Misc Week 14 Analysis

[Senor Capper]

Inside the Matchups - NFL Week 14 (Ny Daily News)
BY JIM RICH

FOR THE RECORD
LAST WEEK: 11-4-1, O/U: 9-7, BB: 0-1
OVERALL: 102-84-6, O/U: 94-95-3, BB: 9-4
BEST BET: Jets


Jets at Steelers


4:05 pm Ch. 2. Steelers by 6, 36


VITAL SIGNS: In their last three games, the Steelers (11-1) have beaten the mediocre Bengals, Redskins and Jaguars by an average of only five points. The pressure of this 10-game winning streak seems to be wearing on Pittsburgh. Ben Roethlisberger (155-of-229, 1,940 yards, 14 TDs, 6 INTs) has been sacked 14 times over those three games and has thrown for more than 138 yards only once during that span. Duce Staley's team-high 51 yards rushing last week represented the first time since Week 6 that the Steelers did not have a 100-yard rusher. DE John Abraham (knee) is a huge loss for the Jets (9-3). Gang Green comes in with some impressive numbers on both sides of the ball: 14.6 points allowed per game (No. 1 in the NFL) and 338.1 yards gained per game (No. 6 in the AFC).


MONEY MATTERS: Jets are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games vs. Pittsburgh. Steelers are 6-0 at home.


JIM DANDIES: Trends point to Pittsburgh, but if Washington and Jacksonville could cover vs. the Steelers, the Jets should be able to win.


IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Jets and the under.


Giants at Ravens


1 p.m. Ch. 5. Ravens by 10, 33-1/2


VITAL SIGNS: As Tom Coughlin's Giants (5-7) find themsevles somehow in the thick of the NFC wild-card hunt, the fickle finger of fandom is pointing toward Kurt Warner again. Citing Bill Parcells' yo-yo maneuver with Drew Henson in Dallas, many of those who called for Eli Manning's early entrance into the starting role are now calling for his premature ejection. Here's the problem with that rationale: the skill gap between Henson and Vinny Testaverde is far greater than that between Manning and Warner. Big Blue is facing the same plight vs. the Ravens (7-5) regardless of which QB is under center. Baltimore is expected to be without Jamal Lewis (ankle) again, but Chester Taylor has been more than servicable, rushing for 139 yards last week vs. Cincy. Kyle Boller has not thrown a TD pass in two weeks.


MONEY MATTERS: Giants have never beaten Baltimore. Ravens are 8-4 ATS this year.


JIM DANDIES: The Ravens laying this many points is a risky proposition, but if there is an offense more listless than Baltimore's right now, it's the Giants'.


IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Ravens and the under.


Bengals at Patriots


1 p.m. Patriots by 11, 44


VITAL SIGNS: Corey Dillon (254 carries, 1,221 yards, 9 TDs) gets his first shot at the his former mates as the Patriots (11-1) face the Bengals (6-6). Dillon has averaged 117 yards per game during New England's current five-game winning streak. Tom Brady (209-of-357, 2,771 yards, 19 TDs, 9 INTs) is the sixth-highest rated passer in the AFC. New England has averaged the fourth-most yards per game (356) in the AFC. Carson Palmer has completed 78% of his passes and thrown seven TD passes as Cincy defeated the Browns and Ravens the past two weeks. WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh (46 receptions, 655 yards, 3 TDs) caught 10 passes for 171 yards and a TD last week vs. Baltimore.


MONEY MATTERS: Patriots are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. Cincinnati. Bengals are 5-6-1 ATS this season.


JIM DANDIES: Dillon should have a huge game against a Cincy defense that allows 141.9 rushing yards per game, but the Bengals just might be able to scratch their way in through the back door for the cover.


IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bengals and the over.


Browns at Bills


1 p.m. Bills by 11, 38


VITAL SIGNS: The Browns (3-9) are 0-5 on the road and have lost by fewer than 10 points only once in those games. The Bills (6-6), winners of five of their last six, have rediscovered their offense. Buffalo has scored 37 or more points in four of its last five victories and Drew Bledsoe has throw for 552 yards with five TDs in the past two weeks. This doesn't bode well for the Browns, who have seen their once-respectable defense fall apart the past two games, surrendering a combined 100 points to the Bengals and Patriots. Luke McCown looked decent in his first start, connecting on 20-of-34 passes for 277 yards, two TDs and two INTs vs. New England. Banished Cowboys bad boy Antonio Bryant has finally caught on in Cleveland, grabbing 15 passes for 246 yards and four TDs the past two games.


MONEY MATTERS: Bills are 8-4 ATS this year. Browns are 4-8 ATS this season.


