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BleedDodgerBlue

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I had planned on writing lengthy write-ups on these today, but I will get to them shortly. Will just post what I perceive to be the best value on the board right now:

BEST BET BY FAR:

Chicago White Sox ton win AL Central + 432
1000/4320

back that bet up with Twinkies to win
AL Central -131

1310/1000 on twinkies.
Twinkies win break even White Sox win +3010

KC no chance, Detroit not ready yet, Cleveland needs all the stars aligned, don't have the arms yet. Defnitely have the bats, but bullpen is scary.

IMO, no way do the WS or TWINS not win the division. Probable freeroll for the team I think wins, the white sox.

WRITE UPS TO FOLLOW
 
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Scott4USC

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I like your thinking and I might jump on with you if the value is still there. Where did you get the lines?

Last year I had 2k to win 30k on Angels to win WS and 1k to win 6.5k on Red Sox to win WS. Thinking about betting Yankees big to win WS.
 

BleedDodgerBlue

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Scott, lines at pinnacle

yankees will make post season, don't they always. Plenty of time to hedge once they get there, problem is there is almost ZERO value in that bet. you get arguably the best team, but still only one of the ten legitimate contenders and the current price is only +130. Them odds are awful. good luck either way you play it, but personally at only +130 (pinnacle) not worth it IMO. To win the AL is +102. Odds are worse, but then you don't have to worry about the series.

gl
 

Davoso

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I posted something similar last year when Sox were +150 and Minny was +175. Thought this was easy $$ as I did not see anyone other than either one of those teams winning the division.
 

Scott4USC

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BleedDodgerBlue

I was looking into your 2 future wagers and came across 3 well respected sportsbooks offering lines on this prop. Olympic, Pinnacle and Betwwts. Both have same prop bet and here are the odds. Take a look at difference in the Detroit line. Guess some people pounded Detroit. Maybe they are a surprise team. Anyways, good luck on your wager.

As for Yankees, i agree with you its not great value but I think they are gonna win it all. This is what I have on it right now. I got +250 at betwwts and at most places its under +150. So got "some" value right there. :)

PROPOSITION
2005 WORLD SERIES [2020] NEW YORK YANKEES +250
Risking $500.00 to win $1,250.00


Pinnacle

2005 American League Divisional Odds: AL Central
Mon 2/28 Odds To Win AL Central

Chicago White Sox +432
Cleveland Indians +305
Detroit Tigers +632
Kansas City Royals +5000
Minnesota Twins -131

Olympic

4/4/2005 1:00 PM Team to win the Central Divison in American League

Chicago White Sox +425
Cleveland Indians +315
Detroit Tigers +295
Kansas City Royals +5000
Minnesota Twins -135

Betwwts

2005 AL CENTRAL Odds
01-Oct---08:00p 2200 ODDS TO WIN

CHICAGO WHITE SOX +400
MINNESOTA TWINS -120
KANSAS CITY ROYALS +2500
CLEVELAND INDIANS +240
DETROIT TIGERS +400
 
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BleedDodgerBlue

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Sun Tzu:
"I would actually give Detroit a better chance of winning the division than the pale hose."

WHY?

not disrespecting you or your opinions, just curious as to why you don't like the white sox chances.

Ozzie Guillen unfortunately came into managing this team a couple years too late. The talent was there for them to win the central two years ago. I've said it before and I'll say it again, Jerry Manuel was one of the worst game time managers in baseball. Guillen might not be much better, but players respond to him, and I believe that he got the most out of his players last year. Sophmore year should be a little smoother.

Remember, im betting that one of the top teams will be the twins or the white sox. I think there is value with the white sox, and if they don't win then i break dead even if twinkies do.

Starting staff for Sox:
Mark Burhle: career 69-45 16-10 last year
Freddy Garcia: carer 85-54 9-4(with sox) last year
El Duque: career: 61-40 8-2(with yanks)last yer
Jose Contreras: career: 20-11
John Garland career: 46-51

picking up contreras allowed them to move garland to 5 and if he can't handle it Cotts and Hermanson can spot start. They badly needed a 5th starter and got it.

