Mine That Bird a Triple Crown long shot? Yes, but?
At first glance, Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird appears to command little respect.
In a betting proposition at Lucky?s sports books asking if ?Birdie? will complete a Triple Crown bid by winning Saturday?s Preakness and the Belmont, the ?No? side is heavily favored.
Bettors must lay a price of minus 3500 (risk $35 to net $1) to wager against Mine That Bird winning racing?s Triple Crown.
It?s plus 2000 (risk $1 to net $20) that the colt will win the Triple Crown.
The proposition is structured to give bettors on either side a fair shake, however. The theoretical hold percentage, or house edge, on a prop of minus 3500/plus 2000 works out to just under 2 percent. This compares quite favorably with a standard wager on either side of a typical football or basketball game, for example, in which bettors must buck a disadvantage of about 4 1/2 percent.
Mine That Bird is listed at plus 850 to win in early Preakness wagering, the fourth choice behind filly Rachel Alexandra, Pioneerof the Nile, and Friesan Fire. So the plus 2000 price on the Triple Crown prop corresponds with projected odds of about 6-5 on Birdie in the Belmont, should he win the Preakness.
There?s a chance Birdie, if he wins Saturday, would be a much shorter favorite in the Belmont. For example, if you think odds of plus 850 on Birdie to win the Preakness are fair, and you suspect he would be something like a 1-2 shot in the Belmont, then you would want to take a close look at the ?Yes? side of the Triple Crown prop at plus 2000.
In the parlance of the racing form, this option would be ?much the best.?
At first glance, Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird appears to command little respect.
In a betting proposition at Lucky?s sports books asking if ?Birdie? will complete a Triple Crown bid by winning Saturday?s Preakness and the Belmont, the ?No? side is heavily favored.
Bettors must lay a price of minus 3500 (risk $35 to net $1) to wager against Mine That Bird winning racing?s Triple Crown.
It?s plus 2000 (risk $1 to net $20) that the colt will win the Triple Crown.
The proposition is structured to give bettors on either side a fair shake, however. The theoretical hold percentage, or house edge, on a prop of minus 3500/plus 2000 works out to just under 2 percent. This compares quite favorably with a standard wager on either side of a typical football or basketball game, for example, in which bettors must buck a disadvantage of about 4 1/2 percent.
Mine That Bird is listed at plus 850 to win in early Preakness wagering, the fourth choice behind filly Rachel Alexandra, Pioneerof the Nile, and Friesan Fire. So the plus 2000 price on the Triple Crown prop corresponds with projected odds of about 6-5 on Birdie in the Belmont, should he win the Preakness.
There?s a chance Birdie, if he wins Saturday, would be a much shorter favorite in the Belmont. For example, if you think odds of plus 850 on Birdie to win the Preakness are fair, and you suspect he would be something like a 1-2 shot in the Belmont, then you would want to take a close look at the ?Yes? side of the Triple Crown prop at plus 2000.
In the parlance of the racing form, this option would be ?much the best.?
