Miami-OH Redhawks -9

[JCoverS]

Line moved against me just before I could get down at 8.5, but I don't think it will matter. The Redhawks have certainly struggled offensively, not even breaking the 40 point barrier their last two outings. Also, this will be their 4th game in 9 days which doesn't exactly inspire confidence. So why in the world are they laying almost double digits to Wright St., who comes into this game fresh off a victory over Ball St? Well, Wright State has had one of the largest home/road dichotomies in NCAA basketball over the years. I think it rivals the likes of the USF Dons out in the WCC and that is really saying something. Go back and check your sports almanacs if you don't believe me. Teams like this tend to overperform at home (example: last Saturday's win over Ball State) and rarely stay competitive on the road. I'm not saying that you will always find value betting on these types of teams at home and fading them on the road every game, but Wright State and the USF Dons are certainly on my list of teams that I will never even think about betting on away from home, no matter how enticing the line looks. It's fade them or pass. Tonight, I have to lay my money against Wright St. Much is expected out of this Miami-OH team, with so many returning starters and points production back on the team this year. I still believe this team to be one of the best in the MAC. Charlie Coles is a legendary coach and I truly feel he gets his team to play up to their potential tonight, betting that their last two poor performances were an anamoly and not the norm.

Good Luck to All,

-JC

 

[loophole]

not sure i agree with your take on wright st. yes, they're a bad team no doubt, but over the last three season i make them 11-11 ats in lined road games. they have played mia o the last four years home and away, and have covered every game, including a five point loss in oxford in '01 with a much worse team. they have two solid srs in doliboa and hollins (think those names are right). biggest question mark is how fast their freshmen will develop. mia o appears to be struggling despite a large numer of returning lettermen, and with a low scoring contest expected, i'd have to side with the 9- points. however, i'll probably stay away as i have seen a lot of players on wright today but the line has moved a point the other way. i'm always leery of those setups. g/l w your play.

 

[JCoverS]

Thanks Loop!

Thanks Loop!

Hey Loop,

Thanks for actually looking those stats up for me. That is interesting. I didn't bother actually looking into their ATS numbers over the years, Wright State's home/road dichotomy is just something I have sensed or perceived in following basketball closely over the years. It looks like my perceptions aren't actually right on target, when you truly look at the numbers. Oh well, I still believe overall they are a poor road team and Miami will win handily tonight by 12-15. Agree with you on the line movement, I think it bodes well for the Miami-OH side tonight.

Thanks alot for your reply. You are one poster on this board that I will always look to see your thoughts in NCAA hoops. Where have your plays been the last couple of nights? Anything jump out at you on tonight's card?

Good Luck to All,

-JC

 

[loophole]

thanks for the kind words, jc. as i mentioned earlier in hoops' thread sac st +5- probaly will be my only play tonight. g/l

 

[JCoverS]

Record Update

Record Update

Guess I will start posting a record, even though I probably won't post many plays. I am trying to be ultra-selective, looking for certain situations. Lack of selectivity has been a nemesis of mine for years. We'll see if it helps this year or not. It really is difficult to swallow when you throw out winners and keep losers. Anybody else have any ideas to share on how they weed through a huge card? It sure seems to be a fine line to walk between betting too many games and over-selectivity.

After tonight, NCAABB posts YTD: 3-0

Maybe some will say this Miami-OH cover tonight couldn't be handicapped or this one was a lucky cover. I certainly understand where that type of statement could be made and I wouldn't try to change your opinion, but I humbly disagree. That is what poor road teams do....wilt in the 2H. As for me, I am still keeping Wright State on my "pass or fade when on the road/pass or support when at home" list of teams.

Good Luck to All,

-JC

 

[gman2]

jcover:

dont 2nd guess yourself or say miami didnt deserve to cover. nonsense. they were up by double digits with still 11:00 to go in the 2h. i whole-heartedly agree that wsu is a dynamite fade away from the nutter. that program just isnt the same away from home. nice work

g