If you believe that it's way too early to think about betting on the NFL, then think again! Thanks to early NFL lines -- most notably at the Imperial Palace in Las Vegas and several offshore sportsbooks -- it's is now possible to bet on games for the first week of football season. Games for Week 1 are scheduled to begin on September 5th.
I look at early NFL lines with the same keen eye that an investor looks at a share of common stock. Today's quoted price is unlikely to be the price of the stock three months from now. The price of that stock will either move up or down, depending on market forces and the degree of demand for the stock. The same goes for early NFL lines. Since it's impossible to predict with certainty what will occur in team training camps and pre-season games, trying to foresee what will happen to the lines on NFL games is a matter of speculation. But that's what gambling is all about -- speculation. Much like stock investing, we try to make informed judgments. Much like stock investing, there are good values and bad values. Much like stock investing, we can use our instincts and weigh them against what we expect the market (the public) will do.
The reason why it's a good idea to look at and strongly consider early betting is twofold. (1) First, you are likely to get better lines now on some teams than you will get if you wait until the first week of the season. If you make a bet now, the game where you bet a 3-point favorite today, might be a 4-point favorite tomorrow (of course, the reverse is also true). (2) Second, and probably more important, early betting potentially allows for some excellent middling opportunities. That's what I want to talk about in today's report. There is one game where we not only get excellent value (#1), but we are likely to get a chance to middle this game (#2) if my instincts are correct.
First, here's a look at the NFL opener?..
SAN FRANCISCO at NY GIANTS (Thursday, September 5)
For the first time in history, the NFL will kick off the season with a Thursday night game. The 49ers are scheduled to play the Giants at the Meadowlands. It is impossible to handicap this game so early, but what is interesting is seeing the line movement. Several days ago, this line opened at PICK EM. Yesterday (Sunday) the line moved to SFO -1. Today, the line is SFO -2. The early money is flowing in on the 49ers. Since it's unlikely that the line will cross a key number (3), I see no reason to bet this game early. Add the intangible of a huge emotional home opener for the Giants with the Sept. 11th anniversary on the horizon, and this game is a toss-up. As much as I like the 49ers coming into this season, this is a game the 49ers could easily lose. No early bet.
PHOENIX at WASHINGTON
Cardinals have suffered some horrible luck in the last two pre-seasons. They have a history of being destroyed by injuries in the pre-season games which carries over into the first part of the regular season. Things can only improve this year. What I fail to understand is how the line on this game can be Washington -6? Washington comes into 2002 with a brand new head coach, a new offensive system, lots of questions about the defense, and a huge void at quarterback. Redskins finished strong last season and completed the season at 8-8, but former coach Shottenheimer is now gone and the players are having to learn their third playbook in three years (actually 4th system in three years if you count the Roebke disaster as interim head coach in 2000). I think the public is grossly overestimating the Steve Spurrior hiring, thinking he will turn this team around in a couple of games. If Spurrior's new system is as complex as has been reported, then it's going to take some time for the players to become comfortable. Add the bumbling trio of lame brained quarterbacks currently on the roster, and this only makes things worse for Washington. No matter how bad the Cardinals have been in recent years' early games, there's no way the Redskins should be 6-point favorites here. As the Redskins stumble through pre-season (they were 1-4 ATS last pre-season), look for this line to drop closer to game day -- perhaps as low as 4. If the line hits 4, that's an excellent middle opportunity to catch the 4, 5, and 6. If Redskins fail to find a starting quarterback, this line could even hit 3. Great value play here with an early bet on PHX +6.
NOTE: I'll add to this list with comments on the early NFL lines later in the week.
I look at early NFL lines with the same keen eye that an investor looks at a share of common stock. Today's quoted price is unlikely to be the price of the stock three months from now. The price of that stock will either move up or down, depending on market forces and the degree of demand for the stock. The same goes for early NFL lines. Since it's impossible to predict with certainty what will occur in team training camps and pre-season games, trying to foresee what will happen to the lines on NFL games is a matter of speculation. But that's what gambling is all about -- speculation. Much like stock investing, we try to make informed judgments. Much like stock investing, there are good values and bad values. Much like stock investing, we can use our instincts and weigh them against what we expect the market (the public) will do.
The reason why it's a good idea to look at and strongly consider early betting is twofold. (1) First, you are likely to get better lines now on some teams than you will get if you wait until the first week of the season. If you make a bet now, the game where you bet a 3-point favorite today, might be a 4-point favorite tomorrow (of course, the reverse is also true). (2) Second, and probably more important, early betting potentially allows for some excellent middling opportunities. That's what I want to talk about in today's report. There is one game where we not only get excellent value (#1), but we are likely to get a chance to middle this game (#2) if my instincts are correct.
First, here's a look at the NFL opener?..
SAN FRANCISCO at NY GIANTS (Thursday, September 5)
For the first time in history, the NFL will kick off the season with a Thursday night game. The 49ers are scheduled to play the Giants at the Meadowlands. It is impossible to handicap this game so early, but what is interesting is seeing the line movement. Several days ago, this line opened at PICK EM. Yesterday (Sunday) the line moved to SFO -1. Today, the line is SFO -2. The early money is flowing in on the 49ers. Since it's unlikely that the line will cross a key number (3), I see no reason to bet this game early. Add the intangible of a huge emotional home opener for the Giants with the Sept. 11th anniversary on the horizon, and this game is a toss-up. As much as I like the 49ers coming into this season, this is a game the 49ers could easily lose. No early bet.
PHOENIX at WASHINGTON
Cardinals have suffered some horrible luck in the last two pre-seasons. They have a history of being destroyed by injuries in the pre-season games which carries over into the first part of the regular season. Things can only improve this year. What I fail to understand is how the line on this game can be Washington -6? Washington comes into 2002 with a brand new head coach, a new offensive system, lots of questions about the defense, and a huge void at quarterback. Redskins finished strong last season and completed the season at 8-8, but former coach Shottenheimer is now gone and the players are having to learn their third playbook in three years (actually 4th system in three years if you count the Roebke disaster as interim head coach in 2000). I think the public is grossly overestimating the Steve Spurrior hiring, thinking he will turn this team around in a couple of games. If Spurrior's new system is as complex as has been reported, then it's going to take some time for the players to become comfortable. Add the bumbling trio of lame brained quarterbacks currently on the roster, and this only makes things worse for Washington. No matter how bad the Cardinals have been in recent years' early games, there's no way the Redskins should be 6-point favorites here. As the Redskins stumble through pre-season (they were 1-4 ATS last pre-season), look for this line to drop closer to game day -- perhaps as low as 4. If the line hits 4, that's an excellent middle opportunity to catch the 4, 5, and 6. If Redskins fail to find a starting quarterback, this line could even hit 3. Great value play here with an early bet on PHX +6.
NOTE: I'll add to this list with comments on the early NFL lines later in the week.