JIM DANDIES: Willis MaGahee (213 carries, 817 yards, 7 TDs) continues to make the Bills look brilliant for gambling on him in the at No. 23 in the 2003 draft.


IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bills and the under.

 

[Senor Capper]

Lions at Packers


4:15 p.m. Packers by 9-1/2, 45


VITAL SIGNS: The Packers (7-5) beat the Lions (5-7) 38-10 in Week 6. In that game, QB Joey Harrington (196-of-344, 2,127 yards, 15 TDs, 8 INTs) led Detroit in rushing with 12 yards. That almost certainly will not be the case this time around as Kevin Jones comes in averaging 132 yards per game over the last three weeks. Jones posted 196 yards and a TD on 25 carries in last week's 26-12 Lions win over Arizona. Ahman Green (196 carries, 916 yards, 6 TDs) was clearly still bothered by his bruised ribs in Philadelphia. He managed only 37 yards on 11 carries. Brett Favre is coming off his worst game of the year: a 14-of-29 showing for 131 yards and two INTs.


MONEY MATTERS: Lions are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games at Lambeau Field. Packers are 5-6-1 ATS this season.


JIM DANDIES: The Packers have owned the Lions at Lambeau, but would anyone be surprised to see all four teams in the NFC North within a game of each other heading into Week 14?


IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Lions and the over.


Seahawks at Vikings


1 p.m. Vikings by 6-1/2, 51


VITAL SIGNS: The Seahawks (6-6) have lost their last two games while giving up an average of 40.5 points. Mike Holmgren must be dizzy trying to figure out which of his team's problems to address first. Aside from giving up two TDs in in the final 2:30 to the Cowboys Monday night, Holmgren's defense has given up 225.5 passing yards per game - fourth-worst in the NFC. Matt Hasselbeck (213-of-383, 2,656 yards, 15 TDs, 11 INTs) finally played like the MVP candidate he was supposed t be, completeing 28-of-40 passes for 414 and three TDs. The Vikings (7-5) missed a golden opportunity to seize control of the NFC North when they stumbled in Chicago last week. Randy Moss (34 receptions, 465 yards, 9 TDs) caught only four passes for 31 yards. Despite missing three weeks, Moss is still fourth in the NFC in TD receptions.


MONEY MATTERS: Vikings are 7-5 ATS this season. Seahawks are 4-8 ATS this year.


JIM DANDIES: Minnesota is 5-1 at home this year and should be able to survive this battle of underachievers.


IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Vikings and the over.


Raiders at Falcons


1 p.m. Falcons by 7-1/2, 46


VITAL SIGNS: When you hear the words Michael Vick, you usually think explosive offensive ability. Yet, after suffering a 27-0 drubbing at the hands of the offensively challenged Bucs last week, the Falcons (9-3) have now been held to six or fewer points twice this year. In addition, Vick seems to have an affinty for the number 115: in three games this season that his been his total in passing yards. He threw for 119 in another. Atlanta is 2-2 in those four games. The Raiders (4-8) are banged-up and bad - always a difficult combination to overcome - but have played much better the past month. Kerry Collins has thrown for more than 330 yards in each of the past two games and has a total of seven TD passes over that span.


MONEY MATTERS: Falcons are 1-3 ATS in last four home games vs. Oakland. Raiders are 4-8 ATS this season.


JIM DANDIES: RB Tyrone Wheatley (hamstring) and WR Ronald Curry (Achilles) will be missed by the Raiders, but 'tis the season for overachieving teams such as the Falcons to continue their descent back to earth.


IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Raiders and the over.


Bears at Jaguars


1 p.m. Jaguars by 7-1/2, 34


VITAL SIGNS: The Jaguars (6-6) have lost three straight, including two at home. If not for an overtime win vs. Detroit in Week 10, Jacksonville would be staring down the barrel of a a five-game skid. Byron Leftwich (212-of-334, 2,394 yards, 11 TDs, 7 INTs) has put up solid numbers since returning to the lineup two weeks ago, but has only converted on three of the 10 red-zone opportunities the Jags have had in the past two games. Chad Hutchinson gave the Bears (5-7) a much-needed spark, completing 18-of-30 passes for 213 yards and three TDs. Hutchinson had some success the last time he faced the Jaguars in 2002. Then with the Cowboys, Hutchinson connected on 16-of-24 passes for 301 yards, two TDs and two INTs in a 21-19 Dallas loss.


MONEY MATTERS: Bears are 6-6 ATS this season. Jaguars are 7-5 ATS this season.


JIM DANDIES: 'Tis also the season for receiving - take all the points you can get in late-season games between mediocre teams.


IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bears and the over.

