Miami/providence (trap-game)

[MR. LOCK]

Providence +4 or more

This game has all the earmarks of a trap.
Miami is 7-1 at home
Providence is 1-5 on the road.
The line has moved from 2.5 to 4 and is climbing

I did a little research on this game this is what I found.
Providence has had 7 days to prepare for this game. This is a very big advantage and the main reason why I'm betting Providence. If all things were equal I wouldn't touch this game.

The visitor is 5-0 SU in the last 5 meetings.

Providence is 2-3 at Miami in the last 3 years.

This is a 6:00 game local time. I'm waiting until 5:50 and take Providence all the points I can get.

Good Luck
MR. LOck

 

[THUNDER]

mr lock your reasoning for a trap is providence has done well in the past against miami, this providence team could have a month to prepare they do not have a answer for rice or jones also miami will dominate the boards, you cannot coach athletic ability nor size also in the past prov played much better on the road. that is not the case this year. by the way what is a trap. if you cap a game it is capped jmo gl

 

[MR. LOCK]

This game is a trap because all and I mean all the Chalkbettors are pounding Miami. On the surface Miami should win by 10. If you dig deeper like I did you will no that's not true.

 

[dr. freeze]

anyone who calls a game a "trap" says a lot about how they gamble

 

[MR. LOCK]

anyone who calls a game a "trap" says a lot about how they gamble

I gamble to Win!! $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

 

[The Big Tease]

This is good for discussion.....

I totally agree in a trap theory. That may not be the correct verbiage, but all I am saying is that if I take 10 lines that look a bit shady. I guarantee that I will hit 60% of them. I truly believe that Vegas wants public on a certain side, and the other side is the money maker. Just ask Nickelback and GMoney. I can predict their plays before they even post em. I can predict Volfans most of the time too. Thats why they are 3 of the most respected cappers in this forum. That is how you bet college hoops. You take those teams that are a little short on talent and they are playing at home. The betting public will see a small line and take the better team. The smart money is on the motivated home team.

I agree with the term trap.....some may not. But I have completely thrown out capping games. I only look at what lines look a little shady and gbet the other way.

 

[dr. freeze]

not necessarily.....you cant hit 60% playing pure contrarian.....no way Jose.....

most people only look at one or two angles when looking at a game....many people only pick the team they are familiar with...others will live and die with trends which may or may not have any implication to a game.....

gotta look at the whole picture......then pick your winner....that is how you win....

can't get caught up in playing the same angle, contrarian, chasing steam, or whatever every time.....that way doesn't work....

look at everything you can, realize that these are humans playing, coaching, and reffing the game, and make your play.....

i also tend to think that some people have it, and some people dont when it comes to picking winners.....and obviously most dont.....and i personally take heed at anyones picks unless i see a detailed, precise record that they keep.....

 

[THUNDER]

tease we are not the betting public and if you cap a game and the #s come out a certain way. that is ones play a good capper does not say vegas is trying to get money one way so i will take the other. now if i cap a game and lose was it a trap. now i took lsu and clemson last night 2 qualityteams catching at home playing 2 teams with more talent on the road did i get trapped no i capped the games wrong i was on the wrong side. when i see some one say a game is a trap, like prov tonight explain it. should prov be favored -no way miami edges prov in every way now can prov win sure they can. now i have seen many times when teams have long lay-offs they shoot poorly and come out lethargic more often than coming out sharp. everytime i lose a wager i feel like i got trapped but in reality i just took the wrong side.

 

[The Big Tease]

thats where we differ. I will take what i know about basketball and make my own line. instead of looking for value, i will go the other way.

EXAMPLE: I have capped the Michigan and Illinois game tonight, and I came up with Illinois -8. The line is anywhere from 11-13. I will take Illinois, in the idea that Vegas wants us to be on Michigan. I will bet this one pretty big. In fact it is my strongest play since the Oregon St-Washington St game about a week ago.

My motto is that vegas doesnt give gifts, and it is true. The line is there for a reason, and it aint to get even money, I dont care what anyone says.

 

[THUNDER]

tease gl and very different way of capping- by the way i do not know a book that would not love to get even money on every side. and if the illini are that big of a play for yo i hope you win

 

[goldcupsports]

Sharp money was the reason for the big move. went up 1? points on one move. It is not a public move fella.

