I had the game capped at Duke -12.5, right now I see Duke -11.5 so I'll be playing Duke pretty heavy. Once Duke gets rolling downhill there will be no looking back.
Michigan vs Duke
- Thread starter CapMan
- Start date
I also don't see Michigan cracking 60 in this game so I'd lean towards the under. Duke -11.5 will be the larger play, but like the under as well.
I've been thinking about all the Big Ten teams during this tournament and forecasting the landscape next year and all the teams are graduating major players..except Michigan. I don't see any conceivable way Michigan isn't preseason Top 15 and Big Ten favorite.
agree
agree
Under all day. . Duke size gives offensive bounds. novak may be quick to shoot, and make three, that keeps blue in game. . Duke is play. . but go blue
agree
Under all day. . Duke size gives offensive bounds. novak may be quick to shoot, and make three, that keeps blue in game. . Duke is play. . but go blue
the only thing I would caution you on is, Duke is notorius on getting a good lead and milking the clock and allowing a late cover. You might be on the right track tho, Good Luck!
I could see a backdoor happening like the last game vs Ohio St because Michigan will not stop firing 3's. I just think this is a bad match-up. Michigan is really going to struggle to get open looks and I can see at least 4-5 Duke "flops" called charges, especially against Morris when he goes barreling through the lane.
that's the real issue ageecee..and they are much faster..Michigan has a difficult time closing out on shooters, they just don't have the foot speed. So guys like Singler, Smith, Curry, Irving will get open shots..which is a problem. 2nd Chance pts will be something like 16-4..if Michigan gets any at all..I'll take that discrepancy any day of the week when I'm only laying 11.5. Michigan's best chance is to run and get transition lay-ups and 3's before the Duke bigs can get set up..the only problem there is Michigan will have to force Duke into misses AND get the rebound...two HUGE IFS.
- Mar 19, 2006
- 38,391
- 450
- 83
- 74
didn't watch much of the Big 11 this year..
can Mich. keep Duke from 80 points..
over looks mighty enticing given that Mich needs about 70 to keep it close given the scoring figures.
can Mich. keep Duke from 80 points..
over looks mighty enticing given that Mich needs about 70 to keep it close given the scoring figures.
- Mar 19, 2006
- 38,391
- 450
- 83
- 74
Both Michigan and Duke are fresh off of dominating performances in their first tournament games on Friday. Michigan pounded the Tennessee Volunteers 75-45 due to a second half surge that saw the Wolverines outscore the Vols 42-16. Duke did what they had to do against a 16 seed by rocking them to the tune of an 87-45 final score.
Duke will be the 6th top 5 team that Michigan has faced this year. Michigan has lost the 5 previous games of this nature, but all in respectable and some in dramatic fashion. Translation: they?ve been really close but haven?t quite pulled off that big upset.
Douglass and Zack Novak were a part of Michigan?s big early season 81-73 upset win over then #4 ranked Duke 2 seasons ago when an upstart Michigan squad made their last tournament appearance. The junior duo from Indiana were just freshmen at the time, but now find themselves in charge of the leadership of the young Michigan roster.
The Wolverines are led offensively by sophomore point guard Darius Morris (15 ppg, 6.7 apg) and freshman sensation Tim Hardaway, Jr (13.8 ppg). After a sluggish start on Friday against Tennessee, the Wolverines lit up the Vols in the 2nd half by playing an efficient brand of team ball with 5 players scoring in double digits.
Part of Michigan?s 1st half struggles on Friday were because freshman center Jordan Morgan and Hardaway sat most of the opening frame with foul trouble. Michigan will need to maintain their poise and trust the game plan that Coach John Beilein sets forth to have a chance at the upset on Sunday.