 

[Senor Capper]

Saints at Cowboys


1 p.m. Cowboys by 7, 48


VITAL SIGNS: The Saints (4-8) have lost three straight and their defense is allowing an NFL-worst 416.8 yards per game. The Cowboys (5-7) have not fared much better. Dallas has allowed 345.4 yards per game, good for a ranking of 24th in the league. Julius Jones - with 348 yards and five TDs over the last two games - has the Dallas denizens thinking Super Bowl again. There are many elements working against that ever becoming a reality, not the least of which is Vinny Testaverde (221-of-363, 2,731 yards, 14 TDs, 16 INTs) and his penchant for throwing the ball to opponents at the most inopportune of times. Testaverde's two picks in the fourth quarter last week vs. Seattle nearly allowed th Seahawks to swoop in and win a game they had no business winning.


MONEY MATTERS: Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their four games vs. NEw Orleans. Saints are 4-8 ATS this season.


JIM DANDIES: Aaron Brooks and Joe Horn should be able to replicate Matt Hasselbeck's and Jerry Rice's performance from Monday night and keep this shootout close.


IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Saints and the over.


Colts at Texans


1 p.m. Colts by 10-1/2, 56-1/2


VITAL SIGNS: The Colts (9-3) come in averaging 45.5 points per game during their current four-game winning streak. That includes a 49-14 thrashing of the Texans (5-7) in Week 10. Somewhat overshadowed by Peyton Manning's (262-of-385, 3,621 yards, 44 TDs, 9 INTs) mind-boggling year have been the efforts of RB Edgerrin James and WR Brandon Stokley. James is the NFL's second-leading rusher (behind only Curtis Martin)with 1,291 yards. Stokley leads Indianapolis' vaunted receiving corps with 882 yards, and is ranked fifth in the AFC in that category. David Carr (228-of-372, 2,899 yards, 12 TDs, 11 INTs) seems to be running out of steam, and RB Domanick Davis (206 carries, 704 yards, 9 TDs) has not followed through on the promise he displayed last season.


MONEY MATTERS: Colts are 5-0 vs. the Texans. Houston is 5-6-1 ATS this season.


JIM DANDIES: This is an astronomical number to be laying on the road, but it's hard to pick against the Colts when they have won by no fewer than 27 points over the past four weeks.


IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Colts and the over.


Dolphins at Broncos


4:05 p.m. Broncos by 11-1/2, 38-1/2


VITAL SIGNS: The Dolphins (2-10) continue to play hard. A.J. Feeley (127-of-243, 1,349 yards, 8 TDs, 14 INTs) is never going to be confused with Dan Marino, but his ability to make plays with an offense that has struggled to construct a running game has been impressive. His three TD passes vs. the Bills last week were offset by his five INTs, a sign that he is being asked to do too many things. The Broncos (7-5) continued sliding last week as they dropped another close game, this one to the Chargers. Denver has lost back-to-back games by a combined total of four points. Jake Plummer has thrown five INTs and only one TD over those two games. Reuben Droughns was held to a season-low as a starter of 38 rushing yards.


MONEY MATTERS: Broncos are 1-3 ATS in their last four home games vs. Miami. Dolphins are 4-8 ATS this season.


JIM DANDIES: Mike Shanahan, who is starting to hear whispers about his job security, will have even more explaining to do after this one.


IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Dolphins and the under.

 

[Senor Capper]

Rams at Panthers


4:15 p.m. Panthers by 6-1/2, 44


VITAL SIGNS: With Marc Bulger (shoulder) out, the Rams (6-6) place their playoff hopes squarely on the 39-year-old shoulders of Chris Chandler. The veteran QB completed 18-of-27 passes for 216 yards, with a TD and INT in relief of Bulger last week as St. Louis survived vs. the Niners. The last time Chandler faced the Panthers (5-7) was in 2002 with the Bears. He went 7-of-8 for 113 yards and a TD in a 24-14 loss. QB Jake Delhomme (227-of-394, 2,819 yards, 20 TDS, 13 INTs), RB Nick Goings (116 carries, 479 yards, 4 TDs) and WR Mushin Muhammad (63 receptions, 962 yards, 10 TDs) continue to be the catalysts behind this unlikely Panthers playoff push. John Fox's defense is more vulnerable at times than it has been in the past, but his offense has found its groove.


MONEY MATTERS: Panthers are 7-5 ATS this season. Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. Carolina.


JIM DANDIES: The Rams were in trouble with Bulger. With Chandler, they can start thinking about next season.


IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Panthers and the over.


