Michigan International Speedway is a big, smooth track that offers lots of room for racing. For much of the race, the drivers are racing the track more than each other?they try to find the better line, then adjust, adjust, adjust to get that perfect set-up for the charge to the end. This often creates a race with few cautions that rewards those with the best fuel mileage in the final stretch.
At this point in the game, there is no sure way to predict 1) if there will be many cautions in the second half of the race or 2) who will have the best gas mileage. That makes things a little dicey for fantasy owners. Just two races ago at Lowe's Motor Speedway, many owners saw what could happen to their fantasy racing points when things boil down to fuel mileage. The one good thing, however, is it opens the door for the sleeper picks.
Favorites
Whether the race comes down to fuel mileage or not, it is hard to win if a driver is not in the right position. What better place to be than in the front? The Roush-Fenway Racing and Joe Gibbs Racing teams are the best at doing just that at Michigan and the sister two-mile, unrestricted intermediate California Speedway. However, no fantasy owner will want to count out any of the Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolets given their current dominance.
Matt Kenseth rarely misses the setup on a two-mile unrestricted, intermediate speedway. For his career at Michigan, he rarely finishes outside the top 10 and he has two victories on this smooth track. His 13th in the rain-shortened 2006 Michigan 400 snapped a six-race top 10 streak there, but he rebounded to pick up the August victory and then also won the February race at California. Equally impressive, Kenseth has finished on the lead lap in all but a single event at Michigan, and to finish first, a driver must first finish.
When Tony Stewart finds the right rhythm at a track, he puts up great numbers. Such is the case at Michigan. It took him only three starts to earn his first win there, and entering Sunday's race, he has seven top-10s in his last nine tries. He picked up a third there in August after being wrecked in the June event. He picked up where he left off earlier this year with an eighth at California on a track that is very similar in layout.
Dark Horses
At a track like Michigan, the dark horses take on a whole new level of importance. On this course, mediocre cars can get out front late in the race by a variety of means. Sometimes it is courtesy of pit strategy and other times it is by fuel mileage, which helped Jeremy Mayfield get to victory lane in 2005. Last year, rain and a fast pit stop helped Reed Sorenson make a charge at the win, though he eventually settled for fifth.
Momentum can carry a driver a long way in the NASCAR Nextel Cup Series. Over the last six races, few are hotter than Ryan Newman. He has two runner-up finishes in a row after sitting on the pole at both Dover International Speedway and Pocono Raceway. In addition, he earned a fourth at Darlington Speedway and top-10s at Richmond International Raceway and Talladega SuperSpeedway earlier this year. Newman has not had a top-10 at Michigan since he won two consecutive races there between 2003 and 2004, but he has four top-20s in his five most recent starts. He will get back into the top 10 there this week and if circumstances fall his way, he could be the surprising victor.
In just his first career start for Team Red Bull, Brian Vickers raced hard at California and earned a well-deserved top-10, which was the first for Toyota. While the No. 83 Camry is by no means a guaranteed contender anywhere, the team has gotten better in recent weeks. Vickers is more consistently making races these days and was fifth just last month in the 1.5-mile unrestricted, intermediate speedway of Lowe's Motor Speedway. He likely will make Sunday's field and has a shot to crack the top 10.
Avoidance
While Jack Roush definitely knows how to field solid entries at Michigan?three of the last five races have been won by a Roushketeer?some of his teams are questionable this week. With momentum meaning so much in the Nextel Cup Series, there are two of Roush's drivers who need to be left off the rosters.
Greg Biffle can give any fantasy owner five reasons to put him on the roster this week. He won there in both August 2004 and June 2005 and has since earned three consecutive top-10s. However, potential owners heard a similar story before he raced at California, a track he dominated in 2006. This year, he was mediocre at best and never led a lap. That inconsistency is what makes him a tough decision for Sunday's race. Unless his practice numbers indicate otherwise, leave him parked.