Duke is led by seniors Nolan Smith (20.9 ppg, 5.3 apg) and Kyle Singler (17 pgg, 6.8 rpg) but the biggest news on Friday was the successful return of Kyrie Irving. Irving, out with injury since January 4th, came back on Friday and logged 20 comfortable minutes in a blowout win. He scored 14 points and was able to get his feet wet with a bigger matchup looming on Sunday. Irving is considered to be one of the top draft choices in the upcoming NBA Draft if he chooses to leave Duke after his freshman season and obviously provides Duke a huge lift down the stretch.
The Blue Devils are well rounded as usual. Role players Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins are the shooters and Mason and Miles Plumlee are the twin towers down low. Michigan is familiar with the idea of playing against teams that are bigger, deeper, and more talented.
The Wolverines have played #1 Ohio State three times this year, Kansas, Syracuse, Purdue, and Wisconsin as well. Beilein?s team spreads the floor and often puts 5 shooters on the floor, which is a difficult matchup for opposing teams, especially teams that haven?t seen a look like this throughout the season.
Coach K will be tasked with getting his Duke team ready for Michigan?s unconventional style of play in about a day and a half of prep time. No other coach in the nation should be trusted more to get his team ready than Duke?s front man.
Athletic forwards like Singler have given Michigan a lot of trouble this year and it will be a matchup to pay close attention to throughout the game.
The keys to a Michigan upset will be the same as they?ve been all year. Michigan needs to stay out of early foul trouble, especially Jordan Morgan. They will also need to protect the basketball, which they have been very good at this year. At times, Michigan has struggled at the free throw line in key moments this year and will need to avoid that as well. The x-factor is the 3-point shooting.
Everybody that Michigan runs out there on a regular basis, with the exception of Morgan and Morris, can stripe it from deep. Michigan was 3 of 15 from three in the 1st half v. Tennessee and struggled. In the 2nd half they were 6 of 11 and destroyed the Vols. When Hardaway, Novak, Douglass, Evan Smotrycz, and Matt Vogrich are knocking down their threes, Morris is allowed to penetrate and be the prolific playmaker that he was born to be and Michigan is really tough to beat.
Michigan has won 10 of their last 14 and no matter what they do on Sunday; their season will be deemed a success. However, if you?ve ever seen Zack Novak in a postgame interview, you know that such a comforting notion means absolutely nothing to him. After Michigan upset Michigan State at the Breslin Center earlier this year, a place Michigan hadn?t won since 1997, an even-keeled Novak said, ?I hate to lose more than I like to win.?
The Wolverines have had an unusually high amount of opportunities to knock off top 5 teams and they will get at least one more shot on Sunday. A win against Duke could propel Michigan into a deep tournament run. A loss will still make them a team to watch going into 2011-12. Fanboys here at MJs are already talking about that anyways. Id rather talk about whats gonna make me money TODAY.
The bottom line for Duke is that anything short of a Final 4 appearance will be considered a disappointment.
Things I know for sure. Michigan is playing the best TEAM ball that they have the whole season. While Duke is more talented I cannot help but look at this Kyrie situation as a huge negative. Its a distraction and a disruption to team chemistry. When hes on the floor, his minutes are coming outta somebodies pockets. Youre not gonna hear that from a Coach K kid, but its true. Let me be perfectly clear, the guard has immense talent and upside, but hes not ready after so much downtime. Michigan is not Hampton. He will not be a significant factor today.
Jordan Morgan is the key for the Wolverines. If the refs want to give Duke the game and crown Ratface, then they can call ticky tac fouls on him and theres not much Michigan can do to stop the Plumlee express.
Im willing to bet that doesnt happen. Im willing to bet that CBS/ESPN/NCAA wants to rekindle this somewhat forced scheduled bracket matchup of Michigan/Duke to coincide with the bullshit 30 for 30 spoonfed crap rivalry of years gone. Lets talk about the fab 5, lets notice Bobby Hurley on that commercial who I thankfully havent heard from in 10 years, blah blah blah. It gets ratings up, it gets the masses interested, its something to talk about. Oh, what amazing timeslot fortune for this to be the only game on as well.