49ers at Cardinals


4:15 P.M. Cardinals by 7, 37-1/2


VITAL SIGNS: Dennis Green will return the Cardinals' (4-8) quaterbacking duties to Josh McCown after a three-game fiasco that has took Arizona out of the playoff picture. Green's decision to yank McCown as the starter after a Week 10 win over the Giants that put the Cardinals at 4-5, has been the worst coaching decision of the year. Arizona has gone 0-3 since, losing by an average of 16 points per game and scoring a total of 25 points. McCown had his best game of the year in a 31-28 OT loss in Week 5 that was the only victory of the season for the Niners (1-11). McCown went 19-of-34 for 231 yards, three TDs and an INT.


MONEY MATTERS: Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games vs. San Fran. Niners are 0-6 on the road this season.


JIM DANDIES: It's a little late for redemption in the desert, but McCown gets a shot to show that his early season performance was not a mirage - and that Green must have been hallucinating when he decided to flip the switch on his crazy QB carousel.


IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Cardinals and the over.



Bucs at Chargers


4:15 p.m. Chargers by 5, 43


VITAL SIGNS: The Chargers (9-3) can thank Jake Plummer and his four INTs for keeping their six-game winning streak alive. San Diego has won its last three games by a total of 12 points. The Bucs (5-7) have not strung together wins since Weeks 14 and 15 of last season, but should be more desperate than the Chargers. Tampa's defense kept Michael Vick and Atlanta in check last week, shutting out the Falcons while holding them to 255 total yards. Brian Griese (154-of-223, 1,801 yards, 13 TDs, 6 INTs) continues to do just enough to win. Fans in San Diego have to be hoping that Drew Brees' clunker last week was a fluke and not him reverting to form. Brees, who had thrown 12 TD passes in the previous four games, went 14-of 27 for 106 yards and an INT.


MONEY MATTERS: Bucs are 1-3 ATS in their last four games vs. San Diego. Chargers are 10-1-1 ATS this season.


JIM DANDIES: The Chargers are due for a letdown and the Bucs seem to be doing enough things right at this point to pull off the upset.


IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bucs and the under.


Eagles at Redskins


8:30 p.m. ESPN. Eagles by 9-1/2, 37-1/2


VITAL SIGNS: Beating the Giants may have been cause for celebration for the Redskins (4-8) in what has been a miserable year. But the euphoria will wear off quickly as the Eagles (11-1) roll into town, looking to repeat what they did to Joe Gibbs' not-so-fun bunch three weeks ago in Philly. Andy Reid's NFC East champs barely broke a sweat in a 28-6 victory that saw Terrell Owens limited to two receptions (one for a TD) and 24 yards. The Eagles held Washington to 213 total yards and only 51 on the ground. Donovan McNabb was highly efficient, while completing 18-of-26 passes for 222 yards, four TDs and an INT. Redskins RB Clinton Portis (275 carries, 1,093 yards, 3 TDs) had 148 yards last week.


MONEY MATTERS: Redskins are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games vs. Philly. Eagles are 9-3 ATS this season.


JIM DANDIES: Thanks to last week's Redskins' win and the fact that the game is being played at Washington, this number ends up being a holiday gift.


IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Eagles and the under.


__________________

 

[Senor Capper]

NFL week 14 analysis (DJ Boyer 107-80-5 ATS)

DJ's NFL Weekly Predictions ? Week 14


Straight Up Against the Spread

Last Week 12-4 13-3

Season
124-68 107-80-5

Another killer week for me. I am at or near the top of every site where I pick with other pros and my against the spread record of 27 games over .500 is one of the best in the industry. Now we have 4 weeks to go in the regular season which means the playoffs are right around the corner
(Week1, Week 2, Week 3, Week 4, Week 5, Week 6, Week 7, Week 8, Week 9, Week 10, Week 11, Week 12, Week 13)

Oakland Raiders (4-8) at Atlanta Falcons (9-3)
Line: Raiders +7

Kerry Collins has been red-hot the last three weeks so I think he is due for a letdown. This could be a week where Vick rushes for 100 yards. I am still not sold on the Falcons as a serious NFC contender but I think they will win this game.

Straight: Falcons
Spread: Falcons


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New York Giants (5-7) at Baltimore Ravens (7-5)
Line: Giants +9.5

This could be the first game all season long where Kyle Boller is facing a QB with a lower quarterback rating then he has. This has all the making for the coveted Football.com ?Blowout of the Week?. The Ravens get a big lead and this time they put their opponent away.

Straight: Ravens
Spread: Ravens


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Cleveland Browns (3-9) at Buffalo Bills (6-6)
Line: Browns +10.5

The question is not whether I will pick the Browns to win this game, it is whether I will pick them to win for the rest of the year.