Jamie McMurray's team and his history of success at California will make him appealing to some fantasy owners. Keep in mind that he has only one career top-10 at Michigan, and he earned that fourth-place finish almost three years ago driving the No. 42 Dodge for Chip Ganassi Racing
At this point in the game, there is no sure way to predict 1) if there will be many cautions in the second half of the race or 2) who will have the best gas mileage. That makes things a little dicey for fantasy owners. Just two races ago at Lowe's Motor Speedway, many owners saw what could happen to their fantasy racing points when things boil down to fuel mileage. The one good thing, however, is it opens the door for the sleeper picks.
Favorites
Whether the race comes down to fuel mileage or not, it is hard to win if a driver is not in the right position. What better place to be than in the front? The Roush-Fenway Racing and Joe Gibbs Racing teams are the best at doing just that at Michigan and the sister two-mile, unrestricted intermediate California Speedway. However, no fantasy owner will want to count out any of the Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolets given their current dominance.
Matt Kenseth rarely misses the setup on a two-mile unrestricted, intermediate speedway. For his career at Michigan, he rarely finishes outside the top 10 and he has two victories on this smooth track. His 13th in the rain-shortened 2006 Michigan 400 snapped a six-race top 10 streak there, but he rebounded to pick up the August victory and then also won the February race at California. Equally impressive, Kenseth has finished on the lead lap in all but a single event at Michigan, and to finish first, a driver must first finish.
When Tony Stewart finds the right rhythm at a track, he puts up great numbers. Such is the case at Michigan. It took him only three starts to earn his first win there, and entering Sunday's race, he has seven top-10s in his last nine tries. He picked up a third there in August after being wrecked in the June event. He picked up where he left off earlier this year with an eighth at California on a track that is very similar in layout.
Dark Horses
At a track like Michigan, the dark horses take on a whole new level of importance. On this course, mediocre cars can get out front late in the race by a variety of means. Sometimes it is courtesy of pit strategy and other times it is by fuel mileage, which helped Jeremy Mayfield get to victory lane in 2005. Last year, rain and a fast pit stop helped Reed Sorenson make a charge at the win, though he eventually settled for fifth.
Momentum can carry a driver a long way in the NASCAR Nextel Cup Series. Over the last six races, few are hotter than Ryan Newman. He has two runner-up finishes in a row after sitting on the pole at both Dover International Speedway and Pocono Raceway. In addition, he earned a fourth at Darlington Speedway and top-10s at Richmond International Raceway and Talladega SuperSpeedway earlier this year. Newman has not had a top-10 at Michigan since he won two consecutive races there between 2003 and 2004, but he has four top-20s in his five most recent starts. He will get back into the top 10 there this week and if circumstances fall his way, he could be the surprising victor.
In just his first career start for Team Red Bull, Brian Vickers raced hard at California and earned a well-deserved top-10, which was the first for Toyota. While the No. 83 Camry is by no means a guaranteed contender anywhere, the team has gotten better in recent weeks. Vickers is more consistently making races these days and was fifth just last month in the 1.5-mile unrestricted, intermediate speedway of Lowe's Motor Speedway. He likely will make Sunday's field and has a shot to crack the top 10.
Avoidance
While Jack Roush definitely knows how to field solid entries at Michigan?three of the last five races have been won by a Roushketeer?some of his teams are questionable this week. With momentum meaning so much in the Nextel Cup Series, there are two of Roush's drivers who need to be left off the rosters.
Greg Biffle can give any fantasy owner five reasons to put him on the roster this week. He won there in both August 2004 and June 2005 and has since earned three consecutive top-10s. However, potential owners heard a similar story before he raced at California, a track he dominated in 2006. This year, he was mediocre at best and never led a lap. That inconsistency is what makes him a tough decision for Sunday's race. Unless his practice numbers indicate otherwise, leave him parked.
Jamie McMurray's team and his history of success at California will make him appealing to some fantasy owners. Keep in mind that he has only one career top-10 at Michigan, and he earned that fourth-place finish almost three years ago driving the No. 42 Dodge for Chip Ganassi Racing
