1 +400

This equates to CHC @ about -210 instead of -155 with good shot at nearly a triple payoff.

In my opinion risking 365 on this wager is a better risk than wagering 380 on Pedro to win just 100. Like Phoenix said, it only makes sense if you believe the Cubs are the play.

[This message has been edited by Never Caught Up (edited 06-26-2001).]

 

[phoenix566]

Just pulled the trigger:

Cubs -58
NYM +1.5 -55

-275 or -290 to win 1000

GLTA who play this game whatever you decide to do. Thanks for the nice thinking 'outside the box' on this one Rander.

 

[Never Caught Up]

I may have misfigured something above, but here it is real world because I just played it using these figures.

CHC 930 / 600
NYM +1.5 310 / 200

Net CHC 730 to win 290 or 800

Basically it amounts to a nickel play on the Cubs at -146 with the payoff reduced to 290 if they win by 2 or more and raised to 800 if they only win by one. I like it.

 

[Randercity]

Here's how I played it... Figuring JOE PUBLIC would be betting the CUBS, I played them last nite at -145, and hoped the line would go up, and it has, to -160. So I saved a little in juice... not going for broke, gonna leave money on the CUBS side, my play for the game.

CUBS -145 8x (1160 to win 800)
METS +1.5 -150 6x (900 to win 600)

 

[Randercity]

Wagering $20.00 to win $1,517.42 Parlay #930572 contains the following 7 Propositions

Date League Wager Description (75.871 to 1 Odds) Cancel Wager
6/26/2001
16:05 MLB RL-ATLANTA -1.5 (+ 100) Listed
RL-ATLANTA (J BURKETT) vs RL-PHILADELPHIA (N FIGUEROA)
6/26/2001
17:05 MLB CHI WHITE SOX 0 (-105) Action
CHI WHITE SOX (R BIDDLE) vs MINNESOTA (J SANTANA)
6/26/2001
11:20 MLB CHICAGO CUBS 0 (-160) Action
NY METS (K APPIER) vs CHICAGO CUBS (J LIEBER)
6/26/2001
16:05 MLB RL-FLORIDA -1.5 (+ 100) Listed
RL-MONTREAL (M THURMAN) vs RL-FLORIDA (B PENNY)
6/26/2001
19:15 MLB SAN FRANCISCO 0 (-115) Action
LOS ANGELES (K BROWN) vs SAN FRANCISCO (S ESTES)
6/26/2001
16:05 MLB Point Total Over 10.5 (-125)
CLEVELAND (C NAGY) vs NY YANKEES (A HERNANDEZ)
6/26/2001
19:05 MLB Point Total Over 10.5 (-125)
TEXAS (R HELLING) vs ANAHEIM (M WISE)


Here you go... I like the number 7!

 

[Code Red]

True, that does make sense now that you explain it. I do like the odds of winning but you're right, the payoff really isn't that good.

Perhaps in games at say, Coors Field, it would work better as so many runs are scored that there are probably not as many games decided by one run. Something to think about.

 

[Randercity]

The parlay was haphazardly done... last second thing. I only capped the CUBS game, so the others were just quik picks so to speak, and not officially playing them. Like PHOENIX said, I've been hot, so why not? I STILL can't pull the trigger and go $100 spot on one of those though...