Talent - Duke
Coaching - Duke
Tournament Experience - Duke
I had Duke in the first round and took Michigan in the second half. I had VT beating Duke awhile back, then played UNC over them in the season. Came back in the ACC Championship with a ton of loot on Duke. It seems like I know them pretty well, and my instincts on this game should continue to be true.
My money - Michigan + pts (*as the line continues to rise)
Duke will be the 6th top 5 team that Michigan has faced this year. Michigan has lost the 5 previous games of this nature, but all in respectable and some in dramatic fashion. Translation: they?ve been really close but haven?t quite pulled off that big upset.
Douglass and Zack Novak were a part of Michigan?s big early season 81-73 upset win over then #4 ranked Duke 2 seasons ago when an upstart Michigan squad made their last tournament appearance. The junior duo from Indiana were just freshmen at the time, but now find themselves in charge of the leadership of the young Michigan roster.
The Wolverines are led offensively by sophomore point guard Darius Morris (15 ppg, 6.7 apg) and freshman sensation Tim Hardaway, Jr (13.8 ppg). After a sluggish start on Friday against Tennessee, the Wolverines lit up the Vols in the 2nd half by playing an efficient brand of team ball with 5 players scoring in double digits.
Part of Michigan?s 1st half struggles on Friday were because freshman center Jordan Morgan and Hardaway sat most of the opening frame with foul trouble. Michigan will need to maintain their poise and trust the game plan that Coach John Beilein sets forth to have a chance at the upset on Sunday.
Duke is led by seniors Nolan Smith (20.9 ppg, 5.3 apg) and Kyle Singler (17 pgg, 6.8 rpg) but the biggest news on Friday was the successful return of Kyrie Irving. Irving, out with injury since January 4th, came back on Friday and logged 20 comfortable minutes in a blowout win. He scored 14 points and was able to get his feet wet with a bigger matchup looming on Sunday. Irving is considered to be one of the top draft choices in the upcoming NBA Draft if he chooses to leave Duke after his freshman season and obviously provides Duke a huge lift down the stretch.
The Blue Devils are well rounded as usual. Role players Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins are the shooters and Mason and Miles Plumlee are the twin towers down low. Michigan is familiar with the idea of playing against teams that are bigger, deeper, and more talented.
The Wolverines have played #1 Ohio State three times this year, Kansas, Syracuse, Purdue, and Wisconsin as well. Beilein?s team spreads the floor and often puts 5 shooters on the floor, which is a difficult matchup for opposing teams, especially teams that haven?t seen a look like this throughout the season.
Coach K will be tasked with getting his Duke team ready for Michigan?s unconventional style of play in about a day and a half of prep time. No other coach in the nation should be trusted more to get his team ready than Duke?s front man.
Athletic forwards like Singler have given Michigan a lot of trouble this year and it will be a matchup to pay close attention to throughout the game.
The keys to a Michigan upset will be the same as they?ve been all year. Michigan needs to stay out of early foul trouble, especially Jordan Morgan. They will also need to protect the basketball, which they have been very good at this year. At times, Michigan has struggled at the free throw line in key moments this year and will need to avoid that as well. The x-factor is the 3-point shooting.
Everybody that Michigan runs out there on a regular basis, with the exception of Morgan and Morris, can stripe it from deep. Michigan was 3 of 15 from three in the 1st half v. Tennessee and struggled. In the 2nd half they were 6 of 11 and destroyed the Vols. When Hardaway, Novak, Douglass, Evan Smotrycz, and Matt Vogrich are knocking down their threes, Morris is allowed to penetrate and be the prolific playmaker that he was born to be and Michigan is really tough to beat.
