miami/bgsu mac title game play.............

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gman2

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4 unit........0-1 (-4.4 units)
3 unit........1-0 (+3.0 units)
2 unit.......18-10 (+16.18 units)
1 uint.......29-27 (+1.61 units)
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ytd..........48-38 (+16.39 units)
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3 units......bowling green (+7) over miami

not even bothering with a big "personnel" write-up for this game
or what the teams have to do. its the same as last meeting.

*i do not care if the line moves to +7.5
*i do not care if the line moves to +8.0
*i do not care if the line moves to +9.0
*i am glad to take a 3 unit stand on +7 against my book. playing this very much on principle. i dont need to be enticed by a half point here or there. i knew what i was going to play before the line came out. its nearing the end of the season. im up a good amount. i am eschewing line-shopping or waiting for movement on this game.

ill be the first one in line to take a stand on bgsu for better or worse.

miami is on a roll. after stumbling vs iowa in the opener, they havent been touched.

ok its all good.
but when did bgsu become garbage at home?

i guess the falcons averaging 47.3 ppg L2 yrs at the doyt is suddenly pedestrian.

bgsu 15-1 L16 straight up at home

falcons havent lost at home by more than a TD in almost 5 yrs.

line movement and line shopping aint gonna matter here. either bgsu hangs in this game or miami will roll again.

(edit: volfan lean bg/under, lol) .... this is the linesmaker telling me that he is much smarter than me. he is spitting in my face calling me a sucker, telling me that miami is a so much of a fu/cking juggernaut that everything bgsu has accomplished at home the last few years means jack shit. this game is linesmaker telling me that miami is so much of a fu/cking juggernaut that it doesnt matter where they play, we'll set the line at 7 again and miami will cover.

my response:
ive got 660 bucks that says im well aware that miami is pounding the shit out of teams right now, but bgsu gets it done in the revenger at doyt perry. if brandon's team gets ripped apart in the revenger on their own field, then i will donate 660 bucks to my book with a smile on my face and i will even dress up the envelope i put the 660 in with a nice green and red bow-tie for the holidays-- that way it will look all festive and cute. i dont plan on having to go shopping for that bow-tie though.

oh yeah- did i mention no road team has ever won the mac championship game (even thought marshall was a chalk in toledo and western michigan was a 7 point chalk in marshall. both teams lost outright)

also....ive been reading a lot of "miami has the way better defense". while miami defense is solid, both teams have almost identical defensive numbers (18th/19th in the country in scoring defense) and the difference in total defense between miami and bgsu is just 15 yards/gm in favor of miami. stats for the first game were almost identical.

earlier meeting was statistically even...miami put up about 375 yds, bgsu put up 350...falcons ran the ball very well.. harris and falcons fumbled an absurd 5 times (including a few times in the red zone) and missed a FG. thats as bad as ive ever seen josh harris play. simply dont see it happening again
 
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gardenweasel

gardenweasel

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"the bunker"
well said

well said

a compelling argument....most,i think,will look at the recent miami,oh destructions......but,points taken......

my first instinct is that the public will lean to miami.....maybe i`m wrong..

but a nice write up....you got my attention....
 
gardenweasel

gardenweasel

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"the bunker"
i`m seeing

i`m seeing

just the opposite....looks very much to me like bowling green might be the anti-public play....

miami has been impressive on national t.v.....the relatively easy win over b.g earlier in the year....

i think the linesmakers are being smart....making the public pay an expensive price to take the higher profile redhawks....

the more i peruse the net,the more miami,oh. touting i`m seeing....

i think the 7 looks very appealing....
 
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gman2

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Re: i`m seeing

Re: i`m seeing

gardenweasel said:
just the opposite....looks very much to me like bowling green might be the anti-public play....

miami has been impressive on national t.v.....the relatively easy win over b.g earlier in the year....

i think the linesmakers are being smart....making the public pay an expensive price to take the higher profile redhawks....

the more i peruse the net,the more miami,oh. touting i`m seeing....

i think the 7 looks very appealing....
Click to expand...

funny you said that above. i just posted the same thing to nickelback in hellah's thread. i capped this game at bgsu (-3) so the line so surprised me that i felt like a square for grabbing the points. im seeing a lot of "miami gonna destroy bg" kinds of posts. aint gonna happen imo.

gl weasel
 
S

Statman02

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Jan 29, 2000
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like the Falcons too.......lets see RPI rankings: Mia # 17 BGSU # 9

since 99
BGSU home off ats win 9/2.......off su & ats win 7/1
any post season home dog off win 15/5
any post season away fav off win 7/17
 
B

boilermaker

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GMan, I'll be taking the points with you. Couldn't believe the line when it came out. I've been a sucker before and if that is what this line is I'll be sucked in again. 2 very evenly matched teams. With the 1 at home getting 7 points. I'll take em.:D Good Luck to us.
 