 

[MR. LOCK]

thats where we differ. I will take what i know about basketball and make my own line. instead of looking for value, i will go the other way.

EXAMPLE: I have capped the Michigan and Illinois game tonight, and I came up with Illinois -8. The line is anywhere from 11-13. I will take Illinois, in the idea that Vegas wants us to be on Michigan. I will bet this one pretty big. In fact it is my strongest play since the Oregon St-Washington St game about a week ago.

My motto is that vegas doesnt give gifts, and it is true. The line is there for a reason, and it aint to get even money, I dont care what anyone says.

I agree 100% with your motto. There are certain games Vegas knows whitch way the public is going to bet. To add more incentive they will give you a unreal line. Then Wam Boom you lose. The trap has been set. MIami on paper should be at least a 8 point favorite. This line is too good to be true. The trap has been set.

This is only a PHILOSOPHY I total agree with you. Not everyone has the same philosophy. Whatever philosophy works. Stick with it.

MR. LOCK

 

[goldcupsports]

With my numbers I have it @ 3?. Which at 4 might be a good play. Would not be shocked to see this game land on 3

 

[goldcupsports]

EXAMPLE: I have capped the Michigan and Illinois game tonight, and I came up with Illinois -8. The line is anywhere from 11-13.

when you figure your numbers do you include homecourt advantage? Illinois in my ratings gets a 4 -4? which would make a opening number of 12 -12?. Game seems pretty close to the number IMO

 

[NySportsfan]

Good thread here valid points on both sides.....The reality is, everyone has their own system, and nobody knows what really is behind the games....Im not saying they are fixed, Im sure they arent, but there have been dozens and dozens of games, I have seen a line and said wow, that cant be right, usually where the favorite is laying too many points then they should......also happens in college football often I notice.....a good example is ole miss @ alabama in col ftball....ole miss at the time was hot and I think bama was cold, ole miss may have even been ranked #24 or so.....meanwhile everyone on this board had ole miss getting a whopping 10.5 pts......they throw that hook after you, thinking most average joe shmuck will say, wow I can take ole miss and even if i lose by 10 ill still win the bet, the reality is, for them to move it past a key number, they usually know something, IMHO......I agree with bigtease generally, vegas doesnt give gifts, if they did thered be no sports betting or vegas! more people see mich +13 and say wow look at michigans conf record and im getting 13 pts, usually the majority on a side fails, but of course theres no perfect system....sorry for my rambling and format, thats just the way i type kind of fletcher-like in shorthand, not a big paragraph guy on message boards i like typing my own way

g luck to everyone

Mike

 

[NySportsfan]

meant in that 1st few lines, favorites laying too many points, when they SHOULDNT be, not should........also, ck out south carolina tonight big tease, i like that one heavily as i have seen a few "interesting" things on that game that look quite fishy.....g luck to all

Mike

 

[The Big Tease]

yea i add home court advantage as 4 point (roughly) I still only have michigan getting 8 points. if the game were at michigan tonight, it would be a pickem. (and i think that would probably be about right. something isnt right about this line to the public eye.

michigan just now starting to get publicity for their huge winning streak and then vegas throws them out there as a 13 point dog to a team that has overachieved all year. somethings up, and it is an illini blow out

 

[MR. LOCK]

Re: Miami/providence (trap-game)

Providence +4 or more

This game has all the earmarks of a trap.
Miami is 7-1 at home
Providence is 1-5 on the road.
The line has moved from 2.5 to 4 and is climbing

I did a little research on this game this is what I found.
Providence has had 7 days to prepare for this game. This is a very big advantage and the main reason why I'm betting Providence. If all things were equal I wouldn't touch this game.

The visitor is 5-0 SU in the last 5 meetings.

Providence is 2-3 at Miami in the last 3 years.

This is a 6:00 game local time. I'm waiting until 5:50 and take Providence all the points I can get.

Just bet! I have providence +5 (boughy a point).

I may be wrong or I may be right.Let's see what happens.
Mr. Lock

Good Luck
MR. LOck

 

[Jedi]

Mr. Lock -

Personally I don't beleive in traps . . . Vegas wants equal money on both side and they get the juice. Thats the whole point, no matter who wins Vegas earns money. JMO GL

Jedi

 

[MR. LOCK]

I dodged the Trap

I dodged the Trap

Miami closed at 3.5. They win by 3. This game was a trap!

MR. LOCK