The return of Michael Porter is not a guarantee. He is medically cleared and no definitive decision has been made. Frankly, why would he play and risk dropping even further in the draft? Sure he could be a team player, and possibly improve his positioning in the draft. Yet it's more likely -- if his game is rusty and he struggles at all -- he could drop a few notches in the draft, which can mean move from a #5 (6/7 mill) to a #10+ (1 million). That's like going from arrow to T fresh. I think his dad is warning him against playing at this point. He could have played last Saturday but chose not to.
One of their starters -- Van Leer -- went down Saturday for the season, leaving Mizzou even thinner on the bench (they have eight scholarship players with both Porters). And Geist is now the starting guard I guess; that kid is turnover city under pressure and always seems to be on the floor when bad shit happens. Like in the illinois game (also at the Scottrade Center) where they could only score 22 points in the first half, and 14 of those were Barnett.
Now the good news: Even without Porter, the Tigers have been playing their best ball lately. That senior Barnett is on a mission. In the past seven games he has averaged 15.7 PPG. He is Mr Big Game as he scored 28 against Florida, and 16 vs. Handi's Kentucky squad. Also, he's a senior and he's from fckn' St. Louis.
I think it's worth a small play at 12:1. They should win their first game and then play Kentucky who they beat by 9 at home on Feb. 2. But then would come a semi-final vs. 1 seed, Auburn, most likely. Mizzou hung around with them in the previous meeting until about halfway through the second half, then lost 73-91.
If they get past all that they would possibly face Gators in Final. Missouri had Florida beat in Columbia and inexplicably choked it away on an in bound play at the end. But like you say, if they get to the final you are in position to hedge a bit. Man, I think Martin is one lousy game coach; almost as bad as Quinn Snyder. But the guys are inspired finally by their success and peaking at the right time as they say. I put $50 on them, but I wouldn't go air purifier money. GL D!