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gman2

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also added this prop for one unit:
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cole magner over 7 receptions (-110)
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this kid is money in big games, and its uncanny how harris seems to look for him whenever he needs a 3rd down conversion or someone to make a big catch across the middle. hes not bgsu's most explosive receiver, but he is unbelievably reliable and doesnt drop anything. plus, the YAC or amount of yards dont enter into this prop. the falcons love to throw him quick 5 yd stop routes and flanker screens that almost serve as "running plays".
in bowling greens 4 biggest games this year, magner has caught 7 or more balls.

at purdue (8 for 127)
at ohio state (13 for 168)
vs northern illinois (7 for 100)
at miami (11 for 76)

id be amazed if magner doesnt catch at least 8 passes. that offense finds ways to get him the ball and lots of defenders just concede the quick hitter and then try to eliminate any YAC. plus harris has a ton of faith in him in clutch situations. you look at him and youre like "how the fu/ck does this small white kid from alaska catch all these passes". the kid is simply very good.
 
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H

Hardy

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You sure got me on the fence here now. Think I will just play the UNDER.........:shrug:
 
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IamAterp

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Defense

Defense

Gman, really respect your opinion and was wondering how you rate each teams defense in this matchup? I have seen a lot written about both teams' offense and would like to hear your opinion on how they match up on the other side of the football...thanks a lot
Terp
 
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gman2

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i just made an edit to my original post and added some stuff abot defense.

your post is valid because, ultimately, someone is going to have to consistently stop someone else to win the game. i think we all know both teams are loaded on offense.

im of the opinion that miami is better against the run than bgsu
conversely,
bgsu has the better secondary than miami does

that being said, both teams had success against one another the first meeting, even though a lot of points werent scored.

miami lets up less than 100 yds on the ground, but bgsu rushed for 180 yards on them and did so in a variety of ways. (delays, counter-draws, quarterback draws, sprint-out options)

bgsu has a strong secondary and theyre athletic in the secondary. roethlisberger did have success (19-28 the first time around) and miami burned bgsu one time on a 50-yd completition in the 1st minute of the 2nd half last game. to me, that play COMPLETELY changed the game. miami was up 14-10 and bgsu was doing more on offense to that point. but miami hit that bomb 0:30 seconds into the 2h, scored a TD a few plays later, and never looked back.

honestly, both teams are going to move the ball. both teams run as good an offensive scheme as youll see. that doesnt necessarily mean both defenses are bad. both teams will let up some yds but then lock down in the redzone and force FGs instead of TDs all game.

all in all, i think miami has a slight defensive edge just because they stop both the run and pass pretty well. bgsu stops the pass well but sometimes stuggles with the run. but for anyone to say either team is vastly superior to the other on the defensive side of the ball is kidding themselves

miami 18th bgsu 19th in nation is scoring defense
miami 15 yds better than bgsu in total defense
awfully similar
 
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I

IamAterp

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Matchup

Matchup

I think all signs point to a BG cover in addition to moneyline value.
BG has more at stake- they need a victory to wrap up the MAC's second bowl spot. They're also playing at home with revenge factor which is another huge plus for them. I know that the game is played on the football field so those intangible factors may be useless. However, on the field, BG has a quarterback who can get it done on the ground and through the air. With the weather playing a factor tonight in the passing game, having a mobile QB can be a huge advantage. I expect Harris to be more prepared for the Miami O. defense this game - less turnovers. Miami has a distinct advantage in the passing game and according to gman a slight edge on defense. However, the Falcons should be able to cash in at home and control other facets of the game- special teams, running the ball and limiting their mistakes, keeping the game close and laying it all on the line tonight..... BG +7 looks like the play to me
 
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