Yesterday's Recap:
Cards +130 Cubs Loss
Rockies -152 Astros Win
Giants - 140 Padres Win
Indians -114 Twins Win
Today I have three sides and two totals, and here goes:
Play: Mariners (Moyer)
Line: -190
Opponent: Rangers (Oliver)
I played this one on the overnight lines. It has gone up a touch. If you can find it at -210 or less it carries some value in my book. I think the Mariners win this one just over 7 out of 10 times. Oliver is absolutely horrible. I can't find one variable that falls definitely on the side of the Rangers. Anything can happen of course, but it would take a ton of luck on the side of the Rangers to win. I would like to play the Run Line, but as a rule I never like home teams while giving 1 1/2.
Play: Red Sox (Castillo)
Line: -168
Tigers (Mlicki)
After last nights 18 inning marathon both bullpens are used up and pretty much done for this one. So, you have to ask yourself would you rather back Castillo at home or Mlicki on the road. The offense is a touch better on the side of the Red Sox as well primarily due to Manny. Also, as pointed out in an earlier thread the home plate ump is a homer, Hirshbeck. Big line but two out of three times the Red Sox should win this matchup.
Play: Angels (Rapp)
Line: +136
Opponent: A's (Hudson)
I guess I should have waited a touch to play this one as I see you can get even more value on the Angles if you play it now. If you look at the stats on this one it is pretty much even. Hudson's ERA is over two runs higher on the road. Rapp is a consumate innings eater that will give you a solid start. I really like the bullpen of the Angels + they are at home. Just can't pass up a home team that seems pretty even at +136.
Play: Braves Vs. Expos Under
Burkett Vs. Irabu
Line: Under 9 -107
Plain and simple it seems to me the percentages fall on the side of this one going under a run per inning. Burkett has thrown one good consistent start after another. Irabu's first outing of the year was solid. The hitting on both sides is really shaky. There were only two starters in last nights lineup above .300, Curtis Pride at .305 and Vlady at .315 (around there). The Braves play tremendous defense to boot. Olympic Stadium is a fair park to pitchers as well.
Play: Astros Vs. Rockies Over
Elarton Vs. Bohanon
Line: Over 14 1/2 -107
Well, start with the obvious this one is at Coors. Next, the Astros pound lefties and the Rockies pound righties. Bohanon hasn't had a decent start at home all year, on the road he is somewhat solid. Elarton has been giving up runs as if they are a two for one sale. The line at 14 1/2 seems like the linemakers just put it up because that is what it is supposed to be at Coors, or around there. To me this one has a much better chance of hitting 20 than being under 14.
Good luck to all,
Happy
Cards +130 Cubs Loss
Rockies -152 Astros Win
Giants - 140 Padres Win
Indians -114 Twins Win
Today I have three sides and two totals, and here goes:
Play: Mariners (Moyer)
Line: -190
Opponent: Rangers (Oliver)
I played this one on the overnight lines. It has gone up a touch. If you can find it at -210 or less it carries some value in my book. I think the Mariners win this one just over 7 out of 10 times. Oliver is absolutely horrible. I can't find one variable that falls definitely on the side of the Rangers. Anything can happen of course, but it would take a ton of luck on the side of the Rangers to win. I would like to play the Run Line, but as a rule I never like home teams while giving 1 1/2.
Play: Red Sox (Castillo)
Line: -168
Tigers (Mlicki)
After last nights 18 inning marathon both bullpens are used up and pretty much done for this one. So, you have to ask yourself would you rather back Castillo at home or Mlicki on the road. The offense is a touch better on the side of the Red Sox as well primarily due to Manny. Also, as pointed out in an earlier thread the home plate ump is a homer, Hirshbeck. Big line but two out of three times the Red Sox should win this matchup.
Play: Angels (Rapp)
Line: +136
Opponent: A's (Hudson)
I guess I should have waited a touch to play this one as I see you can get even more value on the Angles if you play it now. If you look at the stats on this one it is pretty much even. Hudson's ERA is over two runs higher on the road. Rapp is a consumate innings eater that will give you a solid start. I really like the bullpen of the Angels + they are at home. Just can't pass up a home team that seems pretty even at +136.
Play: Braves Vs. Expos Under
Burkett Vs. Irabu
Line: Under 9 -107
Plain and simple it seems to me the percentages fall on the side of this one going under a run per inning. Burkett has thrown one good consistent start after another. Irabu's first outing of the year was solid. The hitting on both sides is really shaky. There were only two starters in last nights lineup above .300, Curtis Pride at .305 and Vlady at .315 (around there). The Braves play tremendous defense to boot. Olympic Stadium is a fair park to pitchers as well.
Play: Astros Vs. Rockies Over
Elarton Vs. Bohanon
Line: Over 14 1/2 -107
Well, start with the obvious this one is at Coors. Next, the Astros pound lefties and the Rockies pound righties. Bohanon hasn't had a decent start at home all year, on the road he is somewhat solid. Elarton has been giving up runs as if they are a two for one sale. The line at 14 1/2 seems like the linemakers just put it up because that is what it is supposed to be at Coors, or around there. To me this one has a much better chance of hitting 20 than being under 14.
Good luck to all,
Happy
