METS/REDS Over 9.5 -120 - These clubs fell ? a run short of this exact same posted total yesterday, but this time I look for them to go over the hump. The Over is still a solid 25-16, 61.0% here at the new Great American Ball Park this season, with an average total score of 10.48 runs per game. While Graves has pitched much better lately, his last 3 starts have all come on the road. The converted reliever has been terrible in this stadium, going 1-3 with a very high 6.75 ERA and a 1.52 ratio. Opposing home batters are hitting .304 off of him. He is facing a Mets offense that has slowly improved since committing to youth, as they are averaging 5.33 runs per game in their last 6 games, scoring at least 7 runs in 3 of those contests. They seemed to appreciate these dimensions in their first game ever here yesterday, pounding out 14 hits while scoring those 7 runs. Trachsel has actually pitched very effectively this season, going 7-5 with a losing club while posting a decent 4.17 ERA. However, you may be able to add a few runs to that ERA in this stadium, and that should be enough to push this game safely Over.