Bullpen: Takatso is a pretty darn good closer. Koch was never the same when he went to the Sox and played like garbage there. Getting rid of him allowed Takatso to shine, although the guy got no national publicity. He saved 19 and I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I doubt he blew more than 3. He's not a hurler whos gonna blow it by you, but he knows how to pitch and proved he has mentality to close last year. Marte is great as a setup guy, as the majority of his crap outings have been trying to close, or mop up innings. he has the stuff, mentality is his question mark. Hermanson had the arm when he first came up with expos but never developed. Had a good 2003, but faltered last year.

Position: Losing Mags was a blow, but he didn't play much last year. Frank Thomas is a hall of famer, but he won't make the hall. Make sense? He won't be ready to start the year, and he really is a question mark. Konerko is the most fluent swing in baseball. Really struggled last year, if he gets back to 2003 numbers hes an All-Star. Crede is the sox future star for five years running now and he's been average, but has all the potential. Uribe can hit, Pierzynski is a huge unknown what he will do. Even more unknown is Tadahito Iguchi from Japan. A real stud over there, but who knows how he fares in the states. He can't be any worse than Willie Harris, so that's an upgrade if they were gonna put willie at 2nd.

Playing in comiskey is a hitters dream (i refuse to call it cellular field) Pitching is a key, and Sox have it.

The main competition in the division is the twinkies. Their staff:

Santana (no stats needed, STUD)
Radke career .500 pitcher 127-118
Kyle Lohse nice young 40-39 pitcher, but struggled big time last year 9-13 with a 5.34 era
Carlos Silva Real good young arm
Joe Mays, pretty poor pitcher coming off missing an entire year due to injury.

Bullpen: Everyday Eddie bit the farm and went to the ICHIROS last year. Nathan had an All-Star year last year with 44 saves. Pitched Nails in big innings.

Position Players: Is there a better outfield in the American league than Stewart, Hunter, and Jones. Maybe, but not many. Great fielders and they can all flat out hit. Their infield is average devensively and BELOW average with the bats. Morneau, Rivas, Punto and Cuddyer hardly strike fear in any pitchers mind. Mauer is a nice prospect with tons of publicity, but his rookie campaign was all injuries.

I'm too tired to get deep into the Tigers tonight Tzu

Their staff:
Jason Johnson: last year 8-15 5.13 ERA
Mike Maroth: last year 11-13 4.31 ERA lost 20 games in 2003
Jeremy Bonderman:last year11-13 4.89 ERA
Nate Robertson: last year 12-10 4.90 ERA
Gary Knotts: last year 7-6 5.25 ERA

Bullpen: Love the edition of Percival, but he is nearing the end of his career. I also really like Ugeth Urbina. But you can absolutely count this team out if Kyle Farnsworth gets in the game in any kind of meaningful situation.

Bats: Only meaningful ones are Ordonez (who knows how healthy he really is). Pudge, and Guilen.

Look, there staff isn't a bad group if you want 5 pitchers who are all trying to learn to win. They are definitely on the rise, but aren't ready yet IMO

gl will add more later
 

Scott4USC

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You sure seem to know your stuff. Great analysis. Is MLB your best sport handicapping? If so, will you be posting your MLB plays on a daily basis? What is your strategy betting MLB? I would appreciate any info you are willing to provide about yourself and success in MLB capping. Thanks. Baseball is not my best sport handicapping so I usually pick a few posters on this site and sorta do my handicapping after seeing their selections and taking the teams I agree with. I do the same with NCAA hoops.
 
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Marra

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BleedDodger-

As a huge Sox fan, you know your stuff for being a Dodger fan-just a couple of things-

Konerko had a great season last year, going .277 with 41 HR's and 117 RBI's...going back to 2003 form for Konerko is when he went .234 18HR's and 65. God awful.. and with the loss of Lee and Frank Thomas a question mark until proven otherwise,, that can't happen. It shouldn't though...he is in a contract year.