Straight: Bills
Spread: Bills


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New Orleans Saints (4-8) at Dallas Cowboys (5-7)
Line: Saints +7.5

Julius Jones is showing what a stud running back he can be. I don?t feel bad now saying that Eddie George should have been cut in the preseason. Jones is averaging 143 rush yards a game over the last three games and this week Julius Jones plays the Saints, a team ranked dead last in the NFL in terms of rush defense. Then again the Cowboys pass defense stinks so we could see about 80 points in this game.

Straight: Cowboys
Spread: Saints


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Detroit Lions (5-7) at Green Bay Packers (7-5)
Line: Lions +9

The Detroit Lions have shown they can run the football with Kevin Jones but Green Bay has been tough against the run ever since the return of Grady Jackson. I expect the Packers to make this a statement game and win after their embarrassing loss in Philadelphia.

Straight: Packers
Spread: Packers


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Chicago Bears (5-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (6-6)
Line: Bears +6.5

All of the close game the Jaguars were winning at the beginning of the year they are now starting lose. I expect this to be a competitive game but the Jaguars will come out on top.

Straight: Jaguars
Spread: Bears


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Cincinnati Bengals (6-6) at New England Patriots (11-1)
Line: Bengals +10.5

If the Bills or Bengals were in the NFC we would have some real worthy teams of making the playoffs! The Bengals are hot and maybe their passing game is good enough to take advantage of the banged up Patriot secondary. The Bengals keep it close but fall on the road.

Straight: Patriots
Spread: Bengals


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[Senor Capper]

Seattle Seahawks (6-6) at Minnesota Vikings (7-5)
Line: Seahawks +6.5

I am damned if I do or damned if I don?t in this situation. The Seahawks have little to no defense to speak of and seem to have every key linebacker on the roster injured. The Vikings on the other hand are continuing the late-season freefall they seem to have perfected over the years. I will go with Seattle in a mild ?Upset of the Week? pick.

Straight: Seahawks
Spread: Seahawks


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Indianapolis Colts (9-3) at Houston Texans (5-7)
Line: Texans +10

It seems unfair that the Colts have the top offense in the league and lead all teams with a +16 turnover ratio. Indianapolis laid the wood to Houston earlier this year and I expect more of the same this week.

Straight: Colts
Spread: Colts


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Miami Dolphins (2-10) at Denver Broncos (7-5)
Line: Dolphins +10.5

I just talked about turnover ratio in the previous game listed above, Indianapolis at Houston. While Indy is the darling of the league at +16 Miami?s 2-10 record is proof of what a team who sports a -21 in that category can do. I like the way this team is playing, they seem to have a passion they were lacking early in the year. The Dolphins keep it close and cover but Denver keeps their playoff hopes alive with a win.

Straight: Broncos
Spread: Dolphins


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New York Jets (9-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (11-1)
Line: Jets +4

The Steeler fans weren?t too harsh this week because they knew that game against Jacksonville could have went either way. The Jets are the team I picked for the Super Bowl but they have to run the ball to be effective and that is a tall order against the Jets. The fact that John Abraham will miss this game for New York plays into the Steelers hands. The Steelers win this game by at least a touchdown.

Straight: Steelers
Spread: Steelers


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San Francisco 49ers (1-11) at Arizona Cardinals (4-8)
Line: 49ers +4

We have about 130 days until everyone starts paying attention to the 49ers. That will happen when we hear the phrase ?With the first pick in the NFL Draft?.?. Now comes word that starting running back Kevan Barlow and starting quarterback Tim Rattay will be out for this game. Ken Dorsey and Maurice Hicks do not seem to instill a winning attitude with me on this one.

Straight: Cardinals
Spread: Cardinals


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St. Louis Rams (6-6) at Carolina Panthers (5-7)
Line: Rams +6.5

Good thing this is a road game for the Rams. If they told Chris Chandler they were playing at home he may fly to Los Angeles, that is where the team played the last time he started a game for them. The Panthers are the hottest team in the NFC other than the Eagles and their streak will continue.

Straight: Panthers
Spread: Panthers


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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-7) at San Diego Chargers (9-3)
Line: Buccaneers +5.5

I will take the Chargers here because it looks like there are some favorable matchups for them in this game. If Tampa pulls the upset I will not be surprised. After the emotion following their hard fought win against Denver this has all the makings of the classic letdown game. I will take the Buccaneers against the spread for that reason, this game was the hardest of the 16 for me to call this week.

Straight: Chargers
Spread: Buccaneers


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Philadelphia Eagles (11-1) at Washington Redskins (4-8)
Line: Redskins +9.5

If you saw the Eagles defeat the Redskins a few weeks ago 28-6 you might think the Eagles have this game in the bag. The Redskins have a very tough defense and that game was 7-6 until five minutes to go in the third quarter. Philadelphia has dismantled the Redskins in Washington in recent years and if they win they clinch a first round bye in the playoffs. This will keep the Eagles focused as they against another NFC foe by double digits.