Michigan has won 10 of their last 14 and no matter what they do on Sunday; their season will be deemed a success. However, if you?ve ever seen Zack Novak in a postgame interview, you know that such a comforting notion means absolutely nothing to him. After Michigan upset Michigan State at the Breslin Center earlier this year, a place Michigan hadn?t won since 1997, an even-keeled Novak said, ?I hate to lose more than I like to win.?
The Wolverines have had an unusually high amount of opportunities to knock off top 5 teams and they will get at least one more shot on Sunday. A win against Duke could propel Michigan into a deep tournament run. A loss will still make them a team to watch going into 2011-12. Fanboys here at MJs are already talking about that anyways. Id rather talk about whats gonna make me money TODAY.
The bottom line for Duke is that anything short of a Final 4 appearance will be considered a disappointment.
Things I know for sure. Michigan is playing the best TEAM ball that they have the whole season. While Duke is more talented I cannot help but look at this Kyrie situation as a huge negative. Its a distraction and a disruption to team chemistry. When hes on the floor, his minutes are coming outta somebodies pockets. Youre not gonna hear that from a Coach K kid, but its true. Let me be perfectly clear, the guard has immense talent and upside, but hes not ready after so much downtime. Michigan is not Hampton. He will not be a significant factor today.
Jordan Morgan is the key for the Wolverines. If the refs want to give Duke the game and crown Ratface, then they can call ticky tac fouls on him and theres not much Michigan can do to stop the Plumlee express.
Im willing to bet that doesnt happen. Im willing to bet that CBS/ESPN/NCAA wants to rekindle this somewhat forced scheduled bracket matchup of Michigan/Duke to coincide with the bullshit 30 for 30 spoonfed crap rivalry of years gone. Lets talk about the fab 5, lets notice Bobby Hurley on that commercial who I thankfully havent heard from in 10 years, blah blah blah. It gets ratings up, it gets the masses interested, its something to talk about. Oh, what amazing timeslot fortune for this to be the only game on as well.
Talent - Duke
Coaching - Duke
Tournament Experience - Duke
I had Duke in the first round and took Michigan in the second half. I had VT beating Duke awhile back, then played UNC over them in the season. Came back in the ACC Championship with a ton of loot on Duke. It seems like I know them pretty well, and my instincts on this game should continue to be true.
My money - Michigan + pts (*as the line continues to rise)
MISHEEGAN 13-1 ATS their last 14 and you're jumping ship! The loan non-cover was the Indiana debacle.... GO WOLVERINES!:00hour
i wouldn't touch this one ...but if you put a gun to my head i'd take the points as these kids have been performing well ATS ...anyway there's much better disparity in other games to cash on (VTU , Syracuse )
Good info, but to me I see Morgan on the floor as a negative today. He can't rebound with BOTH Plumlees and he certainly can't finish in the paint against guys bigger than him. He was non existent vs Sullinger. Michigan needs to spread the floor with 5 shooters, that means Smotrycz over Morgan and just work the clock and get Duke in bad switches defensively. Duke loves to switch on ball screens. If they can get Hardaway on a Plumlee a few times and Smotrycz and Novak free they can hang around. But ultimately, they won't be able to slow Duke. Duke will need a terrible shooting performance from Smith and Singler of epic proportions. Like 5-21 bad. I locked in at 11.5 yesterday, it's already 12.5. As a fan, I hope Michigan can eat the clock, turn it into a grinder and see what happens late, but I see this getting ugly.
Both authors of the article you posted agree as well. Rob picked Michigan 72-70 and Joe predicted 76-71.
I believe in match-ups over hot and cold teams. Tennessee can't shoot...Duke can...and will...and when they miss they will play volleyball. Novak is our best rebounder and he's 6'5 tops...this is basically a free game with no pressure for my Wolves so I won't be disappointed with any outcome..next year there will be expectation..
are you saying if the line was 13 , you would go the other way ??? if you like a gm, you can't play it, or not paly it on a pt or 2.... if dk covers, it should be big.... I like DK ... what is the max you would lay ???