Badly needing a 5th starter is an understatement. The White Sox are always under the radar, so not many people realize this, but I think the 5th starter started 28 games, and the Sox won 5 of those games. The ERA in that game was near 7 :scared ...Jon Garland is one of the best 5th starters in baseball now. He was #3 on the staff last year.

And we are in complete agreement about the Tigers. There is no reason anyone should be placing money on them to win the division when Jason Johnson is your opening day starter. Period. Pitching wins games, and the Sox and Twins are FAR superior to the rest of the teams.

I also dont' want people to get the wrong impression that the Sox are losing "all of this power" b/c they lost Maggs and CLee. CLee is a loss, no doubt. .285 30 and 100 from him is hard to replace. Maggs, OTOH, isn't a loss compared to last year, when he didn't play. I count

7 guys that can hit 20 or more HR's in the lineup (Rowand, Konerko, Thomas, Everett, Uribe, Crede and Dye) and Podsednik/A.J. Pryz are good for 10 each. That is 160 homers, and that is being very conservative. So I don't think they lost as much power as the media has led everyone to believe.

All in all, the White Sox +3 or 4 to one is rediculous value, and that is not as a homer. Not to mention Santana was rated as a large injury risk by Baseball Prospectus, as his innings have dramatically increased the last 3 years...if he goes down, it's lights out for the Twinkies.

We shall see...should be a good season, but don't pass up the value on the Sox.
 

BleedDodgerBlue

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Scott,

yes baseball is my best handicapping sport. I follow it more than anything else. From a capping viewpoint and a fan viewpoint(i never bet dodger games). I said before I run a service and I don't know if I can post on a regular basis. I will never give out my service name or try and get a client base from MJ's. This site is something fun for me. I've been doing it for a while and like to keep it small and manageable. It's not always about the money. You will never see a post from me announcing me going pay. I respect almost everyone on the board here and whatever they want to do. Countinguy is a great guy and I have no problem with what he did and wish him all the best. Fletcher is a real stand-up guy from what I can tell and I hope to meet him some time to shoot the chit. He does what I havent been able to yet. He can run his service and give winners out on this site. I tried that during the NBA and not only had a poor start to the season, was giving out a few more losers than winners here (down 3 or 4 units i think)
So I will post what I can. I'm not better than anyone else, or claim to win people riches, but like fletcher, whatever I post I do play also. Nothing sux like giving out losers, but all you can do is cap your best and play what you feel is the right side and hope the breaks go your way.

Baseball for the first month is basically a crap shoot. Pre-season baseball is even worse. I would never wager on it. (some people will win at it and i wish them the best, but it sure isn't for me. thats real gambling) In baseball pitching is everything. Umpires are important to. IE posts some great info on that which you can find at other sites as well.

In anything, try and learn, but as with anything else, follow whoevers hot if you coattail even if it is beantownjim.

Marra:
I'm not a Sox fan, but I don't mind them either. I think at the odds I got they got great value that I can freeroll by getting the twinkies as well. I did have my konerko seasons mixed up, but I know he got off real slow last year. I don't mind the sox losing Lee, because it just seemed to me he wasn't clutch. I see a ton of games with the dish and I don't remember him ever doing anything clutch. Hes a liability in left and can go in unheard of slumps. His 30 game or whatever hit streak last year wasn't all that impressive because he basically went 1-4 in most of the games.

You are right, Garland is a #3 pitcher on most teams. Be interesting to see how Everett and Dye play this year as well. Hit or miss with those guys.

gl
 

MyAddidas

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Could not agree more on Jerry Manuel. Pretty sure I could've won the division with the squad he had. Fletcher for sure.

Worst handler of a pitching staff I have ever seen. The bullpen especially. He also started Bartolo's into a downslide that he is still reeling from imo.
 
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