Straight: Eagles
Spread: Eagles


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[Senor Capper]

NFL week 14 analysis (J. Dulac, Pitt Post Gazette)

Gerry Dulac's NFL Forecast: 12/9/04


Thursday, December 09, 2004


Jets at Steelers



Time: 4:05 p.m. Sunday, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh


Records: Jets (9-3); Steelers (11-1)


The skinny: Each team can clinch a playoff spot with the victory, though the Steelers don't need any help. They will win the AFC North championship with a victory against New York, which has never beaten the Steelers on the road (0-5). The Jets, though, need to beat the Steelers and have the Bills lose at home to Cleveland to clinch a playoff spot. The Jets have won three in a row by allowing a total of 17 points in victories against the Browns, Cardinals and Texans, three of the lowest scoring teams in the league. The Steelers, who have won a league-best 10 in a row, are 14-2 against the Jets. Don't worry, the Steelers will not throw 38 times against the Jets, even if there is a snowstorm.


Prediction: Steelers, 20-10


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Giants at Ravens



Time: 1 p.m. Sunday at Baltimore, Md.


Records: Giants (5-7); Ravens (7-5)


The skinny: Baltimore has lost two in a row to all but hand the Steelers an early Christmas present, but the Ravens have also put themselves in a precarious position to make the playoffs. After New York, the Ravens have to play at Indianapolis and Heinz Field, putting them in danger of getting passed in the division standings by the charging Bengals, who rallied from a 17-point deficit to beat Baltimore, 27-26, last week. The Giants, meantime, have endured a longer slide than the Ravens, losing five in a row, including the past three with rookie quarterback Eli Manning. Still, in the weakened NFC, a victory will keep them in the hunt for a wild-card playoff spot. Go figure.


Prediction: Ravens, 23-9


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Browns at Bills



Time: 1 p.m. Sunday at Orchard Park, N. Y.


Records: Browns (3-9) Bills (6-6)


The skinny: It is approximately 190 miles between Buffalo and Cleveland, yet the Bills haven't played in Cleveland since 1986. They should feel right at home, though, along the Lake Erie shoreline. The Bills are one of the hottest teams in the league, winning three in a row and five of the past six to keep alive hopes of grabbing one of the two AFC wild-card playoff spot. After an 0-3 start, the Bills turnaround has been fueled by an offense that has scored 117 points in the past three games and averaged 27.2 points the past six. That does not bode well for the Browns, who have allowed 100 points in their past two games. They would do well just to bury their head in the sand and wait till next year.


Prediction: Bills, 31-21



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Bengals at Patriots



Time: 1 p.m. Sunday at Foxboro, Mass.


Records: Bengals (6-6); Patriots (11-1)


The skinny: Cincinnati finally beat a winning team on the road for the first time since 1991 when the Bengals rallied from a 17-point deficit to beat the Ravens. Now they get a chance to make it two in a row against the team that really wins - New England, which has won 26 of its last 27 games. To do so, they will have to stop their former teammate, running back Corey Dillon, who has seven 100-yard games for the Patriots and is third in the AFC in rushing with 1,221 yards. Quarterback Carson Palmer, who has engineered the past two comeback victories, has thrown more passes (408) than any other AFC quarterback, even Peyton Manning. The Steelers need the Bengals to do them a favor.


Prediction: Patriots, 28-24



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Raiders at Falcons

 

[Senor Capper]

Raiders at Falcons

Time: 1 p.m. Sunday at Atlanta


Records: Raiders (4-8); Falcons (9-3)


The skinny: How does a team with the second-best record in the conference, on the cusp on clinching the division title, get shutout by a team with four victories? It's easy.....Derrick Brooks. The Tampa Bay linebacker followed Michael Vick just about everywhere he went, and Vick had a tougher time shaking him than the upper-respiratory flu. By losing to the Bucs, Atlanta exposed itself as a team with a nice record but not much chance of advancing past the first round of the playoffs. Of course, in the NFC, the Falcons enjoy a comfortable cushion of being guaranteed a first-round bye. That is, unless the Falcons let themselves get beat by another team with four victories - the Raiders.


Prediction: Falcons, 31-13



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Saints at Cowboys



Time: 1 p.m. Sunday at Irving, Texas


Records: Saints (4-8); Cowboys (5-7)


The skinny: A Dallas team that looked as if it couldn't score 43 points in three games scored that many in Seattle, giving the Cowboys another rarity in a season of disarray - back-to-back victories. Goodness, the Cowboys might even make it three in a row against New Orleans, especially if history - the Saints are 0-9 lifetime in Dallas - holds true. Recent history could be a problem for the Saints, too. Their rush defense ranks last in the NFL, and stopping Cowboys rookie Julius Jones might be more difficult than Jim Haslett getting career victory No. 40. Jones, a No. 2 pick, had 198 yards and three touchdowns in the victory in Seattle, giving him 429 yards in his last three games.


