MLB MON 04052010 - Early Thoughts & Value Hunting

[40seven]

I am starting this thread to spark a discussion. I will check on it for the first 10 days or so to keep it going. I am part of the NBA forum and since Ax has left it has become more a place to post picks not a discussion.

I would love to see a discussion forum and a place to help each other find a play worthy of our money.

Baseball is a long season so lets start slow.


BOLTA

 

[40seven]

Early games.

Early games.

I like the Mets to win today. they have a decent offense and Johan can still pitch.

IMHO the Mets will struggle with pitching but not this guys. The Fish have a strong public percentage.


Also, I like the Cards Haarang has looked awful this spring and the Cards are going to light him up, The question is how many runs will the Reds score. Maybe an Over play?

Finally, I like the Nat's WOW ok I said it. The Nat's have there best pitcher pitching and they have a good lineup. This is a big let down situation for Roy H.

Now what do you think?

 

[40seven]

What is Value?

What is Value?

In baseball it is the weight of how often do you think you will get the outcome you believe adjusted for the odds provided.

The Nats today at +180. If you believe they have a 50/50 chance at winning you have value in the wager.

Never bet a gamer just for the odds if you do not believe a team has a greater than 50/50 chance at winning you should never bet them no matter the odds.

That is why you are looking for the one or two plays a day that can make some money.

From now until May 6 I will just be fooling around and logging info so i can start really narrow it down.

Again BOLTA and welcome to the discussion.

 

[shawn555]

I am looking at playing the reds, line seems to be dropping with the majority on the cards.

Also first innings runs scored in detroit kc and milwaukee colorado games.

Also like the over 8 1/2 in the pirates dodgers game.

Over 15-4 last 19 @ pittsburgh, weather should be warm ball should be flying out.

 

[40seven]

at 1

at 1

I am playing the Mets and the Nat's on the RL -1 1/2 at +120.


I see good value in these plays BOLTA

The Mets they are home and at home that edge plus OD they usually win.

Nat's these guys are better then you think and with a low scoring game the extra runs are worth is.

 

[40seven]

Next

Next

Playing the Cubs and the Indians!

BOLTA

had the Dodgers but got sidetracked with MLB gameday down I missed it!

 

[grindstone]

I am starting this thread to spark a discussion. I will check on it for the first 10 days or so to keep it going. I am part of the NBA forum and since Ax has left it has become more a place to post picks not a discussion.

I would love to see a discussion forum and a place to help each other find a play worthy of our money.

Baseball is a long season so lets start slow.


BOLTA

Hey 40Seven MLB is here glad you started this thread. Baseball is not my strongest sport for me to handicap, therefore hopefully I can learn from you guys. Will check in to see what is going on.

GL my friend

 

[40seven]

Thanks buddy

Thanks buddy

Hey 40Seven MLB is here glad you started this thread. Baseball is not my strongest sport for me to handicap, therefore hopefully I can learn from you guys. Will check in to see what is going on.

GL my friend

Hopefully we can soon