So I have decided after looking over some things to focus strictly on the American League, as I did last year. I feel like I know the teams better and I prefer the higher scoring league to the more pitching-oriented league. Had been putting together a database on the teams so far and have tweaked together some formulas to my liking (seemed to work much better with the AL squads).
I will be using 2 different books (Pinnacle and Olympic) and will list where I get the lines. You won't see me laying too much wood, if any. I prefer taking the RL to laying -150+. We'll see how that works.
Wednesday Picks:
Ana Washburn -1.5 -112 (Pinnacle) @ Cle Anderson
Cleveland is slumping having lost their last 7 games. If they are going to break that streak, Washburn is not a guy they want to face. Anaheim has scored 134 runs to the Tribes 89. I think the RL is a safe bet here.
Bal Lopez -1.5 +116 (Pinnacle) @ Det Maroth
Detroit...enough said. Maroth is a decent pitcher and Rodrigo has been less effective than he was last year, as I suspect batters have adjusted to him. However, Detroit has no hitters, plain and simple. Unless Detroit pitchers are flawless, they are going to lose lots of ball games. Detroit's team OPS is .506, a whole .250 points below the AL average...that is sick!
Kan May @ Bos Lowe Over 9.5 -104 (Pinnacle)
Don't be deceived, Lowe is not pitching nearly as well as he did last year. In fact, he is probably the worst pitcher of the Red Sox starters so far this year (could argue for Burkett). What scares me the most is that he has only lasted 25.1 innings in his 5 starts, and if the Boston bullpen gets to work that early in the game (in the 5th inning or so), all hell can break loose. Besides the Rangers, this pen is absolutely horrible. I also tend to believe that May has been the weak link in the Royals staff, despite only 3 starts. Two solid offenses, a hitter friendly ballpark and a predicted 13 runs, and I like the over.
Sea Moyer @ Nyy Pettite Under 9.0 -116 (Pinnacle)
My prediction has this game right at 9 to 10 runs, but I feel it will stay under the posted total. Moyer has been on fire this year, allowing only 10 ER's in his 5 starts. Seattle's bullpen is one of the AL's finest, and I think they are the x-factor for this team's success. The Yankees are not hitting and there confidence is down with the 2 game losing streak. A good pitcher's battle here...don't be surpised to see less than 10 hits combined in this one.
Tex Drese @ Tor Sturtze Over 10.5 -125 (Olympic)
Every angle I see points to the Over, it's almost scary. They put a heavy price on the line for a total, and I fully expect this total to hit 11 tomorrow. May actually be able to pick up some value playing it then with reduced vig, but I prefer the 1/2 point on the even-numbered line. Drese has averaged about 3 innings of work so far this year in his 3 starts...NOT GOOD. The more action the Rangers bullpen gets, the more offense the Blue Jays will put up. I have this one well above the listed total of 10.5, as the predicted total is 14.
That wraps it up, any questions/comments are welcome.
Good luck to all,
MasterTX
I will be using 2 different books (Pinnacle and Olympic) and will list where I get the lines. You won't see me laying too much wood, if any. I prefer taking the RL to laying -150+. We'll see how that works.
Wednesday Picks:
Ana Washburn -1.5 -112 (Pinnacle) @ Cle Anderson
Cleveland is slumping having lost their last 7 games. If they are going to break that streak, Washburn is not a guy they want to face. Anaheim has scored 134 runs to the Tribes 89. I think the RL is a safe bet here.
Bal Lopez -1.5 +116 (Pinnacle) @ Det Maroth
Detroit...enough said. Maroth is a decent pitcher and Rodrigo has been less effective than he was last year, as I suspect batters have adjusted to him. However, Detroit has no hitters, plain and simple. Unless Detroit pitchers are flawless, they are going to lose lots of ball games. Detroit's team OPS is .506, a whole .250 points below the AL average...that is sick!
Kan May @ Bos Lowe Over 9.5 -104 (Pinnacle)
Don't be deceived, Lowe is not pitching nearly as well as he did last year. In fact, he is probably the worst pitcher of the Red Sox starters so far this year (could argue for Burkett). What scares me the most is that he has only lasted 25.1 innings in his 5 starts, and if the Boston bullpen gets to work that early in the game (in the 5th inning or so), all hell can break loose. Besides the Rangers, this pen is absolutely horrible. I also tend to believe that May has been the weak link in the Royals staff, despite only 3 starts. Two solid offenses, a hitter friendly ballpark and a predicted 13 runs, and I like the over.
Sea Moyer @ Nyy Pettite Under 9.0 -116 (Pinnacle)
My prediction has this game right at 9 to 10 runs, but I feel it will stay under the posted total. Moyer has been on fire this year, allowing only 10 ER's in his 5 starts. Seattle's bullpen is one of the AL's finest, and I think they are the x-factor for this team's success. The Yankees are not hitting and there confidence is down with the 2 game losing streak. A good pitcher's battle here...don't be surpised to see less than 10 hits combined in this one.
Tex Drese @ Tor Sturtze Over 10.5 -125 (Olympic)
Every angle I see points to the Over, it's almost scary. They put a heavy price on the line for a total, and I fully expect this total to hit 11 tomorrow. May actually be able to pick up some value playing it then with reduced vig, but I prefer the 1/2 point on the even-numbered line. Drese has averaged about 3 innings of work so far this year in his 3 starts...NOT GOOD. The more action the Rangers bullpen gets, the more offense the Blue Jays will put up. I have this one well above the listed total of 10.5, as the predicted total is 14.
That wraps it up, any questions/comments are welcome.
Good luck to all,
MasterTX