Prediction: Cowboys, 28-20



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Colts at Texans



Time: 1 p.m. Sunday at Houston, Texas


Records: Colts (9-3); Texans (5-7)


The skinny: Houston is 3-1 in the AFC South, but the lone division loss was to Indianapolis...and it was convincing. The Colts won, 49-14, and - here's a surprise - Peyton Manning threw five touchdown passes. That was the first of four consecutive games in which the Colts have scored 40 or more points. They will set an NFL record if they make it five in a row, and the odds appear to be in their favor. The Colts have never lost to the Texans (5-0) and have scored 182 points in the past four games - the second-most points in a four-game span since 1970. Manning must be slumping. He threw only three touchdowns last week in a 51-24 victory against Tennessee, ending at five his streak of games with four or more touchdown passes.


Prediction: Colts, 41-24



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Bears at Jaguars



Time: 1 p.m. Sunday at Jacksonville, Fla.


Records: Bears (5-7); Jaguars (6-6)


The skinny: At 6-6, Jacksonville is all but eliminated from the playoff picture in the AFC, particularly because the Jets appear to have one of the wild-card spots secured and the Ravens and Broncos each have one fewer loss. But, at 5-7, Chicago is right in the hunt for a wild-card spot in the NFC, thanks to a division more watered-down than skim milk and a bunch of conference teams more rancid than three-day-old coffee. The Jaguars can't play much better than they did against the Steelers, and almost pulled off their fifth victory in the final minute. If Fred Taylor isn't too beat up from the pounding he took against the Steelers, he will have his sixth 100-yard game in a row against an NFC team.


Prediction: Jaguars, 19-14



====================

 

[Senor Capper]

Seahawks at Vikings



Time: 1 p.m. Sunday at Minneapolis, Minn.


Records: Seahawks (6-6); Vikings (7-5)


The skinny: They should call this the Westminster Kennel Club show because the Metrodome will be the site for a bunch of dogs masquerading as NFL teams. Despite massive doses of ineptitude, Seattle and Minnesota remain tied for the lead in their respective divisions, an indictment of the embarrassing quality of competition in the NFC. After a 3-0 start, the Seahawks have lost six of their past nine, including a debilitating 43-39 defeat to the Cowboys. The Vikings, meantime, are coming off a 24-14 loss to the Bears, who were starting a new quarterback for the first time. The Seahawks might be having flashbacks to last season when they lost in the Metrodome, 34-7. Bow-wow.


Prediction: Vikings, 34-30


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Lions at Packers



Time: 4:15 p.m. Sunday at Green Bay, Wisc.


Records: Lions (5-7); Packers (7-5)


The skinny: Most teams that lose five in a row to drop to 4-7 probably start focusing on next year. But, with one victory, Detroit can still focus not only on a playoff spot, but also a division title. Of course, to gain either, the Lions have to beat Green Bay, something they failed to do last month at home, 38-10. Then again, eight losses might be good enough to get a wild-card spot in the NFC. After winning six in a row, the Packers were hammered in Philadelphia, 47-17, slowing their post-season express. No matter. The Packers have won seven of the past eight against the Lions, averaging 35 points in their last two victories.


Prediction: Packers, 35-20

 

[Senor Capper]

Dolphins at Broncos



Time: 4:05 p.m. Sunday at Denver, Colo.


Records: Dolphins (2-10); Broncos (7-5)


The skinny: Miami fans are weary of their football team; the Dolphins are just plain ol' weary. Consider: This is their third game in a Pacific or Mountain time zone in the past four weeks. OK, the Dolphins stayed on the West Coast when they had back-to-back games in San Francisco and Seattle. But not too many teams can claim they change their watch more often than they post victories. The Dolphins have never lost a regular-season game to a team coached by Mike Shanahan (5-0), which might not be good news for a reeling Denver team. The Broncos, coming off a 20-17 loss to the Chargers, are 6-2 in their past eight home games.


Prediction: Broncos, 38-17





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49ers at Cardinals



Time: 4:15 p.m. Sunday at Tempe, Ariz.


Records: 49ers (1-11); Cardinals (4-8)


The skinny: The color analyst for the Fox broadcast should know a little something about teams with one victory - Dave Wannstedt, the former Miami coach. He should also know about rotating quarterbacks, which is what he had to do with the Dolphins before his resignation earlier this season. Arizona is going back to Josh McCown, who was the original starter before he was benched in mid-October. Little, though, has worked for the Cardinals, who need a quarterback to get the ball to the most talented young trio of receivers in the league. San Francisco, which managed just two field goals against a Rams team that couldn't stop Central Catholic, might be switching quarterbacks, too.


Prediction: Cardinals, 20-12




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Rams at Panthers



Time: 4:15 p.m. Sunday at Charlotte, N. C.


Records: Rams (6-6); Panthers (5-7)


The skinny: Aside from Seattle, the only bigger joke in the NFC is St. Louis, which, not surprisingly, plays in the same division as the Seahawks. Perhaps that's why those teams are tied for the lead in the NFC West - the NFL's version of the Big East Conference. The Rams, coming off an unimpressive 16-6 victory against the 49ers, have to use quarterback Chris Chandler, a 17-year veteran, to replace injured Marc Bulger. None of it will matter, though, against Carolina, which has won four in a row and, all of a sudden, is looking like a good bet for a wild-card playoff spot. The only way to stop defensive end Julius Peppers (seven sacks in the last five games) is to line him up at wide receiver, which the Panthers did last week.


Prediction: Panthers, 24-0





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Buccaneers at Chargers



Time: 4:15 p.m. Sunday at San Diego, Calif.


Records: Buccaneers (5-7); Chargers (9-3)


The skinny: After surprising and shutting out a team with only two losses last week, Tampa Bay will try to do the same - surprise, that is - a team with only three losses. But the Chargers are hotter than Mexican salsa, winning six in a row - second longest win streak behind the Steelers (10) - and looking for their first 10-win season since 1994. That, of course, was the year the Chargers surprised the Steelers in the AFC Championship game and went to the Super Bowl. Against the Falcons, the Buccaneers looked like they did when they won the Super Bowl two years ago. Curiously, that game was in San Diego. This is their first return since Super Bowl XXXVII.


Prediction: Chargers, 23-14




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Eagles at Redskins



Time: 8:30 p.m. Sunday at Landover, Md.


Records: Eagles (11-1); Redskins (4-8)


The skinny: There appears to be little about Philadelphia that isn't impressive. The Eagles are 9-0 in the conference, have beaten every NFC team by at least 10 points and can clinch a first-round playoff bye with a victory against Washington, a team they have beaten the past six meetings. What's more, if it wasn't for Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb would be the quarterback everyone is talking about. McNabb threw four touchdowns in the first half against the Packers, the fifth time this season he has thrown four or more touchdowns in a game. Also, he completed 24 consecutive passes over the past two games, breaking Joe Montana's record (22) for most in the NFL history. Not good news for the Redskins.


Prediction: Eagles, 24-13

 

[Senor Capper]

Somebodys touting the RAMS in an upset....


Sport:NFL - Football

Game:St. Louis Rams @ Carolina Panthers
Prediction:St. Louis Rams


Reason:St. Louis is coming off a less than impressive 16-6 win over the woeful 49ers as an 11-point home favorite. St. Louis held the 49ers offense to just 160 yards, but mind you SF carries a less than formidable 26th ranked offense in the NFL.

On the other side of the ball, Mike Martz?s bunch managed just one touchdown against the league?s second worst scoring defense. We should note that Chris Chandler (18/27, 216 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT) replaced Mark injured Bulger at the half. No word yet on whether Bulger (shoulder) will be available this week. In addition, Marshall Faulk is likely to miss another game with a knee injury.

The Rams are now 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS their last six games overall, as well as 2-4 both SU and ATS on the road for the season. Dating back further, the Lambs are a woeful 4-12 ATS their past sixteen on the NFC trail and 6-16 ATS their past twenty-two away from the Ed Jones Dome overall.

Meanwhile, Carolina won its fourth consecutive game both SU and ATS after baptizing the Saints 31-21 as a 2-point road favorite. The victory improved the Panthers to 5-7 SU and 7-5 ATS. This record is good enough for CAR to still possess hopes of a playoff birth in the watered down NFC. The Panthers recent streak has been fueled by three consecutive 100-yard rushing performances by RB Nick Going and a defense that has forced 15 turnovers and racked up 11 sacks in its past four tilts.

But before you go bet the Charlotte vacation house on the home team in this one, we should mention the ever present dog trend when the Cats take the field. That is, the underdog is 9-3 ATS in Carolina?s twelve games this season and a stunning 25-7 ATS the past thirty-two times they?ve taken the field. Moreover, CAR is 1-4 ATS as home chalk this season and a wallet busting 3-13 ATS their past sixteen regular season games when priced as a favorite. Hold your nose and take the points here, as the Panthers are simply not good enough to be laying a full TD to anyone at this point.

Prediction: St. Louis 23 ? Carolina 20

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